Unofficial Preview 2020 Draft Discussion

[Billyc]

I feel like this would be the year to load up on a few more late picks, try and pluck out the raw underdone kids with great potential etc. Could easily grab some uber talented kids that havn’t had a chance to show much...

Means you need to clear more list spots. Sounding like about 10 players will need to go to take the mandatory 3 picks to the draft. If we want more (and I agree with you), we will need to cut a large number from the list. Interesting times

 

[Brishawk]

Here is a model of this draft v a normal draft.

The likelihood of landing a good layer essentially follows an exponential decay or some similar curve. I have developed this chart as a guide - don't treat it as accurate!

The blue line is normal and I have assumed a decay of 10%. For the 2020 draft I have halved the rate of decay to 5% which makes the decay slower (flatter curve). But I have also added in a general penalty of a flat 20% for missing a year of development for many of the players and far fewer games on which to base decisions. In this illustration you can see the very top end of the draft is less certain than normal but still the best place to be. As you go into the first round you actually end up with a better chance than normal to land a good player but by about pick 27 the probability falls back below normal and even goes into negative territory (treat as zero) earlier than where the blue lines reaches zero probability. So normally you have a positive probability for at least the top 50 but that number is smaller for 2020 under these kinds of assumptions.



If the penalty is 30% then there is no point in the draft where you are better off than normal.


Moral of the story, if you think your knowledge of players is not too compromised by the current crisis, then top 25 picks are probably going to be worth trading into. If you think your knowledge/judgement is heavily compromised pick the minimum number players you can.

 

[TylerDurden]

Means you need to clear more list spots. Sounding like about 10 players will need to go to take the mandatory 3 picks to the draft. If we want more (and I agree with you), we will need to cut a large number from the list. Interesting times

Do you get the feeling the Irish guys are just gonna walk? Like McKenna and Handley have just done?

 

[Billyc]

Do you get the feeling the Irish guys are just gonna walk? Like McKenna and Handley have just done?

Walk / pushed. Either way you’d have to think they are both gone. Can’t imagine they’d be loving life at the moment while all their friends and family in Europe party like there’s no pandemic either!

You’d think this might mark the end of Hawks experimental and risky drafting. Threepeat and large lists bought us the right to take punts on Irish, New Zealand kids, high risk blokes like Garlett and injury riddled players. You’d think that’s over now

 

[Adebisi]

While this draft likely increases the likelihood of landing a star at a late pick, all picks are probably worth less on average than in a draft where you have seen the players play and put them through testing. The likelihood of landing a lemon will be a lot higher. The early years of the draft were horrific because players were being selected with very little information at hand. I’d guess we will dry to be in and out of the draft by end of the second round if we can manage it.

I guess it comes down to how good we are at talent assessment even more than other years. Having way less exposure to many of these players increases the range of potential results from lemon to gun as you mentioned. More exposure would equal the playing field across all clubs. If we are confident on identifying younger talent, we could uncover a gem late in the draft. Could well be that a pick in the 60’s is just as successful as one in the 30’s. Perfect position to take a flyer on someone with heaps of potential. Similar to what we did with Liam Shiels if i remember correctly.

 

[Brishawk]

I guess it comes down to how good we are at talent assessment even more than other years. Having way less exposure to many of these players increases the range of potential results from lemon to gun as you mentioned. More exposure would equal the playing field across all clubs. If we are confident on identifying younger talent, we could uncover a gem late in the draft. Could well be that a pick in the 60’s is just as successful as one in the 30’s. Perfect position to take a flyer on someone with heaps of potential. Similar to what we did with Liam Shiels if i remember correctly.

I appreciate what you are saying but the only view of Victorian players we have are games a year ago. The champs are typically the most important piece of information used by recruiters and we don’t have them. I’m hoping the state matches go ahead so there is something to go on.

 

[sohsam]

I guess it comes down to how good we are at talent assessment even more than other years. Having way less exposure to many of these players increases the range of potential results from lemon to gun as you mentioned. More exposure would equal the playing field across all clubs. If we are confident on identifying younger talent, we could uncover a gem late in the draft. Could well be that a pick in the 60’s is just as successful as one in the 30’s. Perfect position to take a flyer on someone with heaps of potential. Similar to what we did with Liam Shiels if i remember correctly.

You are exactly right, in that respect, 2020 is no different to any other year. If we are using footage from Vic players from a year ago, becomes a lottery for even top 10 picks. Wasn't Jeka a top 10 player year before and we got him as rookie? Take last year as example, if not picked up day, would you have got 3 picks 25-35 to pick up 3 good players. Although I appreciate other clubs are not silly, if someone was and could net 3-4 picks, instead of only one high pick, would it be good? If we are in a rush to move up the ladder, then need to bring in 3-4 good players a year, whether draft, rookie, from other clubs. Having said that, I think we have a number of later picks that we could not use last year and we traded with other clubs. Hence, if this year is more of a lottery, then could use those picks as well. Obviously still if you have picks in 25-35 range you get first crack, rather than wait till pick 60-80 range.

 

[Noel Gallagher]

We need a Hollands or Bruhn type of player much more than a Phillips.

Hopefully Finn can come in and develop into another big contested mid with some pace as well.

Don’t you just draft best available player with your pick? What if Phillips is the next Joel Selwood?? What if Mitchell never recaptures his form pre knee? Don’t forget Phillips is really quick unlike Mitchell and to a lesser extent Worpel

If Finn does come on as hoped than the more the merrier. We all know that the top teams have midfields that bat very deeply - something we haven’t done since the glory years 2012-2015

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Don’t you just draft best available player with your pick? What if Phillips is the next Joel Selwood?? What if Mitchell never recaptures his form pre knee? Don’t forget Phillips is really quick unlike Mitchell and to a lesser extent Worpel

If Finn does come on as hoped than the more the merrier. We all know that the top teams have midfields that bat very deeply - something we haven’t done since the glory years 2012-2015

I think based on talent Hollands is the best available. It just so happens that he's also a much better fit for us than Phillips too. I'd be happy with either, but Hollands really sounds like a dream match.

 

[Brishawk]

Don’t you just draft best available player with your pick? What if Phillips is the next Joel Selwood?? What if Mitchell never recaptures his form pre knee? Don’t forget Phillips is really quick unlike Mitchell and to a lesser extent Worpel

If Finn does come on as hoped than the more the merrier. We all know that the top teams have midfields that bat very deeply - something we haven’t done since the glory years 2012-2015

I agree best available. But I don't think Phillips will be best available at our pick. Others disagree course which is where the debate lies I think more so than picking on type alone. I feel if Hollands and Bruhn were not injured and had played to form they would be in the top five. So hard to judge where players are going to fall. We may not rate Phillips highly but North might rate him top 2 and take him before we even get a pick.

 

[Walshawk]

Has it been mentioned that we cannot trade pick 3! Phew.

 

[Brishawk]

Has it been mentioned that we cannot trade pick 3! Phew.

Not true. We need to use a first round pick but it doesn’t have to be pick 3.

 

[WWSD]

I really want Wright to get Logan McDonald with pick 3, but if we ended up with Hollands if he’s still available with that pick, that wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

C: Day, Hollands, Downie
R: Reeves, Worpel, Maginness

 

[danielG]

I agree best available. But I don't think Phillips will be best available at our pick. Others disagree course which is where the debate lies I think more so than picking on type alone. I feel if Hollands and Bruhn were not injured and had played to form they would be in the top five. So hard to judge where players are going to fall. We may not rate Phillips highly but North might rate him top 2 and take him before we even get a pick.

Hollands is the sexier selection.. He’s a very nice mover and has the skills.. There are a few things that might count against him.. His injury obviously is a real reason to scare teams of using a very high pick.. secondly his stats weren’t outrageously good.. I think he averaged 22 touches and one goal.. that’s not the stats of someone that just has to be a number one pick in a draft.. he missed this year to show that was just the start of bigger things so I’d be worried using pick 1, 2 or 3 on him.. Phillips looks like a sure thing.. he’s just so hard at the ball.. his kicking style is awkward and his stature doesn’t scream top 5 pick but his play makes him a very safe bet.. reading on the North draft board a lot of them aren’t against going with Phillips..I’m personally hoping for Hollands just because I like a high risk high reward selection but I would understand going a different direction..

 

[JaegarTime]

Hollands is the sexier selection.. He’s a very nice mover and has the skills.. There are a few things that might count against him.. His injury obviously is a real reason to scare teams of using a very high pick.. secondly his stats weren’t outrageously good.. I think he averaged 22 touches and one goal.. that’s not the stats of someone that just has to be a number one pick in a draft.. he missed this year to show that was just the start of bigger things so I’d be worried using pick 1, 2 or 3 on him.. Phillips looks like a sure thing.. he’s just so hard at the ball.. his kicking style is awkward and his stature doesn’t scream top 5 pick but his play makes him a very safe bet.. reading on the North draft board a lot of them aren’t against going with Phillips..I’m personally hoping for Hollands just because I like a high risk high reward selection but I would understand going a different direction..

May only get it 22 times but if most of those are effective and putting the team in attack then I’d take that over 30+ non damaging touches. Also, Hollands wasn’t really used as a pure midfielder either so that would explain the lower disposal count.

 

[Brishawk]

Hollands is the sexier selection.. He’s a very nice mover and has the skills.. There are a few things that might count against him.. His injury obviously is a real reason to scare teams of using a very high pick.. secondly his stats weren’t outrageously good.. I think he averaged 22 touches and one goal.. that’s not the stats of someone that just has to be a number one pick in a draft.. he missed this year to show that was just the start of bigger things so I’d be worried using pick 1, 2 or 3 on him.. Phillips looks like a sure thing.. he’s just so hard at the ball.. his kicking style is awkward and his stature doesn’t scream top 5 pick but his play makes him a very safe bet.. reading on the North draft board a lot of them aren’t against going with Phillips..I’m personally hoping for Hollands just because I like a high risk high reward selection but I would understand going a different direction..

Holland’s played more forward than mid and averaged 22 as a bottom age player. That coupled with his skills and vision make him a real stand out sans knee. as for Phillips, he is far from a sure thing. He has clear weaknesses. He isn’t likely to grow bigger. And I have concerns over his kicking, particularly his kicking penetration. Doesn’t mean he can’t make it. Doesn’t mean he can’t become a good afl player. But he had a lot of work to do to demonstrate he can translate his game to the afl.

 

[HAWKSBESTEVA]

Holland’s or McDonald the dream

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Holland’s or McDonald the dream

 

[Hawk Vision]

Don’t you just draft best available player with your pick? What if Phillips is the next Joel Selwood?? What if Mitchell never recaptures his form pre knee? Don’t forget Phillips is really quick unlike Mitchell and to a lesser extent Worpel

If Finn does come on as hoped than the more the merrier. We all know that the top teams have midfields that bat very deeply - something we haven’t done since the glory years 2012-2015

I agree Phillips looks like Selwood MarkII without the ducking / general floggishness. Philips has outside speed to burn too. He also has that extreamly rare ability to relax in heavy traffic / contact...which means he evades tackles & makes lighting quick decisions beautifully similiar to Sam Mitchel. Only one player I have seen with similiar qualities was Cyril, but he was on another level. I would take Philips before all the other players mentioned by some margin.

 

[TylerDurden]

I agree Phillips looks like Selwood MarkII without the ducking / general floggishness. Philips has outside speed to burn too. He also has that extreamly rare ability to relax in heavy traffic / contact...which means he evades tackles & makes lighting quick decisions beautifully similiar to Sam Mitchel. Only one player I have seen with similiar qualities was Cyril, but he was on another level. I would take Philips before all the other players mentioned by some margin.

KM has him at 3. Seems to polarise opinions this bloke.

 

[Hawk Vision]

I forgot to mention Phillips is touted to have great work ethic and leadership qualities. Our on field leadership currently is at an all time low. In 2004 onwards we drafted skillful hard nuts with great on field leadership. This intangible is key to premierships.

 

[Jake_09]

I have a mate of a mate who is a recruiter for an interstate club. He said last year was that that club expected us to take Will Day with our pick if available..this was about a week out from the draft. I asked last week if there was any goss he could share. Apparently due to no footy in Vic, predicting other clubs draft boards has become a whole lot tougher. The only bit I got was JUH is the consensus no.1 talent

 

[Agent8686]

Assuming Hollands and McDonald are gone before our pick, I think Will Phillips will be the best talent available at our pick.

I would also like to upgrade our pick 21 to a first rounder so we can also grab Heath Champman

 

[Brishawk]

I agree Phillips looks like Selwood MarkII without the ducking / general floggishness. Philips has outside speed to burn too. He also has that extreamly rare ability to relax in heavy traffic / contact...which means he evades tackles & makes lighting quick decisions beautifully similiar to Sam Mitchel. Only one player I have seen with similiar qualities was Cyril, but he was on another level. I would take Philips before all the other players mentioned by some margin.

Please share footage of Phillips moving laterally in congestion to avoid being tackled and create time for himself. I have watched him 3-4 times and don’t recall ever seeing it.

 

[Hawk Vision]

There’s tones of footage on you tube...not saying he’s a freak at it, more so have a look at how he relaxes in heavy traffic, that’s a rare breed.

Also I’m only going off highlight videos, and it’s just my point of view. The recruiters have a much better perspective, and I trust whoever we land will be a jet.