Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Turbocat]

It would certainly fk Tim Kelly

I don't believe Geelong will do it to a player ..there are a range of outcomes that are possible but not probable. If he wants to go a deal will be worked out .. and in most cases if one sides think they paid too much and the other thinks they got short changed ...its usually a reasonable deal.

 

[STPer18]

Currently leading the coaches votes with 18. Solid start to the year, a BOG against the Pies, and then 2nd best against the Dees according to the coaches.

 

[Warhorse]

We've contracted them for 4 years each, they are part of our long term plan as Kelly is Geelong's. They aren't streak knives that's for sure. Allen is from West Perth so there is no pull of home anyway. Brander is from country Victoria so a smart agent would be getting in his ear about returning home, not being 4th in line etc.

You are right. Both players look very promising and are not steak knives. They would be a key component of any trade if the eagles where to trade them (unlikely).

With Kelly, If you drafted a young kid with pick 5 and he ended up playing the level of football Kelly is playing in his mid 20s you would be extremely happy. That's not to say he is worth pick 5 though as players rarely get what they are worth in a trade.

Certainly hard to see a way forward with interesting times ahead

 

[Warhorse]

Geelong will receive West Coats first pick in 2019
Wets Coast will receive Tim Kelly

3rd or 2nd round steak knives may be thrown around, but that will be the crux of the deal.

Horrible deal for geelong but sadly you are probably right

 

[Scotland]

You are right. Both players look very promising and are not steak knives. They would be a key component of any trade if the eagles where to trade them (unlikely).

To put it simply, they've not been put up for trade by the club nor have they requested to move. From WC's POV they don't have anything to do with any potential trade at this point.

With Kelly, If you drafted a young kid with pick 5 and he ended up playing the level of football Kelly is playing in his mid 20s you would be extremely happy. That's not to say he is worth pick 5 though as players rarely get what they are worth in a trade.

Certainly hard to see a way forward with interesting times ahead

You would, but no club would use pick 5 on an untried 24 year old in the draft. Even Kelly going at pick 24 was rare. Kelly only having at most two full seasons of form at AFL level will count against him to some degree compared to guys like those GWS mids mentioned who have 4-7 years. If Kelly was 19/20 with two great years out of the blocks he'd be hotter property than he is at 25.

From our perspective the nearest equivalent is Gaff (pick 4, 2010, 27) or Sheed (pick 11, 2013, 24) in terms out outlay. Gaff has basically just got better over time, but was racking up 25 touches a game from his second year and probably would have in his first if we didn't keep using him as a sub. Sheed on the other hand has been up and down. Good second year, injured, good fourth year, slow start last year and was out of the side a bit and then hit his straps before the finals. Averaging 33 touches and a goal from two starts this year. If we lost him I'd be annoyed not just because he is playing great footy but because we invested an early pick and years of development getting him to that point. If Sheed goes on to have an amazing year his trade value would still reflect the previous 5.

 

[Obeanie1]

Its Ground Hog Day

Do we need to flog this to death........again?

 

[Obeanie1]

He's worth a top 10 pick comfortably. And bundling up mid range picks for the draft pounts equivalent wont get it done. We'll find out how much WCE want him and whether the Kellys want to get back home or if they just really want to avoid Freo. Will be interesting.

Well you better hope the Eagles slide and land a top 10 pick because last year proved teams dont trade top 10 picks without getting a pretty decent player.

Not aware of any top 10 pick valued players wanting out of the Eagles.

Can only offer what you have.

 

[Monocle]

What we plebs think Kelly is worth doesn't mean a lot.

Look at it this way with all the banter from Cats fans asking for Brander or Allen and a pick in the 20's , then reality check that against West Coast recruiting and drafting team.

West Coast could have taken Kelly before either Brander or Allen in his draft cohort but chose to pass on Kelly, clearly they rated Kelly lower than where they took the eventual West Coast pair.
Now whilst we can debate the merit of that assessment, thats a pretty clear indication of how internally WC rated the players.
Its a difficult and tricky assessment two KPP with potential against a ready made midfielder who is 6 years their senior, both options have pros and cons.

Kelly has been sensational and is an instant plug in ready to play player in ANY team.

The way Allen has started this season I cant see him being involved in any trade to secure Kelly, Allen looks like being a really good player .....and..... IMO quality KPP are always much harder to find.
Brander is also held in very high regard at the Club and given that WC have historically placed HIGH value on KPP I think they would be very reluctant to part with Brander without his strong wish to be traded.

I believe that WC chased Kelly's signature hard last season believing that Gaff was on the way back to Victoria and Kelly would be a handy replacement, now as we all know that didn't eventuate.

How this all pans out will be a fascinating watch and the banter between the supporters will be entertaining to say the least.

The ultimate finishing spots for both teams at season end will recalibrate what is deemed as trading priorities and positional needs.

Like I said earlier ............ going to be fascinating and entertaining to watch how this all unfolds.

 

[Warhorse]

It also depends on how the eagles go this year. Kelly makes them an immediately better team and West Coast will weigh up how close they are to another flag. I think WC will go harder if they lose a close prelim and think Kelly could improve their list.

On another note Kelly has started the year well which indicates he may stay. He will get tagged this year so wait and see how he goes. He is now geelong second best midfielder behind Dangerfield imo

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Gonna be a lonnnnng year. I hope he re-signs soon.

Whether he stays or goes it won't be decided until season's end IMO.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You can only nominate for the draft after trade week is done and dusted. Geelong wouldn't give him DFA status.

If he went into the draft and Geelong had a pick before West Coast, wouldn't Geelong pick him up?

I think the draft posturing is silly because he's got value. If Geelong let Kelly walk to the draft because they wanted a pick inside 10 and West Coast only had something 11-18 it would be a terrible list management decision.

I agree that said I think the PSD threat is irrelevant because neither Kelly or his partner will risk going in that lottery. As much as she wants to get home I expect theyd re-sign at Geelong before they go PSD. Also factor in that Geelong will likely line up a trade replacement for Kelly and have a history of dealing quickly in trade week...they wont want this to run til the last day as they will want a replacement. I expect at the start of trade week they will say something to wce like 'heres deal A that we want heres deal B thats the max compromise we will accept, youve got 72 hours to come up with either. After that he can choose long term offers at Geelong or Freo or whatever else he wants and we all move on."

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think you will find he could nominate for the National..and put a price on his head to deter some from drafting him. Most bottom teams woul not draft him using an early single figure pick imo

Freo would not that i think he'd go near the draft anyway.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Well you better hope the Eagles slide and land a top 10 pick because last year proved teams dont trade top 10 picks without getting a pretty decent player.

Not aware of any top 10 pick valued players wanting out of the Eagles.

Can only offer what you have.

I agree with that, but Geelong will be pushing for WCE to involve a 3rd club and get a top 10 pick or whatever they need to bring in Kellys trade replacement (they wont be trading Kelly to take the picks to the draft). One factor overlooked is there was little reason for WCE to bend over backwards last year as they knew they could try again in 12 months. This year that option is gone, Kelly needs to sign a 5 year deal wherever it is so if Geelong and WCE cant find middle ground he has to do 5 years at Geelong, 5 at Freo or the draft. So there will be a lot more pressure on both WCE and the Kelly's to get a deal done. So i don't think last year means much in context.

 

[foxdog50]

I wonder if the reports are true saying his interested to go to Freo now... I just don't know how he could change his mind that quick were all reports were saying he doesn't want to go there... His manager sounds like a bit of w***er to be honest.

 

[kaiserchief13]

If I was Eagles I'd offer pick 15 max and if Geelong don't want it they can have him leave for free. If not to WC then another team and he'll be paid a lot more than at Geelong at that team. Geelong screwing him over by not increasing his pay but also want him to stay. Absolute dogs

 

[Turbocat]

Its Ground Hog Day

Do we need to flog this to death........again?

Yep and its only R2... but to be fair the professional rags lead with article about it after his first week BOG

 

[Moist Biscuit]

If he's happy to play in Purple I wouldn't be against trading our first this year for him. Even if it happens to be pick 5 or 6.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

If I was Eagles I'd offer pick 15 max and if Geelong don't want it they can have him leave for free. If not to WC then another team and he'll be paid a lot more than at Geelong at that team. Geelong screwing him over by not increasing his pay but also want him to stay. Absolute dogs

Mmm

The first two yearsof every players contract are fixed when they enter the AFL system. It would be astounding if the Cats didn't offer a significant payrise next year, the first year they can.

 

[Gunf]

Mmm

The first two yearsof every players contract are fixed when they enter the AFL system. It would be astounding if the Cats didn't offer a significant payrise next year, the first year they can.

We had a deal at 600k+ in front of him last year but you are correct initial draft contracts can't be changed

 

[Turbocat]

What we plebs think Kelly is worth doesn't mean a lot.

Look at it this way with all the banter from Cats fans asking for Brander or Allen and a pick in the 20's , then reality check that against West Coast recruiting and drafting team.

West Coast could have taken Kelly before either Brander or Allen in his draft cohort but chose to pass on Kelly, clearly they rated Kelly lower than where they took the eventual West Coast pair.
Now whilst we can debate the merit of that assessment, thats a pretty clear indication of how internally WC rated the players.
Its a difficult and tricky assessment two KPP with potential against a ready made midfielder who is 6 years their senior, both options have pros and cons.

Kelly has been sensational and is an instant plug in ready to play player in ANY team.

The way Allen has started this season I cant see him being involved in any trade to secure Kelly, Allen looks like being a really good player .....and..... IMO quality KPP are always much harder to find.
Brander is also held in very high regard at the Club and given that WC have historically placed HIGH value on KPP I think they would be very reluctant to part with Brander without his strong wish to be traded.

I believe that WC chased Kelly's signature hard last season believing that Gaff was on the way back to Victoria and Kelly would be a handy replacement, now as we all know that didn't eventuate.

How this all pans out will be a fascinating watch and the banter between the supporters will be entertaining to say the least.

The ultimate finishing spots for both teams at season end will recalibrate what is deemed as trading priorities and positional needs.

Like I said earlier ............ going to be fascinating and entertaining to watch how this all unfolds.

Good post...

Id only add imo. IF west coast had know they were going to be threatening for flags top4 etc ..I suspect they may have taken Kelly with one of those picks in draft rather than the long term player , especially with the thought that Gaff would be a strong chance of going.

Thru the year ..perhaps they "went hard " but by trade week we all knew WC were more than just threatening , they had the flag and Gaff was staying ..who knows what that did to their demands or SC space ..one would think the TK recruitment must become slightly less urgent to get. Certainly WC set their line and said no more so they were happy enough to go without.

Another Preseason and it looks like Allen at least looks a very likely long termer. ..and Im sure there would be another player or two that may now be showing potential.. Pertrochellli ?

Kelly may find that things have changed a bit in those two seasons..he has become a high price player and WC have found multiple players and kept Gaff. Im sure WC would still like him but Im not sure they are willing to really hurt to get him. Freo perhaps would offer more after their loss of a very good mid to Brisbane. Just how attractive are Freo to TK?Last year ..not very but there has already been media reports that he would be more willing to look at them. Probably just posturing? Time will tell.

You are spot on.. how it all unfolds will be fascinating.

 

[Turbocat]

If he's happy to play in Purple I wouldn't be against trading our first this year for him. Even if it happens to be pick 5 or 6.

What did you get for Neale ?
Something like 6 and 19 for Neal and 30 I think.. As others have said..there is never any deal thats an exact template .. but as far as age and expect performance goes probably similar..dollars both will be highish I'd have thought. Dual B&F winner so he has that over Kelly..
It will be interesting ..where the rubber meets the road. Freo I'd have thought could offer a hard to knock back dollars offer.

 

[Virgin Dog]

What did you get for Neale ?

In case that's not rhetorical or sarcasm, the trade was:

Lachie Neale + Pick 30 <---> Pick 5, Pick 19, Pick 55

This values Lachie Neale at between Pick 2 and 3 in draft point value. Subjectively, I think Neale is the more valuable player, partially because I simply think he's a better player, but also because he has proven his ability over a longer stretch of time (with the leadership skills coming with him). He was also forced to be the number 1 mid in the absence of Fyfe (and 2nd when Fyfe was present) while Kelly has been playing behind Danger, Selwood and arguably Duncan (although may overtake Duncan this year).

That means an offer of Pick 5 or 6 should be more than enough for Kelly, and I'd say Geelong would be satisfied with an offer like that

 

[Turbocat]

In case that's not rhetorical or sarcasm, the trade was:

Lachie Neale + Pick 30 <---> Pick 5, Pick 19, Pick 55

This values Lachie Neale at between Pick 2 and 3 in draft point value. Subjectively, I think Neale is the more valuable player, partially because I simply think he's a better player, but also because he has proven his ability over a longer stretch of time (with the leadership skills coming with him). He was also forced to be the number 1 mid in the absence of Fyfe (and 2nd when Fyfe was present) while Kelly has been playing behind Danger, Selwood and arguably Duncan (although may overtake Duncan this year).

That means an offer of Pick 5 or 6 should be more than enough for Kelly, and I'd say Geelong would be satisfied with an offer like that

Yes went and looked it up ... as I said there are no exact comparisons. Previously Geelong have said they wanted a top 10 pick so you may be right.
Id say that in a side that has all those players he has now moved in and become the player other clubs shut down. On Sat Night Melb tagged Kelly rather than Danger..he is still on an upward trend after missing the B&F by 1 vote last year.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Yes went and looked it up ... as I said there are no exact comparisons. Previously Geelong have said they wanted a top 10 pick so you may be right.
Id say that in a side that has all those players he has now moved in and become the player other clubs shut down. On Sat Night Melb tagged Kelly rather than Danger..he is still on an upward trend after missing the B&F by 1 vote last year.

For what it's worth, I think he was worth somewhere around Pick 10 to 12 last year. So long as he continues to improve, I think it's more likely he fetches a price closer to Pick 6 to 9 (although this could come from a combination of picks like a first and third).

 

[Turbocat]

For what it's worth, I think he was worth somewhere around Pick 10 to 12 last year. So long as he continues to improve, I think it's more likely he fetches a price closer to Pick 6 to 9 (although this could come from a combination of picks like a first and third).

Just depends on who he goes to...