Opinion Is this where Carlton drops away?

Are Carlton going to drop away from here?

  • Yes

  • No

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Fadge said:
Rebuild? The concept of a rebuild is a fallacy.

Great clubs with strong cultures don't rebuild. Paul Roos said it best - 'You put together your best possible list each year, and put your best team on the park each week'. Melbourne only came good after he took over the reigns with this philosophy. Geelong, Sydney and West Coast also great examples of this approach - how often and for how long do we see these teams at the tail end of the ladder for multiple years in succession 'rebuilding'?

That is why we see clubs like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood and West Coast contend more often than they don't.
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Collingwood never win any flags anyway so your argument is spurious
 
Fadge said:
Why would I be seething?

I'd like nothing more to come up in a big final against Carlton - it's been two decades since you guys have put yourselves in the frame to do so.
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I will maintain until my dying day that if Andrew Walker had received that free kick in the goal square in the last minute of the 2011 qualifying final we would have beaten Geelong comfortably in the prelim final - we matched up very well with them that year.

That would have set up a Carlton vs Collingwood grand final that we would have been absolutely smashed in (we matched up very poorly with 2011 Collingwood) but it would have been a bloody ripper of an occasion.

Would have totally changed the last decade for Carlton too. Ratten gets kudos for taking a team to at least a prelim and doesn't get sacked when we get devastated by injuries in 2012. Malthouse never happens... changes the fortunes of Carlton and a bunch of other teams (who benefited from the players Matlhouse pushed out)

Footy's a game of inches, but also a game of miles too - Carlton in 2011 should have locked up a top 4 spot and played West Coast at home. Simply not good enough in key matches before then, despite having oodles of talent.

This year's Carlton team reminds me a LOT of 2011, to be honest. That year we were 10-3-1 after 14 matches (compared to 10-4 now), had a draw that saw us play a tougher end to the season and then couldn't quite get up to beat the teams in the top 6 when it mattered. Very similar age profile to the team (probably peaking or as close as it was going to come, but not really seeing things that way). Similar psychological profile with injuries in 2011-12 too (2012 we were gutted by injuries to key defenders... but ultimately, good teams manage to win despite injuries, or at least stay in contention).

Big question for Carlton is whether we can do better in this iteration. I have zero confidence after 20 years of scarring, but I've also been pleasantly surprised by how Vossy has them playing - we've shown a bit more toughness than I expected, to be honest (yesterday as a prime example).
 

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btdg said:
I will maintain until my dying day that if Andrew Walker had received that free kick in the goal square in the last minute of the 2011 qualifying final we would have beaten Geelong comfortably in the prelim final - we matched up very well with them that year.

That would have set up a Carlton vs Collingwood grand final that we would have been absolutely smashed in (we matched up very poorly with 2011 Collingwood) but it would have been a bloody ripper of an occasion.

Would have totally changed the last decade for Carlton too. Ratten gets kudos for taking a team to at least a prelim and doesn't get sacked when we get devastated by injuries in 2012. Malthouse never happens... changes the fortunes of Carlton and a bunch of other teams (who benefited from the players Matlhouse pushed out)

Footy's a game of inches, but also a game of miles too - Carlton in 2011 should have locked up a top 4 spot and played West Coast at home. Simply not good enough in key matches before then, despite having oodles of talent.

This year's Carlton team reminds me a LOT of 2011, to be honest. That year we were 10-3-1 after 14 matches (compared to 10-4 now), had a draw that saw us play a tougher end to the season and then couldn't quite get up to beat the teams in the top 6 when it mattered. Very similar age profile to the team (probably peaking or as close as it was going to come, but not really seeing things that way). Similar psychological profile with injuries in 2011-12 too (2012 we were gutted by injuries to key defenders... but ultimately, good teams manage to win despite injuries, or at least stay in contention).

Big question for Carlton is whether we can do better in this iteration. I have zero confidence after 20 years of scarring, but I've also been pleasantly surprised by how Vossy has them playing - we've shown a bit more toughness than I expected, to be honest (yesterday as a prime example).
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Great post :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
 
Fadge said:
Rebuild? The concept of a rebuild is a fallacy.

Great clubs with strong cultures don't rebuild. Paul Roos said it best - 'You put together your best possible list each year, and put your best team on the park each week'. Melbourne only came good after he took over the reigns with this philosophy. Geelong, Sydney and West Coast also great examples of this approach - how often and for how long do we see these teams at the tail end of the ladder for multiple years in succession 'rebuilding'?

That is why we see clubs like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood and West Coast contend more often than they don't.
Click to expand...
Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney and West Coast have won a combined 1 flag between them the past decade.

Sydney had to rebuild for 3-4 years after challenging for flags. Now they are on the other side again.

West Coast are inevitably going to rebuild after winning a flag in 2018 and topping up with some big contracts.

Big difference between making finals and being a proper contender. All these teams have done is mostly remain in the 8 - that’s not a major distinction if you’re not regularly jagging flags.
 
Foucault1989 said:
We've won a few finals in the past 20 years. They were probably bigger?

Also beat Port to make finals....that was also pretty important.

I don't get your point
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I'm actually a bit with Fadge on that one.

We've won 2 finals in the past 20 years - Essendon in 2011; but we were streets ahead of them and it wasn't a big win - it set up a bigger match the following week that we lost. We came up short in all the 'big' games that year

In 2013 we beat Richmond from 9th... that was good fun, but ultimately pretty meaningless against a Richmond team that was similarly flawed, and we were never going anywhere.

Beating Freo on the weekend was pretty huge imo... puts us back in a very tight race for contention (if we get over St Kilda next week things really open up for us to have a crack).

However, I'd argue that beating Richmond in round 1 this year was our biggest win in 20 years. After what, 10 straight years of starting 0-2, to get a good start under a fresh coach was huge. To do it from 3 goals down in the last quarter, against the best team of the last 5 years (who are showing now that they are going to be top 4 again this year). I just thought that was massive.

I'll also throw in a hugely under-rated win, which was our 2019 victory over Adelaide in round 19. It might sound silly, but that game meant we weren't going to get the wooden spoon (again) when things were sliding pretty badly, and symbolically it just changed things a bit for me to us being a club that cared more about pride than draft picks. A pandemic and then the Teague Train derailing took us off course, but at least we CARED again.
 
Fadge said:
Rebuild? The concept of a rebuild is a fallacy.

Great clubs with strong cultures don't rebuild. Paul Roos said it best - 'You put together your best possible list each year, and put your best team on the park each week'. Melbourne only came good after he took over the reigns with this philosophy. Geelong, Sydney and West Coast also great examples of this approach - how often and for how long do we see these teams at the tail end of the ladder for multiple years in succession 'rebuilding'?

That is why we see clubs like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood and West Coast contend more often than they don't.
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What bullshit. You're hanging your hat on one mans theory who learned his trade at Sydney where there's a clear intention to avoid bottoming out for off-field reasons. COLA and the academy helps too. He coached them to 1 flag.

He went on to coach Melbourne in 2014, 2015 & 2016 where they finished 17th, 13th and 11th, which allowed them to draft Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver. They wouldn't have picked those guys up if they didn't bottom out and go for a rebuild.

Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney and West Coast who like to avoid rebuilding have won 3 flags between them the past 10 years (Collingwood has contributed to 0 of them, so don't know why you'd even mention them).

Hawthorn, Richmond and Melbourne have won the other 7; yet you're trying to convince yourself that you guys have got it right.

Whatever helps you sleep at night I guess. McStay will launch you into contention to compete with the big boys I'm sure :drunk:
 
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btdg said:
I'm actually a bit with Fadge on that one.

We've won 2 finals in the past 20 years - Essendon in 2011; but we were streets ahead of them and it wasn't a big win - it set up a bigger match the following week that we lost. We came up short in all the 'big' games that year

In 2013 we beat Richmond from 9th... that was good fun, but ultimately pretty meaningless against a Richmond team that was similarly flawed, and we were never going anywhere.

Beating Freo on the weekend was pretty huge imo... puts us back in a very tight race for contention (if we get over St Kilda next week things really open up for us to have a crack).

However, I'd argue that beating Richmond in round 1 this year was our biggest win in 20 years. After what, 10 straight years of starting 0-2, to get a good start under a fresh coach was huge. To do it from 3 goals down in the last quarter, against the best team of the last 5 years (who are showing now that they are going to be top 4 again this year). I just thought that was massive.

I'll also throw in a hugely under-rated win, which was our 2019 victory over Adelaide in round 19. It might sound silly, but that game meant we weren't going to get the wooden spoon (again) when things were sliding pretty badly, and symbolically it just changed things a bit for me to us being a club that cared more about pride than draft picks. A pandemic and then the Teague Train derailing took us off course, but at least we CARED again.
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you can't say whether it's our best win in 20 years until we can see the aftermath. 2011 Elimination final vs. Essendon was huge because we were electric and looked like we could contend. We got rolled the next week so it didn't matter.

2013 final round vs. Port to come from behind in the last and make finals was also massive, as was the final the next week - but alas meant nothing because we lost the following week achieving nothing.

We could lose every game from here and the Freo game would mean * all. If we make the 4 by 1 game, then it's indeed our best win ever.

La Dispute said:
Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney and West Coast have won a combined 1 flag between them the past decade.

Sydney had to rebuild for 3-4 years after challenging for flags. Now they are on the other side again.

West Coast are inevitably going to rebuild after winning a flag in 2018 and topping up with some big contracts.

Big difference between making finals and being a proper contender. All these teams have done is mostly remain in the 8 - that’s not a major distinction if you’re not regularly jagging flags.
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Fudge thinks that making finals and losing GF's is the aim of the game, while clubs that choose to bottom out and rebuild via the draft have got it all wrong. It's a bizarre way to think, considering the systems in place re: equalization. As well as you know, the flag being won every year by clubs that have undergone a rebuild.
 
You can generally trace the accumulation of talent.

Geelong picked up a lot of players via the draft 1997-2001. They then got Hawkins as a later pick and Selwood as a draft slider in 2006.

West Coast dropped back a bit 2008-2010 and added Nataniu, Shuey, Sheppard, Gaff and Darling. Masten came as their pick from the Judd trade in 2007.

Collingwood’s started with Pendlebury and Thomas in 2005, Reid and Brown in 2006, Sidebottom and Beams in 2008.

Sydney seem to be the only obvious exception, but they have now undergone a rebuild and are stacked to the gills with talent.

The word ‘rebuild’ is pretty loaded and seems to generally designate a few years of poor finishes and accumulating high draft picks, but that has generally been the template for success over the past couple of decades.
 
Fadge said:
Nah, yesterday's win was better.

2013, whilst nice to win a final against an arch rival, Carlton were never contending that year.

To win a big match against a Top 4 side, jumping into the top 4 yourself in the process and setting yourselves up to possibly contend for a flag for the first time in two decades, yesterday's win trumps it.
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So now you think Carlton are capable of contending?

I thought you had us peaking in the lower half of the 8? Peak!

Slowly shifting Fudgey.
 
Fadge said:
Yep. Pies a game behind Carlton in a year where we were meant to be bottom 2.

And we've already played Brisbane, Melbourne and Geelong.

Fantastic, isn't it?
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You’re one key forward away from the premie4ship. Go and spend big on one. Seriously you’ll be back up before we all know it.
 

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btdg said:
I will maintain until my dying day that if Andrew Walker had received that free kick in the goal square in the last minute of the 2011 qualifying final we would have beaten Geelong comfortably in the prelim final - we matched up very well with them that year.

That would have set up a Carlton vs Collingwood grand final that we would have been absolutely smashed in (we matched up very poorly with 2011 Collingwood) but it would have been a bloody ripper of an occasion.

Would have totally changed the last decade for Carlton too. Ratten gets kudos for taking a team to at least a prelim and doesn't get sacked when we get devastated by injuries in 2012. Malthouse never happens... changes the fortunes of Carlton and a bunch of other teams (who benefited from the players Matlhouse pushed out)

Footy's a game of inches, but also a game of miles too - Carlton in 2011 should have locked up a top 4 spot and played West Coast at home. Simply not good enough in key matches before then, despite having oodles of talent.

This year's Carlton team reminds me a LOT of 2011, to be honest. That year we were 10-3-1 after 14 matches (compared to 10-4 now), had a draw that saw us play a tougher end to the season and then couldn't quite get up to beat the teams in the top 6 when it mattered. Very similar age profile to the team (probably peaking or as close as it was going to come, but not really seeing things that way). Similar psychological profile with injuries in 2011-12 too (2012 we were gutted by injuries to key defenders... but ultimately, good teams manage to win despite injuries, or at least stay in contention).

Big question for Carlton is whether we can do better in this iteration. I have zero confidence after 20 years of scarring, but I've also been pleasantly surprised by how Vossy has them playing - we've shown a bit more toughness than I expected, to be honest (yesterday as a prime example).
Click to expand...

We didn’t have the key forwards or a Weitering in 2011. We also recruited terribly to add to the list at that time, hopefully that isn’t repeated.

I think we have more depth now than then as well.
 
Dominant and clinical win by the Blues.

Finishing top 4(could be top 2 even) dependent on results against Demons, Cats and Lions, worst case scenario they finish 5th.
 
Fadge said:
Rebuild? The concept of a rebuild is a fallacy.

Great clubs with strong cultures don't rebuild. Paul Roos said it best - 'You put together your best possible list each year, and put your best team on the park each week'. Melbourne only came good after he took over the reigns with this philosophy. Geelong, Sydney and West Coast also great examples of this approach - how often and for how long do we see these teams at the tail end of the ladder for multiple years in succession 'rebuilding'?

That is why we see clubs like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood and West Coast contend more often than they don't.
Click to expand...

So which one is it, you guys are rebuilding or playing senior/experience to play finals (you should be playing finals with that list)?
 
La Dispute said:
Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney and West Coast have won a combined 1 flag between them the past decade.

Big difference between making finals and being a proper contender. All these teams have done is mostly remain in the 8 - that’s not a major distinction if you’re not regularly jagging flags.
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Yes, I know the difference between making finals and contending.

I know you conveniently said 'the last decade', which happened to be the year immediately following years when the four teams mentioned had won seven of the previous eight premierships, but the years in which these four teams have contended since were:

Geelong - 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 (made finals in 2018)
Collingwood - 2012, 2018, 2019 (made finals in 2013, 2020)
Sydney - 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 (made finals in 2017, 2018, 2021)
West Coast - 2015, 2018 (made finals in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020)

The occasional year where they might have dipped to the lower rungs of the ladder, but we've been reliably informed that rebuilds take six years, so no rebuilds amongst these teams...
 
Fadge said:
'You put together your best possible list each year, and put your best team on the park each week'

This is what Collingwood do, and what other strong clubs do.
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But, but I thought you and other Pies supporters suggested that you were in rebuild mode, while still playing your senior players. Can't have it both ways

Your squad (playing senior players) should be playing finals this year, simple as that
 
Arr0w said:
But, but I thought you and other Pies supporters suggested that you were in rebuild mode, while still playing your senior players. Can't have it both ways

Your squad (playing senior players) should be playing finals this year, simple as that
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I've never said Collingwood are in rebuild mode - it's not something I believe my club does (nor something that other strong clubs do).

I can't speak for other Pies supporters.

As for Pies playing Finals this year, last time I checked we were 7th on the ladder, two games from top spot, having already played the other top 10 teams.
 
Fadge said:
I've never said Collingwood are in rebuild mode - it's not something I believe my club does (nor something that other strong clubs do).

I can't speak for other Pies supporters.

As for Pies playing Finals this year, last time I checked we were 7th on the ladder, two games from top spot.
Click to expand...

As I said, your club should be playing finals with who is on the park. But will be interesting how you transition your senior players over the next 1-3 years
 
Fadge said:
I've never said Collingwood are in rebuild mode - it's not something I believe my club does (nor something that other strong clubs do).

I can't speak for other Pies supporters.

As for Pies playing Finals this year, last time I checked we were 7th on the ladder, two games from top spot, having already played the other top 10 teams.
Click to expand...

Lol fudgey....

Fadge said:
Year 6 of your rebuild v. Year 2 of ours.

I'm not so sure...
Click to expand...
 
I almost feel bad for old Fudgo.

Spends years getting his jollies trolling a s**t team like a true blue psychopath. The team finally improves, clocks in 9 wins halfway through the season a couple of months after predicting they'd notch up 7 in total.

Keeps moving the goal posts, adjusting the metrics and in many cases just blatantly making things up. Spends countless hours backpedaling and side-stepping a whole cluster* of bad posts which really were a template worst case scenario and incredibly unlikely to unfold.

Most reasonable posters just give up the ghost and move on - I'm amazed the crusade is still going.
 
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