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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals - Part 2 (The 2020 Draft)

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caesar88 said:
This.

If Hawthorn are lucky, DGB, the kid they just used essentially a top 5 pick on, will be as good as James Sicily (pick 56), Harris Andrews (pick 61), Luke Ryan (pick 66), Jeremy McGovern (rookie), Dane Rampe (rookie), Tom Jonas (rookie), Dylan Grimes (pre-season draft), Sam Collins (delisted free agent), or even former star defenders like Heath Grundy (rookie) or Josh Gibson (rookie).

It is not easy to develop a star defender, but it is the easiest to develop from a low base. More than any supporter base, I would expect Swans fans to recognise this, given our 2012 premiership defence literally consisted of a pick 57, a pick 64, two rookies, and three discards from other clubs.

And while I can understand the logic of saving ourselves the guesswork and the years of development by recruiting a junior defender who already has all the makings of a star, I believe a top 5 pick should be used on a talent that you're unlikely to find at any other stage of the draft. Highly skilful midfielders and prolific key forwards are a lot harder to come by once you get out of the first round of a draft, even once you get past the top 10, unless you have a ridiculous draft pool like that of 2018.

But I don't know why I'm arguing this case. I think the actions of the two clubs involved here just prove it. Swans have a choice between DGB & McDonald, they take the prolific key forward over the defender. Hawks have the choice between DGB & Campbell, they take the highly skilful midfielder over the defender.

It is not being appreciated enough what a massive bullet we dodged, and what a massive opportunity we capitalised on.
Click to expand...
This.
Do I ever stop to think during swans games... " gee I wish we had better and more daring defence unit'.....
No.
Thats purely the unit the swans have the most talent in developing from a low base .
People kicking goals on the other hand...........
 
RUNVS said:
Well we aren't getting McCartin, and we just drafted a player who plays in a position we don't need.
Click to expand...
think Malceski... and perhaps we don't need him now, which is lucky because he's 17 and built like a stick!!!

But what about in 3-4 years, when he's 20-21, there's no Rampe, no Fox... and he's had four years of development, and we're right in the middle of the window? Would you like a Malceski type to pop up then? Because (imo) that is the aim of this pick...
 
Kirkswan said:
think Malceski... and perhaps we don't need him now, which is lucky because he's 17 and built like a stick!!!

But what about in 3-4 years, when he's 20-21, there's no Rampe, no Fox... and he's had four years of development, and we're right in the middle of the window? Would you like a Malceski type to pop up then? Because (imo) that is the aim of this pick...
Click to expand...

To add a bit of trivia and speculation:

They say "they are a happy team at Hawthorn " (family club) claimed also by Essendon LOL! ,and at Collingwood they "side by side stick together" LOL!

But Swans make no secret of the objective is to select quality persons and have a tight knit get along group (OK sometimes that goes wrong)

Sturt and Norwood tend to be SANFL clubs that focus on the well educated private school lads. They often board (have been away from home)

Interestingly Malachy ... went to St Peters. The same school as Dylan Stephens and the same school as CEO Tom Harley.

Maybe Beatson et al " Dylan ... is there anyone you know of that you think is a quality mature person with a big footy future upside in SA?"
Dylan: "Well there is a younger bloke I played with, that is really dedicated I think big upside, you should have a good look at Malachy Curruthers!"

Harley is in constant contact with scouts at St Peters!
 
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RobbieK said:
When you are drafting 18 year olds on the Rookie List it isn't to address an immediate need.

I don't think we need McCartin after McDonald fell to our pick.
Click to expand...

Yeh I think this is right - I suspect rookie picks are more regularly about taking 1-year flyers on kids who the recruiters think have the best shot of making it or showing enough in that first year to indicate they might.
 
Corpuscles said:
To add a bit of trivia and speculation:

They say "they are a happy team at Hawthorn " (family club) claimed also by Essendon LOL! ,and at Collingwood they "side by side stick together" LOL!

But Swans make no secret of the objective is to select quality persons and have a tight knit get along group (OK sometimes that goes wrong)

Sturt and Norwood tend to be SANFL clubs that focus on the well educated private school lads. They often board (have been away from home)

Interestingly Malachy ... went to St Peters. The same school as Dylan Stephens and the same school as CEO Tom Harley.

Maybe Beatson et al " Dylan ... is there anyone you know of that you think is a quality mature person with a big footy future upside in SA?"
Dylan: "Well there is a younger bloke I played with, that is really dedicated I think big upside, you should have a good look at Malachy Curruthers!"
Click to expand...
Similar to Jordan Dawson. He played for Sturt as well, went to Scotch, when we picked him it was considered a little bit out of left field but we clearly had reasons for seeing him as a fit for the club.
 
RobbieK said:
Similar to Jordan Dawson. He played for Sturt as well, went to Scotch, when we picked him it was considered a little bit out of left field but we clearly had reasons for seeing him as a fit for the club.
Click to expand...

Yep, forgot to mention Will Hayward St Peters also. Build the stay, and get along (already good mates) factor!
 
Corpuscles said:
Yep, forgot to mention Will Hayward St Peters also. Build the stay, and get along (already good mates) factor!
Click to expand...
Gould another recent South Australian addition... and in the last couple of years there are a few Western Australians too (McDonald, Warner, Taylor), Hard not to think that we are favouring them ahead of Victorians as lower "go home" risks...
 
RobbieK said:
When you are drafting 18 year olds on the Rookie List it isn't to address an immediate need.

I don't think we need McCartin after McDonald fell to our pick.
Click to expand...
I think we do still need McCartin. Our current forwards are:
-Buddy
-Reid
-Sinclair
-McLean
-McDonald

Buddy, Reid & Sinclair wont be around for very long. So we've put all faith in 2 kids who haven't proven yet that they're AFL material. Take the 24yr old key forward who will be around for 7 more years. It's not crazy to imagine a reality in 2021 where McCartin, McDonald & McLean are our only fit key forwards in 2021
 
BloodySwan said:
I think we do still need McCartin. Our current forwards are:
-Buddy
-Reid
-Sinclair
-McLean
-McDonald

Buddy, Reid & Sinclair wont be around for very long. So we've put all faith in 2 kids who haven't proven yet that they're AFL material. Take the 24yr old key forward who will be around for 7 more years. It's not crazy to imagine a reality in 2021 where McCartin, McDonald & McLean are our only fit key forwards in 2021
Click to expand...
Is McCartin going to be around for 7 more years? He has a very major injury cloud hanging over him and even if he is deemed fit to play, just one more concussion and he would have to retire. There is a reason why he hasn't been on a list for 12 months, and may never get back on one.
 
RobbieK said:
Gould another recent South Australian addition... and in the last couple of years there are a few Western Australians too (McDonald, Warner, Taylor), Hard not to think that we are favouring them ahead of Victorians as lower "go home" risks...
Click to expand...

It was somewhat skewed this year as at least they (recruiters) saw them play .

But sure Vic's have 10 options to lure them back, others only 2.

I think Logan McDonald a risk.
BUT one that had to be taken. Ideal needs (tall KPF) for the future pick , and seems a humble dedicated sort of lad.
Hopefully a 250+gamer SWAN!
 
caesar88 said:
This.

If Hawthorn are lucky, DGB, the kid they just used essentially a top 5 pick on, will be as good as James Sicily (pick 56), Harris Andrews (pick 61), Luke Ryan (pick 66), Jeremy McGovern (rookie), Dane Rampe (rookie), Tom Jonas (rookie), Dylan Grimes (pre-season draft), Sam Collins (delisted free agent), or even former star defenders like Heath Grundy (rookie) or Josh Gibson (rookie).

It is not easy to develop a star defender, but it is the easiest to develop from a low base. More than any supporter base, I would expect Swans fans to recognise this, given our 2012 premiership defence literally consisted of a pick 57, a pick 64, two rookies, and three discards from other clubs.

And while I can understand the logic of saving ourselves the guesswork and the years of development by recruiting a junior defender who already has all the makings of a star, I believe a top 5 pick should be used on a talent that you're unlikely to find at any other stage of the draft. Highly skilful midfielders and prolific key forwards are a lot harder to come by once you get out of the first round of a draft, even once you get past the top 10, unless you have a ridiculous draft pool like that of 2018.

But I don't know why I'm arguing this case. I think the actions of the two clubs involved here just prove it. Swans have a choice between DGB & McDonald, they take the prolific key forward over the defender. Hawks have the choice between DGB & Campbell, they take the highly skilful midfielder over the defender.

It is not being appreciated enough what a massive bullet we dodged, and what a massive opportunity we capitalised on.
Click to expand...
Yes and noooooo.

Firstly, yes, I think Forwards, at least the best tall forwards, can only be found at the top of the draft. The only real exception has been Ben Brown, and maybe Hawkins. Defenders CAN be found anywhere, and I do think that means you should take the tall forward. But there are two things I want to address.

1. Your love of midfielders. Midfielders are much closer to Key defenders in their distribution than Key forwards. I had Phillips over DGB, but I also had McDonald over Phillips. In the last 10 years only 3 Brownlows were top 10 selections, 2 top 20, 2 top 40, 2 after 50, and 1 in the rookie, which is pretty much throwing darts blind imo.
I think the logic you use in choosing Phillips is similar to the logic that a lot of us wanted DGB, a real once in a blue moon talent despite the position. It has been seen that you can get a basic accumulating midfielder anywhere, much the same you can get a KPD anywhere, or an intercepting anywhere. They still have something as players that warrant a top 5 pick.

2. KPD taken high can turn into KPF, ala Naughton, or can just be amazing players, Moore, Rance, Vlaustin, and Balta.

My heart did get involved on draft night since I loved DGB's interview.

On that note, I think McDonald is a bet that you have to take, and I would have wanted Sydney to take him even if Phillips was available.
You have to take that risk at the top of the draft to find talents that won't be there later.
 

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caesar88 said:
This.

If Hawthorn are lucky, DGB, the kid they just used essentially a top 5 pick on, will be as good as James Sicily (pick 56), Harris Andrews (pick 61), Luke Ryan (pick 66), Jeremy McGovern (rookie), Dane Rampe (rookie), Tom Jonas (rookie), Dylan Grimes (pre-season draft), Sam Collins (delisted free agent), or even former star defenders like Heath Grundy (rookie) or Josh Gibson (rookie).

It is not easy to develop a star defender, but it is the easiest to develop from a low base. More than any supporter base, I would expect Swans fans to recognise this, given our 2012 premiership defence literally consisted of a pick 57, a pick 64, two rookies, and three discards from other clubs.

And while I can understand the logic of saving ourselves the guesswork and the years of development by recruiting a junior defender who already has all the makings of a star, I believe a top 5 pick should be used on a talent that you're unlikely to find at any other stage of the draft. Highly skilful midfielders and prolific key forwards are a lot harder to come by once you get out of the first round of a draft, even once you get past the top 10, unless you have a ridiculous draft pool like that of 2018.

But I don't know why I'm arguing this case. I think the actions of the two clubs involved here just prove it. Swans have a choice between DGB & McDonald, they take the prolific key forward over the defender. Hawks have the choice between DGB & Campbell, they take the highly skilful midfielder over the defender.

It is not being appreciated enough what a massive bullet we dodged, and what a massive opportunity we capitalised on.
Click to expand...
Hawthorn took DGB over Hollands.

We won’t know if the correct choice was made until 2023.
 
I've also noticed how we are barely touching Victorian kids, it would be interesting to see if this is a coincidence, or if we are being extra cautious regarding Vic kids
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Hawthorn took DGB over Hollands.

We won’t know if the correct choice was made until 2023.
Click to expand...

I loved Hollands and was second on my board (live selections available) but I do admit there is risk attached. Could be the best player in the draft or could be a bust due to injuries.
 
Kapers said:
I've also noticed how we are barely touching Victorian kids, it would be interesting to see if this is a coincidence, or if we are being extra cautious regarding Vic kids
Click to expand...
A couple of us made note of this earlier in this thread, both this year & last year.
Many disagreed but it is a thing where we are trying to address the issue of putting in hard work into players for a few years only to lose them when they begin to reach their best years. It's more about the ease with which a big Vic club can poach a player from an interstate team back to their home state. It also affects the value of a young player's second & third contract in order to keep them. We are better off to take a Vic player when they are about to reach a good experienced age, say 22 -24 & then throw a good offer at them that they would not get from their existing club. At least we know what we are going to get & it would be less likely that they will want to go back to Victoria. Josh Kennedy was a great example who has become a legend of our club.
Just my thoughts.
 

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Kapers said:
I've also noticed how we are barely touching Victorian kids, it would be interesting to see if this is a coincidence, or if we are being extra cautious regarding Vic kids
Click to expand...

It’s been noticeable for at least 4 years now and a good strategy.

The kids have a better attitude as to wanting to move interstate and while there is no hard and fast rule, interstate clubs don’t seem to target other clubs (outside of Victoria) to pick off players and get them to move back home. A bit of we know the issues so we won’t be so overt with it.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Kapers said:
Yes and noooooo.

Firstly, yes, I think Forwards, at least the best tall forwards, can only be found at the top of the draft. The only real exception has been Ben Brown, and maybe Hawkins. Defenders CAN be found anywhere, and I do think that means you should take the tall forward. But there are two things I want to address.

1. Your love of midfielders. Midfielders are much closer to Key defenders in their distribution than Key forwards. I had Phillips over DGB, but I also had McDonald over Phillips. In the last 10 years only 3 Brownlows were top 10 selections, 2 top 20, 2 top 40, 2 after 50, and 1 in the rookie, which is pretty much throwing darts blind imo.
I think the logic you use in choosing Phillips is similar to the logic that a lot of us wanted DGB, a real once in a blue moon talent despite the position. It has been seen that you can get a basic accumulating midfielder anywhere, much the same you can get a KPD anywhere, or an intercepting anywhere. They still have something as players that warrant a top 5 pick.

2. KPD taken high can turn into KPF, ala Naughton, or can just be amazing players, Moore, Rance, Vlaustin, and Balta.

My heart did get involved on draft night since I loved DGB's interview.

On that note, I think McDonald is a bet that you have to take, and I would have wanted Sydney to take him even if Phillips was available.
You have to take that risk at the top of the draft to find talents that won't be there later.
Click to expand...

Sorry Kapers but you lost me when you used the Brownlow Medal as a metric for measuring midfielders. That award is rubbish as far as I'm concerned now days. It rewards players based on the stat sheet and highlight reels, and ignores the players who actually contribute most in games.

As for Phillips, I don't consider him to be just another accumulating midfielder. I consider him to be a smart midfielder, something which I think many Brownlow Medalists - Fyfe, Dangerfield, Mitchell, Priddis, Swan - are not. They play great individual games rather than games that help their teams succeed, often biting off more than they can chew, and often butchering it, but hey - it looks exciting on TV and they got 150 for my Fantasy team, so they MUST be the best players in the comp!

So Phillips was a very different case. He didn't share their attributes. He played a lot like a mixture of Pendlebury and Prestia.
 
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