Toast QF = Collingwood 60-53 Melbourne

[No SPIN]

I listened to Brenton Sanderson discuss our game on SEN this arvo. He spent five minutes talking about how good Melbourne are and how dominant their three stars were (true) and then immediately went on to say they are still a flag favourite in his eyes and are a chance to beat the Lions at the GABBA. Apparently they are getting a walkover against the Blues on Friday night. I think he said we started better and we were efficient before waxing lyrically about Melbourne for the rest of the segment.

Actually said in his preview on Thursday morning, that Melb forward line had the edge over our defence and accordingly tipped them to win.
Embarrassing really.

 

[No SPIN]

Entirely useless to determine who "should" have won the game. I also doubt it's nuanced enough to show who kicked better, except for set shots. There's too many variables in non set shots to assess their difficulty. Even set shots I'm not sure if they take enough into account. Left foot, right foot? Player capability? For most a shot outside 50 would be a challenge, someone like Tex Walker does it with ease, what value does league average have?

I don’t think it has much value. Putting it out as an "expected" or "corrected" score is definitely wrong. If it was just: easy/moderate/difficult shots missed/made I'd have less of an issue with it, but as with all subjective stats it's still not great.

I’m more than happy for Melb to lull themselves into a false sense of security thinking junk I50’s will win them the flag, and therefore not tweek their game plan.

 

[Visions]

According to SEN Goodwin told players that on a “corrected score” basis they win by 21 points.
Now I know there are services that make that adjustment for both teams on the day, but that suggests if you count our 4 missed shot inside 30, and add 20 points to our score then Melb would have needed to cover our 26 points and add 21 to win by that margin.
That total of 47 points is around 8 goals meaning they would have needed to kick 15 goals 3.
I can’t see it.

Could someone please post a link to a site showing the corrected scores for the game ?

Did Goodwin also show them the "mentally weak sh!ting yourself like a 5 year old fearing a monster under your bed when kicking for goal" corrected score?

 

[3rdMan]

Ironically when Dees did have a couple of weeks of good scoring they had shifted to scoring more from the back half. Started some to thinking that back half scoring can be better as it provides cleaner entries.

 

[sr36]

Entirely useless to determine who "should" have won the game. I also doubt it's nuanced enough to show who kicked better, except for set shots. There's too many variables in non set shots to assess their difficulty. Even set shots I'm not sure if they take enough into account. Left foot, right foot? Player capability? For most a shot outside 50 would be a challenge, someone like Tex Walker does it with ease, what value does league average have?

I don’t think it has much value. Putting it out as an "expected" or "corrected" score is definitely wrong. If it was just: easy/moderate/difficult shots missed/made I'd have less of an issue with it, but as with all subjective stats it's still not great.

I agree with you, except I do think it's an interesting stat that gives a general indication of who kicked for goal better, just as other stats give an indication of whose field kicking was better, or who was better around stoppage, better at intercepting, etc...None of them are nuanced enough to be particularly accurate indicators. However I think it's likely to be more accurate an indicator than most stats we're given

However, anyone trying to suggest that it's an indicator of who played better is missing the point that kicking the ball through the big sticks is actually a highly skilled and important part of the game. In fact there's a fair bit more luck in clearance stats than goal kicking stats.

 

[sr36]

Hodge is a number of things, articulate is not one of those.

I listen to him and despite the incredible knowledge he would have on the game, I just think: Who came up with the bright idea of paying Luke Hodge to talk?

 

[BuildEmUp]

And l am getting my tickets for the corrected score Collingwood v Sydney elimination final.

you mean collingwood adelaide?

 

[Anzacday]

you mean collingwood adelaide?

Think he’s referring to last year when we lost by a point.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

It’s not so much “expected score” as it is “expected score if all forwards in the game of AFL were of equal kicking ability”.

So give me Lockett over T Cloke, please.

 

[thebaldfacts]

The expected scores for Brisbane v Port as shown in the Herald Sun was 100 - 97.

Really shows how ridiculous the concept is. From 48 point defeat to 3 points.

 

[loki04]

Waking up in a prelim, knowing you also get to watch Melbourne go out in straight sets next week, is pretty sweet.

Lol I reckon Port are also a chance of going out in straight sets.

 

[loki04]

Campbell brown on sen saying Maynard gets off, finally some common sense

Adam Cooney also thinks he has no case to answer and disputes the careless classification.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Watching the replay for the 4th time…

I’ve ragged on Mihocek a bit this year due to how often he’s gone completely missing in games.

But credit where it’s due, it was great to finally see him learn from past occasions and shut May out of the game.

Wonder if he can take those learnings and apply them to:

• Aliir
• Taylor/Buckley
• Andrews
• Weitering

 

[Pie eyed]

According to SEN Goodwin told players that on a “corrected score” basis they win by 21 points.
Now I know there are services that make that adjustment for both teams on the day, but that suggests if you count our 4 missed shot inside 30, and add 20 points to our score then Melb would have needed to cover our 26 points and add 21 to win by that margin.
That total of 47 points is around 8 goals meaning they would have needed to kick 15 goals 3.
I can’t see it.

Could someone please post a link to a site showing the corrected scores for the game ?

Goodwin is sucking a very long knob with that view.
Pies kick the ones they normally would in the first quarter and it's game over.
Dees can kick all theirs after that and still lose.

 

[Pie eyed]

and the lame prick got the free when he took Adams legs!
*ing maggots.

 

[Kes1984]

So how many times has everyone else watched the replay?
Im at three I think. In addition to watching it live at the game.

Now I’m doing my homework for the prelim. Watching our games against Port and GWS

 

[unplugged]

So how many times has everyone else watched the replay?
Im at three I think. In addition to watching it live at the game.

Now I’m doing my homework for the prelim. Watching our games against Port and GWS

Just once at this stage.

Might go again I reckon!

The whole expected scores thing is hilarious. We clearly just looked to hang on in the last quarter. All year we've switched game style to suit the situation. If we weren't 4 goals up at 3/4 time there's nothing to say we let them have that many inside 50s. We would've been pushing to win.

 

[Kes1984]

Just once at this stage.

Might go again I reckon!

The whole expected scores thing is hilarious. We clearly just looked to hang on in the last quarter. All year we've switched game style to suit the situation. If we weren't 4 goals up at 3/4 time there's nothing to say we let them have that many inside 50s. We would've been pushing to win.

It gets better each viewing lol

What’s bizarre is how I’d never heard of expected scores until this game lol

 

[Pie eyed]

Just once at this stage.

Might go again I reckon!

The whole expected scores thing is hilarious. We clearly just looked to hang on in the last quarter. All year we've switched game style to suit the situation. If we weren't 4 goals up at 3/4 time there's nothing to say we let them have that many inside 50s. We would've been pushing to win.

Melbourne were holding back, not wanting to show their best.

It's obvious.
They knew they are flag favourites because "corrected score" wins the flag right?

 

[Moore of the Same]

I prayed at St.Peter’s Basilica for Maynard to get off, Naicos’ knee & Pies premiership.

The big man said he had it all covered.

I'll assume this is the "big man" you were referring to.

 

[Chameleon75]

Goodwin was just jonesing, cut him some slack

 

[Chameleon75]

View attachment 1799431
I'll assume this is the "big man" you were referring to.

fancy a bit of Bunga Bunga

 

[JuniorB]

View attachment 1799431
I'll assume this is the "big man" you were referring to.

Or maybe this one!

 

[Pie eyed]

The expected scores for Brisbane v Port as shown in the Herald Sun was 100 - 97.

Really shows how ridiculous the concept is. From 48 point defeat to 3 points.

14 degrees, feels like 3 degrees.

Just another way to make something obvious and actually factual a matter of opinion.

 

[Brad Goodman]

I listen to him and despite the incredible knowledge he would have on the game, I just think: Who came up with the bright idea of paying Luke Hodge to talk?

It annoys that they haven’t sent him for elocution lessons, purely so he’ll start pronouncing the g on the end words like kickin’, handballin’ and markin’