2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[Thetrader15]

Starting 22 I have 11 different.
Once these trader teams come out, and pre season is done there's very little separating a lot of sides.

I only had 3 different before I moved Dangerfield on! Hoping I can get a head start with a couple of sneaky rookies who haven't had much airplay

 

[Thetrader15]

I’m not that keen on Cogs due to how injury prone is, and maybe some forward time, also a chance of a tag. He’ll average his 105-110, but will likely miss games

Both Crouch brothers are awesome picks

I’ve toyed with both Macrae and Dunkley but seems to chew up too much coin when you r also got Grundy and Whitfield in your side

I think it depends on what you are doing in the midfield, if you have 3 or 4 premos (+Titch)

 

[Thetrader15]

Jade Gresham is the one looking at those lineups. Hopefully some nice clean 80s or 90s in the Marsh games. Don’t want any more attention on him

Good call. I'm liking him the same. One of the saints posters mentioned him, saying he was getting more midfield time and some consistent numbers last year. Defo on the PS watch, the Saints midfield will have quite a new look, so it'll be interesting to see how they all line up

 

[Benjo_]

Jade Gresham is the one looking at those lineups. Hopefully some nice clean 80s or 90s in the Marsh games. Don’t want any more attention on him

Had him in my first draft. Can see him going low 90s but not sure if that's worth it considering he won't be a top 6 forward at that average. I prefer Dawson at the same price tbh

 

[Cotchy9]

Had him in my first draft. Can see him going low 90s but not sure if that's worth it considering he won't be a top 6 forward at that average. I prefer Dawson at the same price tbh

As it stands, only 4 forwards averaged 90+ last year

 

[Benjo_]

As it stands, only 4 forwards averaged 90+ last year

Yep. But historically with DPP additions and breakouts the F6 chop off is usually a 95 average at worst.

- On another note, four of the top six forwards in Boak, Billings, Marshall and Greene came from <90 averages the year before to finish top six. Worpel, Daniel, Walters, Robinson were also not far behind the top six having averaged <90 the year before as well.
- In 2018, Devon, Hoff, Dunkley and McLean also came from <90 averages to finish in the top six.
- In 2017, Billings and Yeo also came from <90 averages to finish in the top six.

There is definitely a case to start with more of these Dawson/Wingard/Greenwood/Ceglar/Martin types if they all have solid roles and PPM numbers in the Marsh Series.

 

[Thetrader15]

Yep. But historically with DPP additions and breakouts the F6 chop off is usually a 95 average at worst.

- On another note, four of the top six forwards in Boak, Billings, Marshall and Greene came from <90 averages the year before to finish top six. Worpel, Daniel, Walters, Robinson were also not far behind the top six having averaged <90 the year before as well.
- In 2018, Devon, Hoff, Dunkley and McLean also came from <90 averages to finish in the top six.
- In 2017, Billings and Yeo also came from <90 averages to finish in the top six.

There is definitely a case to start with more of these Dawson/Wingard/Greenwood/Ceglar/Martin types if they all have solid roles and PPM numbers in the Marsh Series.

I think you find similar trends for mids too.

That's why I'd rather go with the mids who might move up, rather than looking at Zerrett, TT, Gaff

 

[kraka]

Finally someone mentions brad crouch. Not as much value this year compared to last year and all of a sudden people forget about him. He's a mid that gets plenty of touches, tackles, and doesn't get tagged. Ticks every box, don't know why I'm not picking him

what about his brother ? Matt C joined the leadership group this year. last 3 went 125, 20k cheaper than brouch, same avg and BE

 

[DynamiteDons]

I’ve got Roberton in my defence but really like the shout of Clark too, but unsure whether you could do both in your side or is it too much of a gamble?

 

[kraka]

blakley + doedee
or
(either daniels or dawson) + rookie...

 

[VSTone]

what about his brother ? Matt C joined the leadership group this year. last 3 went 125, 20k cheaper than brouch, same avg and BE

Ball Magnet... Marsh Series will help get read on his role in the Nicks setup... was in my original squad.

 

[TheRednWhite]

what about his brother ? Matt C joined the leadership group this year. last 3 went 125, 20k cheaper than brouch, same avg and BE

Brouch just hits 120+ more often than Mrouch. Even though Mrouch dropped 2 150s to end the season, I still reckon he is mostly going to go 100-110, which is decent enough but you need 120s. Especially if guys like Treloar do it so often

 

[Coasters7]

I think you find similar trends for mids too.

That's why I'd rather go with the mids who might move up, rather than looking at Zerrett, TT, Gaff

Yeah my first go at a team for the preseason and I went a bit ham on the up and coming guys.. it’ll change a thousand times before lockout but I think it’s worth it this year. Not so much mid price madness but more the ~650-700k guys who seem to be everywhere.

Seems just as hard to pick premos that are going to be consistent and back up their price than pick the next TT. All the top end guys have their uncertainties and none you’d really be 100% comfortable paying up for, aside from Grundy of course. Just too much uncertainty around roles and positions while there’s plenty of value slightly lower with guys like Mcluggage, Houston, Steele, who are just as sketchy but for 100-200k less. Plenty of guys to keep an eye on over the next few weekends that’s for sure.

 

[kraka]

keeping a close eye on dom tyson. 450k mid for north. (i know i know), but he should be a walk up start in the mids. priced at 60, should go min 80.
1st 3 games: saints, bris, port. Ziebel has niggles and is 50/50 - either way Tyson is in the mix but will play more dominant role.
Tyson is seasoned with previous best avg 93. He's 26 - new coach etc etc etc

 

[Benjo_]

Also while I'm looking at past numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to see the players who've averaged a first career best 110+ average in the last five years, and then analysed how they faired the following year. These were the findings:

2015: Jack Steven - average 112, 2016 average: 104 (Down 8)
2015: Luke Hodge - average 111, 2016 average: 87 (Down 24)
2015: Jordan Lewis - average 111, 2016 average: 103 (Down 8)
2015: Dan Hannebery - average 111, 2016 average: 109 (Down 2)
2016: Patrick Dangerfield - average 118, 2017 average: 120 (Up 2)
2016: Zach Merrett - average 118, 2017 average: 117 (Down 1)
2016: Adam Treloar - average 111, 2017 average: 108 (Down 3)
2016: Lachie Neale - average 111, 2017 average: 100 (Down 11)
2016: Nick Riewoldt - average 111, 2017 average: 87 (Down 24)
2016: Luke Parker - average 111, 2017 average: 98 (Down 13)
2017: Tom Mitchell - average 127, 2018 average: 129 (Up 2)
2017: Taylor Adams - average 115, 2018 average: 95 (Down 20)
2017: Dayne Zorko - average 114, 2018 average: 97 (Down 17)
2017: Dustin Martin - average 114, 2018 average: 93 (Down 21)
2017: Josh Kelly - average 113, 2018 average: 108 (Down 5)
2017: Mitch Duncan - average 113, 2018 average: 102 (Down 11)
2017: Bryce Gibbs - average 112, 2018 average: 104 (Down 8)
2017: Marc Murphy - average 111, 2018 average: 97 (Down 14)
2018: Jack Macrae - average 123, 2019 average: 116 (Down 7)
2018: Brodie Grundy - average 120, 2019 average: 122 (Up 2)
2018: Max Gawn - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Andrew Gaff - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Patrick Cripps - average 110, 2019 average: 102 (Down 8)

Of the 23 players to reach career high averages (at the time) of above 110, 78% of these players dropped in average the following season. 9% of these players maintained their averages, whilst only 13% increased their averages, with 2/3 of these players being 'fantasy pigs'. I know this is assuming all factor remain constant which obviously isn't the case with possible changes in roles, game plans and fitness. The players that come under the criteria this year are: Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto and Adam Treloar.

 

[JDWCE]

Also while I'm looking at past numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to see the players who've averaged a first career best 110+ average in the last five years, and then analysed how they faired the following year. These were the findings:

2015: Jack Steven - average 112, 2016 average: 104 (Down 8)
2015: Luke Hodge - average 111, 2016 average: 87 (Down 24)
2015: Jordan Lewis - average 111, 2016 average: 103 (Down 8)
2015: Dan Hannebery - average 111, 2016 average: 109 (Down 2)
2016: Patrick Dangerfield - average 118, 2017 average: 120 (Up 2)
2016: Zach Merrett - average 118, 2017 average: 117 (Down 1)
2016: Adam Treloar - average 111, 2017 average: 108 (Down 3)
2016: Lachie Neale - average 111, 2017 average: 100 (Down 11)
2016: Nick Riewoldt - average 111, 2017 average: 87 (Down 24)
2016: Luke Parker - average 111, 2017 average: 98 (Down 13)
2017: Tom Mitchell - average 127, 2018 average: 129 (Up 2)
2017: Taylor Adams - average 115, 2018 average: 95 (Down 20)
2017: Dayne Zorko - average 114, 2018 average: 97 (Down 17)
2017: Dustin Martin - average 114, 2018 average: 93 (Down 21)
2017: Josh Kelly - average 113, 2018 average: 108 (Down 5)
2017: Mitch Duncan - average 113, 2018 average: 102 (Down 11)
2017: Bryce Gibbs - average 112, 2018 average: 104 (Down 8)
2017: Marc Murphy - average 111, 2018 average: 97 (Down 14)
2018: Jack Macrae - average 123, 2019 average: 116 (Down 7)
2018: Brodie Grundy - average 120, 2019 average: 122 (Up 2)
2018: Max Gawn - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Andrew Gaff - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Patrick Cripps - average 110, 2019 average: 102 (Down 8)

Of the 23 players to reach career high averages (at the time) of above 110, 78% of these players dropped in average the following season. 9% of these players maintained their averages, whilst only 13% increased their averages, with 2/3 of these players being 'fantasy pigs'. I know this is assuming all factor remain constant which obviously isn't the case with possible changes in roles, game plans and fitness. The players that come under the criteria this year are: Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto and Adam Treloar.

I like the cut of your jib Benjo_

 

[Cotchy9]

Yep. But historically with DPP additions and breakouts the F6 chop off is usually a 95 average at worst.

- On another note, four of the top six forwards in Boak, Billings, Marshall and Greene came from <90 averages the year before to finish top six. Worpel, Daniel, Walters, Robinson were also not far behind the top six having averaged <90 the year before as well.
- In 2018, Devon, Hoff, Dunkley and McLean also came from <90 averages to finish in the top six.
- In 2017, Billings and Yeo also came from <90 averages to finish in the top six.

There is definitely a case to start with more of these Dawson/Wingard/Greenwood/Ceglar/Martin types if they all have solid roles and PPM numbers in the Marsh Series.

I’m thinking Whitfield and then 2 of those you’ve mentioned at F1-3

 

[Cotchy9]

Also while I'm looking at past numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to see the players who've averaged a first career best 110+ average in the last five years, and then analysed how they faired the following year. These were the findings:

2015: Jack Steven - average 112, 2016 average: 104 (Down 8)
2015: Luke Hodge - average 111, 2016 average: 87 (Down 24)
2015: Jordan Lewis - average 111, 2016 average: 103 (Down 8)
2015: Dan Hannebery - average 111, 2016 average: 109 (Down 2)
2016: Patrick Dangerfield - average 118, 2017 average: 120 (Up 2)
2016: Zach Merrett - average 118, 2017 average: 117 (Down 1)
2016: Adam Treloar - average 111, 2017 average: 108 (Down 3)
2016: Lachie Neale - average 111, 2017 average: 100 (Down 11)
2016: Nick Riewoldt - average 111, 2017 average: 87 (Down 24)
2016: Luke Parker - average 111, 2017 average: 98 (Down 13)
2017: Tom Mitchell - average 127, 2018 average: 129 (Up 2)
2017: Taylor Adams - average 115, 2018 average: 95 (Down 20)
2017: Dayne Zorko - average 114, 2018 average: 97 (Down 17)
2017: Dustin Martin - average 114, 2018 average: 93 (Down 21)
2017: Josh Kelly - average 113, 2018 average: 108 (Down 5)
2017: Mitch Duncan - average 113, 2018 average: 102 (Down 11)
2017: Bryce Gibbs - average 112, 2018 average: 104 (Down 8)
2017: Marc Murphy - average 111, 2018 average: 97 (Down 14)
2018: Jack Macrae - average 123, 2019 average: 116 (Down 7)
2018: Brodie Grundy - average 120, 2019 average: 122 (Up 2)
2018: Max Gawn - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Andrew Gaff - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Patrick Cripps - average 110, 2019 average: 102 (Down 8)

Of the 23 players to reach career high averages (at the time) of above 110, 78% of these players dropped in average the following season. 9% of these players maintained their averages, whilst only 13% increased their averages, with 2/3 of these players being 'fantasy pigs'. I know this is assuming all factor remain constant which obviously isn't the case with possible changes in roles, game plans and fitness. The players that come under the criteria this year are: Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto and Adam Treloar.

This is some ripping analysis and something I’ve thought about. I remember last year when I picked Angus Brayshaw thinking to myself “there’s no way he goes under 110-115 this year” and we all know what happened. Obviously his role played a big part in the downfall but still. Let’s all not forget that Trent Cotchin has a 110 season to his name and hasn’t looked like getting back to those heights before

Those 5 you mentioned at the bottom there all look destined to go 110+ again as all are in their primes and at clubs that will play finals but history says only probably 2 of them will even maintain their average, let alone improve it

 

[Thetrader15]

Also while I'm looking at past numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to see the players who've averaged a first career best 110+ average in the last five years, and then analysed how they faired the following year. These were the findings:

2015: Jack Steven - average 112, 2016 average: 104 (Down 8)
2015: Luke Hodge - average 111, 2016 average: 87 (Down 24)
2015: Jordan Lewis - average 111, 2016 average: 103 (Down 8)
2015: Dan Hannebery - average 111, 2016 average: 109 (Down 2)
2016: Patrick Dangerfield - average 118, 2017 average: 120 (Up 2)
2016: Zach Merrett - average 118, 2017 average: 117 (Down 1)
2016: Adam Treloar - average 111, 2017 average: 108 (Down 3)
2016: Lachie Neale - average 111, 2017 average: 100 (Down 11)
2016: Nick Riewoldt - average 111, 2017 average: 87 (Down 24)
2016: Luke Parker - average 111, 2017 average: 98 (Down 13)
2017: Tom Mitchell - average 127, 2018 average: 129 (Up 2)
2017: Taylor Adams - average 115, 2018 average: 95 (Down 20)
2017: Dayne Zorko - average 114, 2018 average: 97 (Down 17)
2017: Dustin Martin - average 114, 2018 average: 93 (Down 21)
2017: Josh Kelly - average 113, 2018 average: 108 (Down 5)
2017: Mitch Duncan - average 113, 2018 average: 102 (Down 11)
2017: Bryce Gibbs - average 112, 2018 average: 104 (Down 8)
2017: Marc Murphy - average 111, 2018 average: 97 (Down 14)
2018: Jack Macrae - average 123, 2019 average: 116 (Down 7)
2018: Brodie Grundy - average 120, 2019 average: 122 (Up 2)
2018: Max Gawn - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Andrew Gaff - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Patrick Cripps - average 110, 2019 average: 102 (Down 8)

Of the 23 players to reach career high averages (at the time) of above 110, 78% of these players dropped in average the following season. 9% of these players maintained their averages, whilst only 13% increased their averages, with 2/3 of these players being 'fantasy pigs'. I know this is assuming all factor remain constant which obviously isn't the case with possible changes in roles, game plans and fitness. The players that come under the criteria this year are: Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto and Adam Treloar.

Great work.

Can you next do the analysis for the following year - just so I can see what Cripps will do this year please!

I'm confident Treloar will go 110, which is his average over the last 4 years.

 

[Benjo_]

This is some ripping analysis and something I’ve thought about. I remember last year when I picked Angus Brayshaw thinking to myself “there’s no way he goes under 110-115 this year” and we all know what happened. Obviously his role played a big part in the downfall but still. Let’s all not forget that Trent Cotchin has a 110 season to his name and hasn’t looked like getting back to those heights before

Those 5 you mentioned at the bottom there all look destined to go 110+ again as all are in their primes and at clubs that will play finals but history says only probably 2 of them will even maintain their average, let alone improve it

Yep I'm trying to limit these types of players in my team atm. I'm set on fading Whitfield and choosing Dunkley as my alternative (think I need one of these guys). I think Treloar and Kelly will stay around their averages from last year but the other three are more unknowns and have less data. As you said the other day I'm happy to take on these guys by getting Lyons/Adams and using the extra funds to get another premo on field or rookie off it.

 

[Benjo_]

Also while I'm looking at past numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to see the players who've averaged a first career best 110+ average in the last five years, and then analysed how they faired the following year. These were the findings:

2015: Jack Steven - average 112, 2016 average: 104 (Down 8)
2015: Luke Hodge - average 111, 2016 average: 87 (Down 24)
2015: Jordan Lewis - average 111, 2016 average: 103 (Down 8)
2015: Dan Hannebery - average 111, 2016 average: 109 (Down 2)
2016: Patrick Dangerfield - average 118, 2017 average: 120 (Up 2)
2016: Zach Merrett - average 118, 2017 average: 117 (Down 1)
2016: Adam Treloar - average 111, 2017 average: 108 (Down 3)
2016: Lachie Neale - average 111, 2017 average: 100 (Down 11)
2016: Nick Riewoldt - average 111, 2017 average: 87 (Down 24)
2016: Luke Parker - average 111, 2017 average: 98 (Down 13)
2017: Tom Mitchell - average 127, 2018 average: 129 (Up 2)
2017: Taylor Adams - average 115, 2018 average: 95 (Down 20)
2017: Dayne Zorko - average 114, 2018 average: 97 (Down 17)
2017: Dustin Martin - average 114, 2018 average: 93 (Down 21)
2017: Josh Kelly - average 113, 2018 average: 108 (Down 5)
2017: Mitch Duncan - average 113, 2018 average: 102 (Down 11)
2017: Bryce Gibbs - average 112, 2018 average: 104 (Down 8)
2017: Marc Murphy - average 111, 2018 average: 97 (Down 14)
2018: Jack Macrae - average 123, 2019 average: 116 (Down 7)
2018: Brodie Grundy - average 120, 2019 average: 122 (Up 2)
2018: Max Gawn - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Andrew Gaff - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Patrick Cripps - average 110, 2019 average: 102 (Down 8)

Of the 23 players to reach career high averages (at the time) of above 110, 78% of these players dropped in average the following season. 9% of these players maintained their averages, whilst only 13% increased their averages, with 2/3 of these players being 'fantasy pigs'. I know this is assuming all factor remain constant which obviously isn't the case with possible changes in roles, game plans and fitness. The players that come under the criteria this year are: Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto and Adam Treloar.

By the way please don't share this to twitter etc because I don't particularly want the traders sharing this to every man and their dog

 

[PAFC27]

The new guy just going bang again great post mate Benjo_

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Also while I'm looking at past numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to see the players who've averaged a first career best 110+ average in the last five years, and then analysed how they faired the following year. These were the findings:

2015: Jack Steven - average 112, 2016 average: 104 (Down 8)
2015: Luke Hodge - average 111, 2016 average: 87 (Down 24)
2015: Jordan Lewis - average 111, 2016 average: 103 (Down 8)
2015: Dan Hannebery - average 111, 2016 average: 109 (Down 2)
2016: Patrick Dangerfield - average 118, 2017 average: 120 (Up 2)
2016: Zach Merrett - average 118, 2017 average: 117 (Down 1)
2016: Adam Treloar - average 111, 2017 average: 108 (Down 3)
2016: Lachie Neale - average 111, 2017 average: 100 (Down 11)
2016: Nick Riewoldt - average 111, 2017 average: 87 (Down 24)
2016: Luke Parker - average 111, 2017 average: 98 (Down 13)
2017: Tom Mitchell - average 127, 2018 average: 129 (Up 2)
2017: Taylor Adams - average 115, 2018 average: 95 (Down 20)
2017: Dayne Zorko - average 114, 2018 average: 97 (Down 17)
2017: Dustin Martin - average 114, 2018 average: 93 (Down 21)
2017: Josh Kelly - average 113, 2018 average: 108 (Down 5)
2017: Mitch Duncan - average 113, 2018 average: 102 (Down 11)
2017: Bryce Gibbs - average 112, 2018 average: 104 (Down 8)
2017: Marc Murphy - average 111, 2018 average: 97 (Down 14)
2018: Jack Macrae - average 123, 2019 average: 116 (Down 7)
2018: Brodie Grundy - average 120, 2019 average: 122 (Up 2)
2018: Max Gawn - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Andrew Gaff - average 111, 2019 average: 111 (Neutral)
2018: Patrick Cripps - average 110, 2019 average: 102 (Down 8)

Of the 23 players to reach career high averages (at the time) of above 110, 78% of these players dropped in average the following season. 9% of these players maintained their averages, whilst only 13% increased their averages, with 2/3 of these players being 'fantasy pigs'. I know this is assuming all factor remain constant which obviously isn't the case with possible changes in roles, game plans and fitness. The players that come under the criteria this year are: Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto and Adam Treloar.

A tip of the hat to you benjo. I love me some spreadsheet action.

But I must ask myself:

"Would you have been happy having them the entire year following that 110+ breakout".

From your numbers I'm counting 14 or 15 yes' from that list of 23 above. So a 60-65% tick of approval. Not bad really.

But on the flip side it means 2 of the 5 you listed (Josh Kelly, Dunkley, Whitfied, Taranto, Treloar) are going to have a disappointing return in 2020 (for their current price anyway).

At the minute I've got none of them, but I'd really like to have Dunkley in!

 

[Shadow89]

As it stands, only 4 forwards averaged 90+ last year

To be fair though, Danger and Boak were both forwards, and they averaged 105+. Dev Smith averaged 108 the year before, T. Kelly, Worpel, Billings all averaged 95+ and Robinson went at 93. They were all available (barring Smith) as forwards throughout the year. Gresham would need to average at least 97 to get that F6 spot (based on last year).

Whit, Danger, Boak, Billings, Dusty and T. Kelly (with Worp 0.2 behind Kelly) were the top 6 with 114 for Whit at the top end, to 96.9 for Kelly/96.7 for Worpel at the bottom end. Not sure I can see Gresham pushing that given the amount of available mids they now have/the way he plays.

Will be an interesting watch, but would be very surprised if he's averaging 97 and also a Top 6 FWD by the end of the year, given that Danger could be a forward again and Steven will be Top 6 once he's injected into the mids. Then you've got Whit, Dusty, Dev and someone like Zorko who might get forward status with his stated change of role, possibly taking that spot. Then add Ebert, Wingard, Walters, Heeney, Lipinski, Greene, Ceglar, Brayshaw and Greenwood all possibly in contention too. Not to mention the random one or two mids who play a few games in a different role and then get forward eligibility. Who knows, could be eating my words by the end of tonight though, haha

 

[Gunf]

Ratugolea anyone? if he gets solid ruck time... 372k fwd

Thought about him but not sure if it is my 'Geelong hat' , my 'hes my boy hat' , or my 'fnatasy hat' with him so staying away for now lol