Opinion Is this where Carlton drops away? 2023 version

Are Carlton going to drop away from here?


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Agree, reckon Cerra is close to our most important player out atm. His grunt work inside and toughness over the ball was immense all year before going down

Agree. You can see we just lack that little bit of class and finish at the moment.

Cerra Walsh McGovern McKay make us a lot better
 
Could have been worse for him but normally Charlie gets the 2nd best defender purely due to Harry's height. May may have held Curnow either way but I'd back in Harry on Lever to get his fair share.

Anyway can agree to disagree, I know near on every Carlton fan around would prefer Mckay in for one of TDK or Pittonet. TDK playing some good football lately so Pittonet would be my pick
Pittonet gives you nothing if he isn't winning the tap. Reeves for us is the same around the ground but he wins a fair share of hitouts which is helping our midfield. Your better off going with TDK for the finals with a chop out from a 2nd tall like Silvagni if he gets back in time.
 

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Pittonet gives you nothing if he isn't winning the tap. Reeves for us is the same around the ground but he wins a fair share of hitouts which is helping our midfield. Your better off going with TDK for the finals with a chop out from a 2nd tall like Silvagni if he gets back in time.
Yep. TDK earlier in the year just wasnt competing so the need for both was there but a straight swap of Pittonet - Mckay is a huge improvement for me. Mckay was doing great work up the ground when his yips had struck. Would prefer him taking 3 contested marks a game and missing half his shots on goal than Pittonet dropping marks and doing nothing but winning hitouts
 
Yep. TDK earlier in the year just wasnt competing so the need for both was there but a straight swap of Pittonet - Mckay is a huge improvement for me. Mckay was doing great work up the ground when his yips had struck. Would prefer him taking 3 contested marks a game and missing half his shots on goal than Pittonet dropping marks and doing nothing but winning hitouts

At some point we should try McKay out of the goalsquare and Curnow up the ground.

Charlie plenty athletic to get 25+ touches, very few could go with him, field kicking is sublime, and would burn defeners running back towards goal.

Gets Harry more shots closer to goal. Likely wins another coleman. Etc etc.
 
Superb win once again, and the real thing stood out yesterady was the desperation shown by the Carlton Players.

Would have been a travesty had Trac's goal being given and Carlton lost. Only problem was Carlton couldn't convert the inside 50 dominance to scores , but that is to be expected aginst the dominant Melbourne Defence.

Play like this in the finals and Carlton should have a good chance,even from 5-8.
 
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Superb win once again, and the real thing stood out yesterady was the desperation shown by the Carlton Players.

Would have been a travesty had Trac's goal being given and Carlton lost. Only problem was Carlton couldn't convert the inside 50 dominance to scores , but that is to be expected aginst the dominant Melbourne Defence.

Play like this in the finals and Carlton should have a good chance,even from 5-8.
All I'll say is thank you for Noodles and George :hearteyes:
 
Every match would have to go against us in terms of teams needing wins winning and by a good margin.
The current prediction is that there's a 90% chance Carlton makes finals from here but what would that 10% actually look like if they didn't? Let's just say for the sake of this discussion that Carlton lose both of their remaining games by an average margin of 20 points. That would keep them on 12.5 wins with a percentage around 112%. So in that scenario you've got St Kilda needing to win just one of their last two against Geelong & Brisbane to finish ahead of Carlton, Sydney likely only needing one more win against Adelaide or Melbourne to finish ahead Carlton (although percentage could play in Carlton's favour) and GWS only needing to beat Essendon in Sydney on Saturday to finish ahead of the Blues because this scenario assumes the Giants beat the Blues in round 24.

That pushes Carlton to 8th and from there you've got the Dogs and Cats who can still finish ahead of Carlton but both need to win their two remaining games to make it happen. I'm sure the Dogs will beat West Coast at Marvel on Sunday so you'd expect them to be there going into the final round but Geelong face the Saints on Saturday night and that will be tough. Then the Dogs and Cats happen to face each other in the final round of the season so one of them will be getting a win in that game and will jump Carlton on the ladder in this scenario. So if they both win this weekend then one of them is guaranteed to finish ahead of the Blues just purely because they play each other in round 24.

I'm pretty sure Carlton make it from here (hence the 90% prediction) but you can see that a loss this weekend probably puts them in a vulnerable position. For those wondering, the results that NEED to happen this weekend for Carlton to be in that position are GWS beating Essendon and either the Dogs beating West Coast or Geelong beating St Kilda. Two of those three results happening this weekend seem pretty likely to me so if I was a Carlton supporter I'd be crossing every finger and toe that they get the job done against Gold Coast on Saturday arvo just so the whole supporter base can avoid what would be a very nervous week in the lead up to their last game against the Giants.

1 more win seals it though.
Correct. Beat the Suns on Saturday arvo and it's 100% confirmed. Lose and you're probably in for a very nervous week leading up to round 24.
 
The current prediction is that there's a 90% chance Carlton makes finals from here but what would that 10% actually look like if they didn't? Let's just say for the sake of this discussion that Carlton lose both of their remaining games by an average margin of 20 points. That would keep them on 12.5 wins with a percentage around 112%. So in that scenario you've got St Kilda needing to win just one of their last two against Geelong & Brisbane to finish ahead of Carlton, Sydney likely only needing one more win against Adelaide or Melbourne to finish ahead Carlton (although percentage could play in Carlton's favour) and GWS only needing to beat Essendon in Sydney on Saturday to finish ahead of the Blues because this scenario assumes the Giants beat the Blues in round 24.

That pushes Carlton to 8th and from there you've got the Dogs and Cats who can still finish ahead of Carlton but both need to win their two remaining games to make it happen. I'm sure the Dogs will beat West Coast at Marvel on Sunday so you'd expect them to be there going into the final round but Geelong face the Saints on Saturday night and that will be tough. Then the Dogs and Cats happen to face each other in the final round of the season so one of them will be getting a win in that game and will jump Carlton on the ladder in this scenario. So if they both win this weekend then one of them is guaranteed to finish ahead of the Blues just purely because they play each other in round 24.

I'm pretty sure Carlton make it from here (hence the 90% prediction) but you can see that a loss this weekend probably puts them in a vulnerable position. For those wondering, the results that NEED to happen this weekend for Carlton to be in that position are GWS beating Essendon and either the Dogs beating West Coast or Geelong beating St Kilda. Two of those three results happening this weekend seem pretty likely to me so if I was a Carlton supporter I'd be crossing every finger and toe that they get the job done against Gold Coast on Saturday arvo just so the whole supporter base can avoid what would be a very nervous week in the lead up to their last game against the Giants.


Correct. Beat the Suns on Saturday arvo and it's 100% confirmed. Lose and you're probably in for a very nervous week leading up to round 24.

We know what you’ll be barracking for.
 

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Doesn’t explain the other 25 doomsday scenario posts though does it
It was actually Gerard Whateley's doomsday scenario on AFL 360 last night that inspired the post. He said Carlton losing to the Suns would push it into next week and the wait would continue. I thought Carlton had already qualified for the finals but after seeing that AFL 360 segment and looking into it you can see it's not confirmed yet for the Blues. Hence the post.
 
It was actually Gerard Whateley's doomsday scenario on AFL 360 last night that inspired the post. He said Carlton losing to the Suns would push it into next week and the wait would continue. I thought Carlton had already qualified for the finals but after seeing that AFL 360 segment and looking into it you can see it's not confirmed yet for the Blues. Hence the post.

We could lose both and still get in. Won't happen

We will win this week and that will allow us to rest and/or try some things next week which is vital.
 
We could lose both and still get in. Won't happen.
Pretty sure I read some Carlton supporters write almost exactly what you just wrote this time last year when the Blues were two wins ahead of the Bulldogs going into round 22 and we know how that ended. Maybe this is just me but I wouldn't feel comfortable until it was 100% confirmed.

We will win this week and that will allow us to rest and/or try some things next week which is vital.
Win and you're in. It's pretty simple.
 
Pretty sure I read some Carlton supporters write almost exactly what you just wrote this time last year when the Blues were two wins ahead of the Bulldogs going into round 22 and we know how that ended. Maybe this is just me but I wouldn't feel comfortable until it was 100% confirmed.
Not sure who that would have been, from memory it was pretty obvious we were cooked as soon as we lost to Adelaide in round 20.
 
My lids not coming off until we are locked in to play finals and ideally in 5th position so we've got a home game

I have NO doubt. The attitude and game style is irresistable. The stats back it up. I have always believe we had the list.

We will win next two and will be a real threat in September
 
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Pretty sure I read some Carlton supporters write almost exactly what you just wrote this time last year when the Blues were two wins ahead of the Bulldogs going into round 22 and we know how that ended. Maybe this is just me but I wouldn't feel comfortable until it was 100% confirmed.

Not how I remember it. I thought we were in trouble weeks out
 
The current prediction is that there's a 90% chance Carlton makes finals from here but what would that 10% actually look like if they didn't? Let's just say for the sake of this discussion that Carlton lose both of their remaining games by an average margin of 20 points. That would keep them on 12.5 wins with a percentage around 112%. So in that scenario you've got St Kilda needing to win just one of their last two against Geelong & Brisbane to finish ahead of Carlton, Sydney likely only needing one more win against Adelaide or Melbourne to finish ahead Carlton (although percentage could play in Carlton's favour) and GWS only needing to beat Essendon in Sydney on Saturday to finish ahead of the Blues because this scenario assumes the Giants beat the Blues in round 24.

That pushes Carlton to 8th and from there you've got the Dogs and Cats who can still finish ahead of Carlton but both need to win their two remaining games to make it happen. I'm sure the Dogs will beat West Coast at Marvel on Sunday so you'd expect them to be there going into the final round but Geelong face the Saints on Saturday night and that will be tough. Then the Dogs and Cats happen to face each other in the final round of the season so one of them will be getting a win in that game and will jump Carlton on the ladder in this scenario. So if they both win this weekend then one of them is guaranteed to finish ahead of the Blues just purely because they play each other in round 24.

I'm pretty sure Carlton make it from here (hence the 90% prediction) but you can see that a loss this weekend probably puts them in a vulnerable position. For those wondering, the results that NEED to happen this weekend for Carlton to be in that position are GWS beating Essendon and either the Dogs beating West Coast or Geelong beating St Kilda. Two of those three results happening this weekend seem pretty likely to me so if I was a Carlton supporter I'd be crossing every finger and toe that they get the job done against Gold Coast on Saturday arvo just so the whole supporter base can avoid what would be a very nervous week in the lead up to their last game against the Giants.


Correct. Beat the Suns on Saturday arvo and it's 100% confirmed. Lose and you're probably in for a very nervous week leading up to round 24.
We should beat them comfortably - it was the Suns who played us into this rich vein of form.

Good memories!
 
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