Our First Pick - The Deficit

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Bender571

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I’m definitely no expert on the topic but I’m pretty sure the points you mentioned would have no effect. The 59.2pts is the difference in Henry being big on at 10 instead of 9.
We used picks 52 & 55 to match the Henry bid. GWS used 41, 56, 59, 67 & 71. Our picks wouldn’t have changed spots as 41 would have been eliminated but 9 gets added into the draft so our picks that we matched with would have stayed the same. All the other picks are behind our picks so have no effect on our draft position.


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We must have used more than that to pay for Henry. Pick 9 is worth 1469 points minus the 20% discount mean Henry cost 1175.20. Picks 52 & 55 are worth 246 & 207. 1175 - 246 - 207 - 265 (current deficit) = 457 points missing somewhere. I believe we also used picks 49 (287 points from the adelaide pick trade) & pick 58 (170 points from the Hill trade) 287+170 = the missing 457 points. So we used picks 49, 52, 55, and 58. Like you said picks 49, 52, and 55 wouldn't have changed, but with GWS using up pick 56 as well our pick 58 would be come pick 57, 12 points better. This means if we bid on Green the deficit would have been 194.
 

Patty_Moz

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We must have used more than that to pay for Henry. Pick 9 is worth 1469 points minus the 20% discount mean Henry cost 1175.20. Picks 52 & 55 are worth 246 & 207. 1175 - 246 - 207 - 265 (current deficit) = 457 points missing somewhere. I believe we also used picks 49 (287 points from the adelaide pick trade) & pick 58 (170 points from the Hill trade) 287+170 = the missing 457 points. So we used picks 49, 52, 55, and 58. Like you said picks 49, 52, and 55 wouldn't have changed, but with GWS using up pick 56 as well our pick 58 would be come pick 57, 12 points better. This means if we bid on Green the deficit would have been 194.
Good points. It would have changed things slightly again. If we end up with pick 6 -> 8 and pick 9 -> 12. I think the rest would stay as per my previous post.

I agree with the sentiment that we could have done this better and should’ve traded for more points prior to the draft to eliminate the need to act in desperation When Henry was bid on.
 

freo_leo29

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Good points. It would have changed things slightly again. If we end up with pick 6 -> 8 and pick 9 -> 12. I think the rest would stay as per my previous post.

I agree with the sentiment that we could have done this better and should’ve traded for more points prior to the draft to eliminate the need to act in desperation When Henry was bid on.
If its under 200 i believe the deficit is wiped


There are also the unknowns in that we traded to get our picks that we used to match, we may have traded for other picks if GWS had to use their picks up before ours which would have a flow on effect of shifting all other draft picks up, The club has already said that they had multiple trades set up
 

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Dockeroo

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If its under 200 i believe the deficit is wiped


There are also the unknowns in that we traded to get our picks that we used to match, we may have traded for other picks if GWS had to use their picks up before ours which would have a flow on effect of shifting all other draft picks up, The club has already said that they had multiple trades set up
Where exactly is the evidence that deficits under 200 points are wiped out?
As far as I know that is simply not true.
 

Superkoops

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Looks to me like we will finish in our current 14th position and end with Pick 5 pushed back to pick 8. This will leave us with 62 points surplus and the points surplus should be handy with Western and Walker likely after our 2nd round pick. My understanding is that the points surplus is carried forward to offset future deficit which we will likely face at the end of the next draft.
 

more_of_bito

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Please rename thread Drafting Deficit Disaster.
Are you saying we should have passed on Henry?
Even if we had bid on Green we still have a deficit. Unless you can show me your post on draft night within an hour of henry’s Name stating an alternate solution ( not stolen then rehashed months after), otherwise I disagree with anyone that this was an incorrect decision or a “disaster” .
 

Dockeroo

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I have recently spruiked it but can't find it anywhere. Even the original comment on BF.
According to some knowledgeable main board posters it’s definitely not true. There is a team this season with a 190 point deficit and it will be paid, it might be port Adelaide from memory
 

Joao

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Well, thanks to us being half decent now, our first is out to 11 and unlikely to be better than that (Essendon aren't beating Melbourne and Gold Coast aren't beating the Pies you wouldn't think). Depending on results we could get as high as 9th (technically 8th but I think technically is a good description for the likelihood).

I'm disappointed for draft time but pretty happy considering we were concerned with what would happen if we ended up with pick 1 there for a while.

Kudos to JL for rounds 5-17.
 

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Superkoops

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Aside from academy picks there is also the possibility of two compo picks in the top 10 (Daniher and Crouch). So we could get pushed back to 13/14. At the end of the day it’s an extremely compromised draft and with so many unknowns I’ve dealt what will be. Also our original pick 7/8 would likely get pushed back to around 10/11 if we didn’t have the deficit.

For those obsessed with the fact that the deficit has cost us Logan. He wouldn’t have been available at 7/8 in any case, quite probably neither will have DGB.
 

Dockeroo

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Aside from academy picks there is also the possibility of two compo picks in the top 10 (Daniher and Crouch). So we could get pushed back to 13/14. At the end of the day it’s an extremely compromised draft and with so many unknowns I’ve dealt what will be. Also our original pick 7/8 would likely get pushed back to around 10/11 if we didn’t have the deficit.

For those obsessed with the fact that the deficit has cost us Logan. He wouldn’t have been available at 7/8 in any case, quite probably neither will have DGB.
Agreed, if winning these last few games helps us sign cerra, Andy, Serong and young on long term deals it will be well worth it.
We will still get a very decent player with pick 11/12. And I’m pretty sure there won’t be any FA compensation picks in the top 10 this year, maybe Daniher but who would offer him big long term bucks with his injury history? I saw somewhere here yesterday that crouch not going to get offered near enough for band 1 compo either.
 

CapitalA

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It’s the first time in 5 years that we have been humming in the 2nd half of the season. Much rather that than going into the draft with false hope
More like 8 years even 2015 we rocked up to finals completly crippled and scraping the wins/losing to teams we should beat at the end of the h&a season.
 

Lach72

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I was thinking today I f this was a 22round season we’d be steaming along nicely.
Apart from the guys already ruled out we have a reasonably healthy list, an 8 day break and would looking forward to round 18 and the push for finals.

and the young kids and the oldies don’t look sore AF which is a novelty
 

Lach72

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True i just mean the last time i felt we finished a year strongly was probably 2012/13.

Back on topic though I reckon we could still pick up a good player with pick 11/12/13 that slides. Like dockeroo said i rather get the wins for the culture than higher draft picks.
yeah with Western and Walker in the sheds I’m comfortable with where we’re at
 

hoopdaloop

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So if our pick becomes 12 after the deficit from pick 8, does that factor in the standalone pick 11 that gold coast kindly donated to geelong last year? Would that make it pick 13 before any bids coming through? I feel we can still get a really good player in that range and as nurries said the form we have shown recently is worth more than a pick or two either way.
 

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