Club Focus Collingwood 2021 - Kreuger, Lipinski, Daicos, Murley, Harrison

[eastfreo75]

I would say we might lose a couple of players for late picks with points to try and bridge the gap.

It all depends on where the bid comes too. In a dream scenario if North took Horne and GWS bid on Darcy first then we would already have enough points I think.

The alternatives are to try and use a future pick to get into the second or third round this year or we just cop it and go into deficit on our first pick in 2022.

A few thoughts.

Buy off the Roos ie trade second round 2022 for pick 38. Get the Roos not to bid on Dacios.

That move will get the Magpies enough points.

Roos may want more for the bribe.

 

[Bay Pie]

Why should Dogs do a goodwill trade - they also need points for Darcy. I would love to see how Pies get the picks & Lipinski & Krueger. Surely that have to put somebody reasonable on the table at some time during trade week.

2022 3rd rounder for a 2021 3rd rounder is enough points for a pick 2 bid.
Lipinski file via PSD
Krueger for Lynch if Cats want a ruck or mid/late 50’s 2022 pick.

We don’t need WBD goodwill at all. Quite the opposite. They have zero leverage this year. Appears a fairly easy requirement really. That’s all without trading pick 36/37 for 2 later picks with higher point values.

 

[Crazy Tails]

A few thoughts.

Buy off the Roos ie trade second round 2022 for pick 38. Get the Roos not to bid on Dacios.

That move will get the Magpies enough points.

Roos may want more for the bribe.

Not sure Id do that our 2nd next year could be 19-25; swapping for 38 seems unders.

I’d prefer to shuffle a few picks back on our first next year and keep the 2nd rounder. Having only pick 1-5 not as appealing to me as having 2-7 & still holding 19-25.

PS I like the bribe angle though!


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[Glek]

2022 3rd rounder for a 2021 3rd rounder is enough points for a pick 2 bid.
Lipinski file via PSD
Krueger for Lynch if Cats want a ruck or mid/late 50’s 2022 pick.

We don’t need WBD goodwill at all. Quite the opposite. They have zero leverage this year. Appears a fairly easy requirement really. That’s all without trading pick 36/37 for 2 later picks with higher point values.

Cheers thanks for the reply - sounds fair. Best of luck for season 2022.

 

[Ants]

Yep. Our first options to secure a late pick or 2 with points value is trading one or more of these guys but we’ll need to keep of one the rucks as back up.

IMO, ND is not getting a bid at One by NM. Therefore we need around another 300 points to get ND at pick 2. The GWS recruiter had indicated that they’re more likely to bid on a key forward then a midfielder, so they may even bid on ND at 3, with Darcy at 2.
Perhaps a trade in their favour for some picks might help convince them

Else we have 2022 3rd and 4th rounders to secure one of Lipinski file and Frederick, the other in the PSD.

I’m very confident we can get both the above players in, have enough pick points for ND and not have a deficit, while retaining our 2022 1st and 2nd rounders.

At a favourable Pie guess and a ND bid-
Lipinski file: PSD
Frederick for 2022 4th rounder (mid/late 50’s pick)
2022 3rd rounder (late 30’s/early 40’s pick) for 2021 3rd rounder (something around 300 points)

Also have the option of trading our pick 36/37 on draft night with a prearranged deal for more points, to a team not looking to use those later picks, so we don’t have to be worried about list spaces, going into the draft. Gold Coast have quite a few 2021 late picks with points but not many list spaces but we might have a few and re-draft some fringe guys in the draft.

2022 3rd rounder for a 2021 3rd rounder is enough points for a pick 2 bid.
Lipinski file via PSD
Krueger for Lynch if Cats want a ruck or mid/late 50’s 2022 pick.

We don’t need WBD goodwill at all. Quite the opposite. They have zero leverage this year. Appears a fairly easy requirement really. That’s all without trading pick 36/37 for 2 later picks with higher point values.

You seem to be hoping for an awful lot of goodwill from North Melbourne here. They could bid at #1 on Daicos and take Lipinski ahead of you in the PSD.

 

[Bay Pie]

You seem to be hoping for an awful lot of goodwill from North Melbourne here. They could bid at #1 on Daicos and take Lipinski ahead of you in the PSD.

Haha. Nup. If we still had pick 2, I’d be concerned but they are taking Francisco-Horne pick one for the prestige of having the number one pick play for them and I think they rate him above Nick. We need around 2050 points for Nick.

No club takes a fringe player that doesn’t want to play for them. It’s purely a supporter opinion. List management doesn’t work that way.

 

[Go Woods]

Option A
Traded in: Lipinski and Kruger
Delist or trade the following players off main list total of 8: Greenwood, Mayne, Thomas, Cox, Sier, Rantall, Bianco, Madgen (we will need to remove this many because we need to take 6 live picks + 2 traded in players)
Draft picks currently 37, 39, 47, 50
Trade in pick 27ish and 57ish to cover Daicos points (use 2022 2nd rounder)
Draft in Daicos, Dibb, Rantall, Bianco, Madgen and 1 more player.

Option B
Go into deficit for the Daicos points. Moving down our 2022 1st but we get to keep our 2022 second rounder.
Delist 6 players.
Draft 4 players


Our list managers really made it hard when they traded out our 1st last year.

Bianco? Are you taking the p***.....

 

[eastfreo75]

Not sure Id do that our 2nd next year could be 19-25; swapping for 38 seems unders.

I’d prefer to shuffle a few picks back on our first next year and keep the 2nd rounder. Having only pick 1-5 not as appealing to me as having 2-7 & still holding 19-25.

PS I like the bribe angle though!


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Lets say Roos bid at 1.

That's 700 points drops off your first round for next year.

Pick 1 3000 - 700 = 2300 = pick 2

Pick 2 2400- 700 = 1700 = pick 6

Pick 3 2234 - 700 = 1534 = pick 8

Pick 4 2034 - 700 = 1334 = pick 10

Pick 5 1878 - 700 = 1178 = pick 13

Pick 6 1751 - 700 = 1051 = pick 16

That's a massive difference after pick 1.

If you can bribe the Roos at the right cost, not sure how that much costs?

 

[Crazy Tails]

Lets say Roos bid at 1.

That's 700 points drops off your first round for next year.

Pick 1 3000 - 700 = 2300 = pick 2

Pick 2 2400- 700 = 1700 = pick 6

Pick 3 2234 - 700 = 1534 = pick 8

Pick 4 2034 - 700 = 1334 = pick 10

Pick 5 1878 - 700 = 1178 = pick 13

Pick 6 1751 - 700 = 1051 = pick 16

That's a massive difference after pick 1.

If you can bribe the Roos at the right cost, not sure how that much costs?

Nicely laid out. Still think we can bridge most of the points (via player trade out) without giving up that future 2nd; time will tell I suppose.

 

[eastfreo75]

Nicely laid out. Still think we can bridge most of the points (via player trade out) without giving up that future 2nd; time will tell I suppose.

Brisbane need points for Ashcroft next year.

Maybe, swap 2022 third round pick for 47 which is 316 points.

As you said, maybe trade out a player for about 400 points and that would cover any bid at pick 1.

Even better would be get comprising pics of the North Melbourne's CEO and the Roos don't bid on Daicos.

 

[Ants]

Haha. Nup. If we still had pick 2, I’d be concerned but they are taking Francisco-Horne pick one for the prestige of having the number one pick play for them and I think they rate him above Nick. We need around 2050 points for Nick.

I don't think anyone here knows what North plans to do. The smart thing for them to do would be to bid. Costs them nothing and weakens an opponent.

No club takes a fringe player that doesn’t want to play for them. It’s purely a supporter opinion. List management doesn’t work that way.

Easy enough to say. Hard to prove. The only possibility was really Martin in the last 10 years. It has happened in the past, albeit a better quality of player.

 

[Ants]

One thing to remember here, is Collingwood may want excess points. Say they traded their 2022 R2 for pick #20.

• If Daicos is bid on at #1 then (ignoring FA compo pushing picks back) they'd use up picks 20, 36, 39, 41 and 45. They'd have 236 points which they'd get back (as pick #53), or could be used to consolidate two of the picks to try and reduce list spots needed. So need 4 rather than 5 list spots.
• If Daicos is bid on at #2 then (ignoring FA compo pushing picks back) they'd use up picks 20, 36, 39, and 41. They'd have 275 points (pick 50), or again allow consolidation of picks. So theoretically only need 3 empty list spots. And they can use #45 on a player rather than a later pick.

So trading into the second round may allow less picks to be used on guys ranked 60 or later in the draft and/or allow earlier picks to be used on those list spots.

They can get the same trade off with list spots by taking a bigger deficit into 2022. Effectively reduce the number of late picks used at the cost of a bigger hit to the 2022 R2.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Bianco? Are you taking the p***.....

We need to delist some players to take 6 selections into the draft. 8 players in total if we trade in 2 playets.The plan would be to redraft some of them like Bianco. Go through our out of contract players and work out who you would delist. I believe the Browns and Noble have a contract next season.

 

[Drop Kick]

Maybe they do, but I think North will go for Horne.

I'd imagine North will bid on Daicos at pick 1, Collingwood will then match the bid and pay the points, somehow, and move to the end of the draft queue,
then North will nominate the player they really want whilst laughing their heads off.

 

[Go Woods]

We need to delist some players to take 6 selections into the draft. 8 players in total if we trade in 2 playets.The plan would be to redraft some of them like Bianco. Go through our out of contract players and work out who you would delist. I believe the Browns and Noble have a contract next season.

Why do we need to take 6 players in the national draft? Isn’t it a minimum of 3 selections for all clubs??

 

[docko911]

Why do we need to take 6 players in the national draft? Isn’t it a minimum of 3 selections for all clubs??

You can only use as many picks to match bids as senior list spots available. It would be easier to obtain 6 picks that meet Daicos bid compared to say 4. Especially if that is the 2400 required for pick 1 bid.

 

[TradeDraft]

We need to delist some players to take 6 selections into the draft. 8 players in total if we trade in 2 playets.The plan would be to redraft some of them like Bianco. Go through our out of contract players and work out who you would delist. I believe the Browns and Noble have a contract next season.

Bianco was Best 22 in 2nd Half of the Season

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Why do we need to take 6 players in the national draft? Isn’t it a minimum of 3 selections for all clubs??

Because you need to clear a list spot for every pick you use to match a bid. You have 36 39 41 and 45 and you would need to trade in another 2 picks to match a top 3 bid. So you have to clear 6 list spots..all those picks go matching a bid then you get non points picks at the back of the draft to fill your 5 list spots where you can re-draft the players you delisted,if no one has taken them first (as theg become DFAs another club might take them as a DFA before the draft). So the trick is to delist players who you want to get back but who you think no other club will take first.

 

[tigerwill]

You can only use as many picks to match bids as senior list spots available. It would be easier to obtain 6 picks that meet Daicos bid compared to say 4. Especially if that is the 2400 required for pick 1 bid.

I thought that rule was rescinded

 

[Go Woods]

Because you need to clear a list spot for every pick you use to match a bid. You have 36 39 41 and 45 and you would need to trade in another 2 picks to match a top 3 bid. So you have to clear 6 list spots..all those picks go matching a bid then you get non points picks at the back of the draft to fill your 5 list spots where you can re-draft the players you delisted,if no one has taken them first (as theg become DFAs another club might take them as a DFA before the draft). So the trick is to delist players who you want to get back but who you think no other club will take first.

Ok, that now makes sense. I would still be avoiding delisting a required player such as Bianco tho.

 

[Ants]

I thought that rule was rescinded

It was temporarily suspended in 2020 due to the unexpected reduction in list sizes. It applies again in 2021.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Is the PSD a real threat? They likely want to hold on to picks this year for Daicos and we want picks this year as well.

No way Lipinski would do that to the Dogs

 

[Prochard123]

One thing to remember here, is Collingwood may want excess points. Say they traded their 2022 R2 for pick #20.

• If Daicos is bid on at #1 then (ignoring FA compo pushing picks back) they'd use up picks 20, 36, 39, 41 and 45. They'd have 236 points which they'd get back (as pick #53), or could be used to consolidate two of the picks to try and reduce list spots needed. So need 4 rather than 5 list spots.
• If Daicos is bid on at #2 then (ignoring FA compo pushing picks back) they'd use up picks 20, 36, 39, and 41. They'd have 275 points (pick 50), or again allow consolidation of picks. So theoretically only need 3 empty list spots. And they can use #45 on a player rather than a later pick.

So trading into the second round may allow less picks to be used on guys ranked 60 or later in the draft and/or allow earlier picks to be used on those list spots.

They can get the same trade off with list spots by taking a bigger deficit into 2022. Effectively reduce the number of late picks used at the cost of a bigger hit to the 2022 R2.

The worst case scenario we're like what, 700 points away? It's really cute how so many opposition supporters try to talk up this problem that can be so easily resolved lmfao.

All we need to do is

(1) Lynch for Kreuger (via Hawks in a 1 way deal)
(2) Cox for Lapinski (or else via the PSD...)
(3) Future 3rd (38-41 range), future 4th (56-58 range) to GC for pick 43, pick 55, pick 58 (all picks they probably won't use)

Don't forget we can also trade out pick 36/39 for later picks that can result in an increase of points, e.g.

Pick 41 to Lions for Pick 47 + Pick 51 = 180 points gain

We don't even need to trade out our future 2nd and definitely not compromise our future 1st.

Head into 2022 with Grundy as our durable main ruck and Cameron as our back-up.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Dogs don't have much leverage, we have the PSD threat. They'll accept what we give them. A future pick. Not our fault they need points. They can get it some other way.
They can just split their 1st rounder for some 2nds/3rds to make up the points. We're not gonna do them anymore favours than we have.

Wow

 

[Jen2310]

Wow

That probably sounds harsher than I intended lol I doubt the PSD will come into play, but its always lingering in the background for clubs on the bottom. Unless the dogs really get stubborn trying to keep someone that clearly wants out for opportunity, this should be done pretty swiftly.