Traded Jed Anderson [traded w/ picks 38 and 40 to NM for picks 15 and 54]

[Ry009]

Gee there's no crazy angle here. Jed could be a star and we got a good pick. Even Stevens in my view.

Yep, not every trade has to have one party do better than the other.

Pies and Dons still expecting every club to bend over and cop it.

Hawks and Roos usually pretty easy to deal with and have probably said the least in the media.

 

[Cynic]

I'd have rather kept Anderson.

But then again I don't like how he wouldn't wait a year so I just don't know.

 

[Richo83]

As stated, the AFL's points system is only valid if you're using the picks to bid for academy or FS players. As neither club is, and as this draft is widely accepted as being very shallow outside of the first round it means the trade is effectively Anderson for pick 15.

The AFL points system is based on rating players based on where they're drafted on a average salary over a period of time. The earlier you are picked, the better you tend to be and the more paid you are. Much like the NFL, it's basically used to measure a worth of a draft pick based on the kind of salary they earn, so it's exactly designed to measure a draft pick's worth.

Either club may not be bidding for any players, but trust me, the system can easily be used to figure out the specific worth of Anderson during this trade. The major reason why it possibly shouldn't is because this is a shallow draft, meaning that later picks may be over-valued by the points system.

 

[Richo83]

Picks 38 and 40 are also of no value to North Melbourne as far as drafting a kid goes. They might get lucky in this shallow draft and get someone decent but Hawthorn are just as likely with pick 54.

That's bullscrap, at no point in the draft's history has pick 38 been equal to pick 54. Even in shallow drafts, being 16 positions earlier gives you a better chance.

 

[TazHawk15]

2008 he kicked 8 goals v Geelong.

2010 he played 12 games for us and was clearly being forced out.

No hard feelings with Hale, stoked to see him win 1 2 3 flags because genuinely good guy, but let's not rewrite history.

Hawks are rewriting history all the time.

 

[cryptor]

The AFL points system is based on rating players based on where they're drafted on a average salary over a period of time. The earlier you are picked, the better you tend to be and the more paid you are. Much like the NFL, it's basically used to measure a worth of a draft pick based on the kind of salary they earn, so it's exactly designed to measure a draft pick's worth.

Either club may not be bidding for any players, but trust me, the system can easily be used to figure out the specific worth of Anderson during this trade. The major reason why it possibly shouldn't is because this is a shallow draft, meaning that later picks may be over-valued by the points system.

That's bullscrap, at no point in the draft's history has pick 38 been equal to pick 54. Even in shallow drafts, being 16 positions earlier gives you a better chance.

Thank you but I know how the system works. I'm also fully aware of the folly in using it to value draft picks particularly in a year with a shallow draft pool. Hence why I keep using the term "effectively".

The draft is apparently meant to be so shallow that anything after the end of the first round or early second round is considered pretty speculative. Hence picks in the first round are more valuable than most other years. Likewise picks outside of this round converge on a similar value that is much, much lower in relation. Yes, the chances of picking up a good player at pick 38 are going to be better than at pick 54 because there's over a dozen more picks that could get the player in a limited pool of players. But both picks chances are so incredibly low that they are effectively equal in value. In an extreme example you could say there's a 0.4% chance you get a good player at pick 38 in this draft and a 0.2% chance at pick 54. That's twice the chance you'll get a good player at pick 38 compared to pick 54, but given how low the chances are it's effectively no chance.

 

[Richo83]

Thank you but I know how the system works. I'm also fully aware of the folly in using it to value draft picks particularly in a year with a shallow draft pool. Hence why I keep using the term "effectively".

The draft is apparently meant to be so shallow that anything after the end of the first round or early second round is considered pretty speculative. Hence picks in the first round are more valuable than most other years. Likewise picks outside of this round converge on a similar value that is much, much lower in relation. Yes, the chances of picking up a good player at pick 38 are going to be better than at pick 54 because there's over a dozen more picks that could get the player in a limited pool of players. But both picks chances are so incredibly low that they are effectively equal in value. In an extreme example you could say there's a 0.4% chance you get a good player at pick 38 in this draft and a 0.2% chance at pick 54. That's twice the chance you'll get a good player at pick 38 compared to pick 54, but given how low the chances are it's effectively no chance.

No offence but those probabilities are a bit of an ass pull. No-one knows how this draft will effectively play out. You also neglect to mention that North have actually managed to move up the draft, pick 54 has become pick 38, meaning that, well, according to your probabilities, they've doubled their chances of getting a good player.

 

[TallyHawk]

All these flogs saying we wouldn't get a first rounder for Jed lol. We will either trade 15 and 18 for a future pick or take them to the draft and elevate Heatherly with pick 54.

 

[Fluro Boots]

Usually the sign of a fair deal is where the buyer feels they paid slightly to much and the seller feels they were slightly underpaid. I think this deal probably slots in there somewhere. North fans will be asking could we have done this some way and still kept our first rounder. Hawks fans will be wondering if we could have kept one of the second rounders. In the end the player gets where they want, both clubs happy enough, good deal.

 

[SnowRoo]

All these flogs saying we wouldn't get a first rounder for Jed lol. We will either trade 15 and 18 for a future pick or take them to the draft and elevate Heatherly with pick 54.

I know right!!







Just like those who think Jed + 2 second round picks means the Hawks got a 1st for Jed LOL.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

No immediate father sons at this stage. A few future ones are annoyingly at the swans academy getting indoctrinated.

Two future F/S with Jeds kids

 

[cryptor]

No offence but those probabilities are a bit of an ass pull. No-one knows how this draft will effectively play out. You also neglect to mention that North have actually managed to move up the draft, pick 54 has become pick 38, meaning that, well, according to your probabilities, they've doubled their chances of getting a good player.

You don't say? Perhaps the bit where I said "extreme example" might have made it obvious those numbers were made up.

Go read up on probability distribution. You quite clearly have limited knowledge and I don't do free tutoring.

 

[Yianni]

You don't say? Perhaps the bit where I said "extreme example" might have made it obvious those numbers were made up.

Go read up on probability distribution. You quite clearly have limited knowledge and I don't do free tutoring.

I think he was just saying the fact that you made the 0.2% and 0.4% numbers up weakens your assertions.

How deep this draft is and how far in value can be found is currently speculative, and will continue to be speculative for at least 3 years.

Until which point waxing lyrical and using statistical weasel words like 'effectively zero' is just pissing in the wind.

But by all means continue pretending to know the future. The floor is yours...

 

[cryptor]

I think he was just saying the fact that you made the 0.2% and 0.4% numbers up weakens your assertions.

How deep this draft is and how far in value can be found is currently speculative, and will continue to be speculative for at least 3 years.

Until which point waxing lyrical and using statistical weasel words like 'effectively zero' is just pissing in the wind.

But by all means continue pretending to know the future. The floor is yours...

Don't see how it weakens "my assertions" when I was very clear about it being an extreme example. I don't know enough about this draft to be able to assign an actual probability to each pick. I can only take on board the knowledgeable opinion of everyone who has a professional tie to the draft and again the general consensus is this one is shallow after the first round. That logically means picks outside the first round are going to be lucky to unearth a diamond in the rough player. By the time you get to the third round where these picks are the odds would be inconsequentially close relative to a first round pick like pick 15.

 

[Kangas_11]

I'd have rather kept Anderson.

But then again I don't like how he wouldn't wait a year so I just don't know.

To be fair, he's a 21 year old bloke with a young family to support.

It's a pretty sensible decision to make a switch to a different club that can offer more opportunities to play, and he's definitely in a better position now to show his worth and potentially earn a sizeable new contract at the end of next year.

 

[TallyHawk]

To be fair, he's a 21 year old bloke with a young family to support.

It's a pretty sensible decision to make a switch to a different club that can offer more opportunities to play, and he's definitely in a better position now to show his worth and potentially earn a sizeable new contract at the end of next year.

Spot on, disappointed we lost him but can't begrudge him for seeking more opportunities. Long bow but we have converted Stephen Gilham to Jed to a 1st round pick, can't complain too much.

 

[Bigeasy]

Good deal for both clubs. Very happy to have Jed, there is a risk with recruiting him but the potential reward is worth it.

Hawthorn reconfirm they are the best at the trade table, they just make things happen.

 

[HairyO]

Good deal for both clubs. Very happy to have Jed, there is a risk with recruiting him but the potential reward is worth it.

Hawthorn reconfirm they are the best at the trade table, they just make things happen.

Every pick is a risk. I would say there is less risk with Jed than Pick 15 in a supposedly weak draw.

 

[Bigeasy]

Every pick is a risk. I would say there is less risk with Jed than Pick 15 in a supposedly weak draw.

I was thinking more about his body standing up. No question about his ability.

 

[HairyO]

I was thinking more about his body standing up. No question about his ability.

He missed a year after catching pneumonia hunting geese in a swamp. I assume clubs put clauses in his contract to restrict this now

 

[cryptor]

Every pick is a risk. I would say there is less risk with Jed than Pick 15 in a supposedly weak draw.

*shallow. Not weak. There is decent quality right down to the early 2nd round according to the professionals who I've heard from.

 

[TwentyNine]

People told us off for Higgins and Waite last year and they both had career best years. Unsurprisingly people don't learn and are now telling us off for Jed. I can't remember the last time we traded a first round pick so we must really bloody rate him to have done so. Very confident.

On another note: It's not like every trade has to be a brutal victory for one side. We got something we want, Hawthorn got something they want, and everyone walks away happy. It's mature trading, not like the juvenile playground crap that Essendon, Collingwood etc regularly try to pull.

 

[SnowRoo]

Rumors of Hawks looking to offload 18 for 2 lower picks now the AFL are making pick for pick trades within 200 points.

15+something for 8

so ......... 38+40 for 18?

 

[Bunker Hunt]

Don't worry, he's a bloody good player, give him the opportunity and he will deliver, sorry to see him go.

People told us off for Higgins and Waite last year and they both had career best years. Unsurprisingly people don't learn and are now telling us off for Jed. I can't remember the last time we traded a first round pick so we must really bloody rate him to have done so. Very confident.

On another note: It's not like every trade has to be a brutal victory for one side. We got something we want, Hawthorn got something they want, and everyone walks away happy. It's mature trading, not like the juvenile playground crap that Essendon, Collingwood etc regularly try to pull.

he's the

 

[Spook]

He'll fight right in at North, our outside runners consist of Bastinac (who really is an inside mid type player), Gibson (Focke-Wolf Butcherbird), Nahas and occasionally Atley. Anderson, Garner and Turner will form a strong small forward/hf trio.

You may be surprised to hear that Anderson is actually more an inside player.

Sad to lose him but it understandable. It's a fair trade in a shallow draft. Good luck Jed.