The Lesser Key of Hinkley (aka the 2018 Statistical Data Thread)

[TheFVK]

We have shown a propensity in previous years for going on runs where our midfield gets utterly walloped.

This is the major thing which has changed for me now we have Rockliff, he's used to performing when he's up against it so the gap between his best and worst is minimal.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Numbers mean zip -it's the immediate result or outcome from those mid field clearances thast count.. Let's quote the number of goals kicked as the immediate result of those clearances.

If 'we' go purely by numbers then check the number of entries into the 'inside 50s - Port 64 - Carlton 38. Clearances Port 40 - Carlton 35. Using stats alone, Port should have belted Carlton but scraped in which in itself was an adequate result - nothing of note.

Yep, Port have won 10 games but the centre clearances are still a serious problem if there is to be a serious challenge for the GF.

Now do the same analysis for the Melbourne game

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Rexie J]

Thank you that's exactly my point. Stats mean zip - it's the result/outcome that matter. A hack from a centre bounce may be counted as a clearance for the stat sheets but how effective was it? Let's look at the effectiveness, not the 'tick' on a computer.

Re Melbourne stats on their own shows Melbourne should have won but didn't - Port were more effective, so it's the result of 'stats' that count, not purely the numbers.

 

[NEGAN]

Numbers mean zip -it's the immediate result or outcome from those mid field clearances thast count.. Let's quote the number of goals kicked as the immediate result of those clearances.

If 'we' go purely by numbers then check the number of entries into the 'inside 50s - Port 64 - Carlton 38. Clearances Port 40 - Carlton 35. Using stats alone, Port should have belted Carlton but scraped in which in itself was an adequate result - nothing of note.

Yep, Port have won 10 games but the centre clearances are still a serious problem if there is to be a serious challenge for the GF.

I think your gripe is more with our fwd structure and goal kicking efficiency which is total arse.

Without looking at the stats, the number of oof and not making the distance seems diabolical compared to the numbers we pump around the ground. There isn't a player where I feel is regulation goal since Sarge retired.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Numbers mean zip -it's the immediate result or outcome from those mid field clearances thast count.. Let's quote the number of goals kicked as the immediate result of those clearances.

If 'we' go purely by numbers then check the number of entries into the 'inside 50s - Port 64 - Carlton 38. Clearances Port 40 - Carlton 35. Using stats alone, Port should have belted Carlton but scraped in which in itself was an adequate result - nothing of note.

Yep, Port have won 10 games but the centre clearances are still a serious problem if there is to be a serious challenge for the GF.

I think that points to an underperforming forward line. Which it probably is at the moment

 

[Rexie J]

I think your gripe is more with our fwd structure and goal kicking efficiency which is total arse.

Without looking at the stats, the number of oof and not making the distance seems diabolical compared to the numbers we pump around the ground. There isn't a player where I feel is regulation goal since Sarge retired.

Good reasoning there mate, I reckon you are correct. Frankly, I think the use of stats has become overstated. Efficiency is the key word I've been fumbling around with - thank you.

Stats do not win games - effective use of the footy will win most, if not all games.

A good post

 

[El_Scorcho]

If Port has so many talented 'bulls' playing in the centre alongside such elite talents as Chad and Robbie, then why are they being belted so often.

Oh and chuck in a pretty handy ruckman.

We are rarely belted and have handed out a few absolutely beltings.

Most of our really poor midfield performances happened early in the year, when we had Rockliff injured or out and SPP and Ryder out, and Chad playing predominantly forward.

Overall since we've gotten the balance right we've been great. The Melbourne game was an exception because Gawn played a blinder and killed Ryder.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Numbers mean zip -it's the immediate result or outcome from those mid field clearances thast count.. Let's quote the number of goals kicked as the immediate result of those clearances.

If 'we' go purely by numbers then check the number of entries into the 'inside 50s - Port 64 - Carlton 38. Clearances Port 40 - Carlton 35. Using stats alone, Port should have belted Carlton but scraped in which in itself was an adequate result - nothing of note.

Yep, Port have won 10 games but the centre clearances are still a serious problem if there is to be a serious challenge for the GF.

And the week before we won despite being hammered in the inside 50 count.

I'm not sure what you mean by belted in the midfield? We are one of the top clearance sides in the comp. We have won 10 out of 14 games. Which metrics do you want to use? We aren't winning by as much as you would like?

Your initial assertion was you can't understand why our midfield is belted so often. That does not equate to forward line efficiency. The key midfield indicators suggest the midfield is not getting belted.

What is the average score against us the past 7 weeks or so while we have been on a roll? The midfield can be seen as just as important in supporting the defence as feeding the forward line.

The numbers do mean something.

 

[*PAF]

Hate it when you can see both point of views as it usually ends up with receiving a belting from both sides of the debate.

Stats have become an industry of their own and yes they are mostly meaningless.

Teams that play stoppage type games will have the most stoppages. Repeat inside 50 count as many rather than one attack where the ball is bouncing around.
A contested mark varies between minute amounts of pressure and Capper type marks.
Double counting where something counts towards more than one stat alone and both get quoted as if they are independent.

Could go on and on, however our midfield has not been belted since Rockliff got fit plus SPP and Wingard stepped up.

Our forwards aren't that bad either. People in here want to see lots of leading marks by KPFs but you will keep being disappointed whilst that is not a big part of our game plan.
As a minor aside, we arent the only team that plays that way, love it or not one could say that is the latestt trend. Portz the trendsetters

 

[Rexie J]

And the week before we won despite being hammered in the inside 50 count.

I'm not sure what you mean by belted in the midfield? We are one of the top clearance sides in the comp. We have won 10 out of 14 games. Which metrics do you want to use? We aren't winning by as much as you would like?

Your initial assertion was you can't understand why our midfield is belted so often. That does not equate to forward line efficiency. The key midfield indicators suggest the midfield is not getting belted.

What is the average score against us the past 7 weeks or so while we have been on a roll? The midfield can be seen as just as important in supporting the defence as feeding the forward line.

The numbers do mean something.

OK, accepted 'belted' is an over statement. All I was was trying to say is with the talent available in the midfield, Port's clearances should be more effective, with the emphasis on effective.

Absolutely no disputing the midfield has been outstanding in defence. Ollie, Rocky and SPP are brilliant around the ground. Rocky reminding me a little of Greg Williams. Not quick by any means but with wonderful ability to find space, fire out an effective handball or kick.

More than pleased with the wins, simply believe with the talent available Port must do better.

 

[elpirate]

I reckon we are a season away from pure competition domination TBH.

Would be great to jag something this year though.

It's there for the taking

 

[*PAF]

I reckon we are a season away from pure competition domination TBH.

Would be great to jag something this year though.

It's there for the taking

IMO we are cloaer than that.
We are one everything clicks moment from being the dominant team.

Will it happen? That is the question.
Rexie J is correct in saying that with the talent we have we could be doing better than we are.

For mine we either need another overlapping player or someone to step up and play the role they have been doing plus add a bit more towards linking type plays. Is that asking too much from pmayers that are already busting their arses week in week out? Dunno, it could be.

 

[elpirate]

IMO we are cloaer than that.
We are one everything clicks moment from being the dominant team.

Will it happen? That is the question.
Rexie J is correct in saying that with the talent we have we could be doing better than we are.

For mine we either need another overlapping player or someone to step up and play the role they have been doing plus add a bit more towards linking type plays. Is that asking too much from pmayers that are already busting their arses week in week out? Dunno, it could be.

Agree but we don't have that player and our efficiency going forward is still sub standard.

Hence, 1 season away.

 

[FishingRick04]

1 season away is a good call but this season is open for us now.

Our defence another year on will be amazing, midfield great as it’s younger than people recognise, I would like to churn 1 older Ebert type for a young fast paced jet, the forward line has potential too.

 

[Janus]

Not one season away. Not one player away.

“Let go of your conscious self...and act on instinct.”

That’s what is missing. When you don’t see players having to point to each other where to stand - which means they are thinking consciously and not instinctively - that’s when you’ll know we are going to * s**t up.

And it’s going to happen by the end of the year.

When Hardwick let go of the reins and let his players basically coach themselves, it was because he’d done all he could in terms of teaching them what he wanted them to do. That’s the level we need to get to. Where everyone knows their role so instinctively that they can tell a joke before the third quarter and have a laugh because they know what is required to get the job done.

Hinkley said at the start of the season that we are 95% there. By the time finals roll around, we will be 100%.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Not one season away. Not one player away.

“Let go of your conscious self...and act on instinct.”

That’s what is missing. When you don’t see players having to point to each other where to stand - which means they are thinking consciously and not instinctively - that’s when you’ll know we are going to **** s**t up.

And it’s going to happen by the end of the year.

When Hardwick let go of the reins and let his players basically coach themselves, it was because he’d done all he could in terms of teaching them what he wanted them to do. That’s the level we need to get to. Where everyone knows their role so instinctively that they can tell a joke before the third quarter and have a laugh because they know what is required to get the job done.

Hinkley said at the start of the season that we are 95% there. By the time finals roll around, we will be 100%.

Under Hinkley we have gone from

Conscious incompetence to conscious competence

Now we need go do to unconscious competence.

It needs to become instinctive, automatic. Like driving a car

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Janus]

Under Hinkley we have gone from

Conscious incompetence to conscious competence

Now we need go do to unconscious competence.

It needs to become instinctive, automatic. Like driving a car

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

Defence should be like breathing. No thought given - it just happens automatically.

Offence should be like driving a race car. Needs some thought and attention paid so you don’t crash but the more experience you have the faster you can go once you know the various tracks.

 

[philreich]

IMO we are cloaer than that.
We are one everything clicks moment from being the dominant team.

Will it happen? That is the question.
Rexie J is correct in saying that with the talent we have we could be doing better than we are.

For mine we either need another overlapping player or someone to step up and play the role they have been doing plus add a bit more towards linking type plays. Is that asking too much from pmayers that are already busting their arses week in week out? Dunno, it could be.

The focus for Port has to be 100% on playing our best footy in September. We've seen glimpses of champagne football from time to time - if our best becomes the norm during the finals, then heaven help the opposition!!!!

 

[Ford Fairlane]

OK, accepted 'belted' is an over statement. All I was was trying to say is with the talent available in the midfield, Port's clearances should be more effective, with the emphasis on effective.

Absolutely no disputing the midfield has been outstanding in defence. Ollie, Rocky and SPP are brilliant around the ground. Rocky reminding me a little of Greg Williams. Not quick by any means but with wonderful ability to find space, fire out an effective handball or kick.

More than pleased with the wins, simply believe with the talent available Port must do better.

I think we all agree there is an issue with inside 50 conversion to goals. In boxing parlance we are more like the heavy hitter who renders you senseless with flurries of blows rather than the precision puncher who cuts you to pieces with accurate jabs.

Ken has certainly talked about the transition from defence to attack, so the coaches are aware of that issue. Our young defence is very good at holding teams to low scores with the help of our team defence strategy but probably not as confident in taking the game on. The loss of Hartlett and Broadbent, along with Jasper's injury and form concerns, has hurt us in that space. Bonner tends to go into his shell if he gets caught early and doesn't always go for the best option.

We suffer too from not having a genuine key forward. Charlie is a great target but his forward craft is not great and he drops a lot of marks. Who could have foreseen Todd Marshall's travails this year and understandably he has been a shadow of the player we know he can be. I know we all want him to do well but he has been a passenger in the side since returning. Jack Watts is more your giant flanker, Chad Wingard has been spending much more time on ball recently, Robbie Gray creates goals out of magic, Sam Gray works up and down the ground. Lindsay Thomas is probably the only genuine consistent forward in the side.

The of course you have the coach killing skill errors, like Westhoff's inability to kick a set shot goal, Sam Gray and Tom Rockliff can't kick over a jam jar, Boak and Charlie are notoriously unreliable set shots too. I don't think we have a player I would trust with a simple set shot from outside 40m and couple from within 20. Maybe Robbie Gray, he seems to have overcome some yips.

So definitely we could be better. But it's not like the coaches don't know it and I'm sure they are working towards it. We are every chance to be a top 4 side this year, we have put our destiny in our own hands and are playing tough defensive football that isn't far off finding a killer goal scoring edge.

 

[Port01]

The of course you have the coach killing skill errors, like Westhoff's inability to kick a set shot goal, Sam Gray and Tom Rockliff can't kick over a jam jar, Boak and Charlie are notoriously unreliable set shots too. I don't think we have a player I would trust with a simple set shot from outside 40m and couple from within 20. Maybe Robbie Gray, he seems to have overcome some yips.

Shits me when you have Dixon spraying one from the 50m line and not really going back and kicking through the ball and 60 seconds later a little bloke like Garlett kicks through post high from the same position.

I still think the whole time thing gets to Dixon, he doesnt go back get a decent run up and kick through the ball from outside 50. He used to get the distance easily, now he just chips off a couple of steps. Maybe he can't see the goals from 60.

 

[elpirate]

Not one season away. Not one player away.

“Let go of your conscious self...and act on instinct.”

That’s what is missing. When you don’t see players having to point to each other where to stand - which means they are thinking consciously and not instinctively - that’s when you’ll know we are going to **** s**t up.

And it’s going to happen by the end of the year.

When Hardwick let go of the reins and let his players basically coach themselves, it was because he’d done all he could in terms of teaching them what he wanted them to do. That’s the level we need to get to. Where everyone knows their role so instinctively that they can tell a joke before the third quarter and have a laugh because they know what is required to get the job done.

Hinkley said at the start of the season that we are 95% there. By the time finals roll around, we will be 100%.

Totally hope you are right but you have declared that we would "arrive" on at least 3 occasions this season and we still have not.

I reckon this time next year with the additional experience and gelling of players is when we will be the competition leaders and leaving many in awe.

Love your faith though Janus!

 

[Janus]

I think we all agree there is an issue with inside 50 conversion to goals. In boxing parlance we are more like the heavy hitter who renders you senseless with flurries of blows rather than the precision puncher who cuts you to pieces with accurate jabs.

Ken has certainly talked about the transition from defence to attack, so the coaches are aware of that issue. Our young defence is very good at holding teams to low scores with the help of our team defence strategy but probably not as confident in taking the game on. The loss of Hartlett and Broadbent, along with Jasper's injury and form concerns, has hurt us in that space. Bonner tends to go into his shell if he gets caught early and doesn't always go for the best option.

We suffer too from not having a genuine key forward. Charlie is a great target but his forward craft is not great and he drops a lot of marks. Who could have foreseen Todd Marshall's travails this year and understandably he has been a shadow of the player we know he can be. I know we all want him to do well but he has been a passenger in the side since returning. Jack Watts is more your giant flanker, Chad Wingard has been spending much more time on ball recently, Robbie Gray creates goals out of magic, Sam Gray works up and down the ground. Lindsay Thomas is probably the only genuine consistent forward in the side.

The of course you have the coach killing skill errors, like Westhoff's inability to kick a set shot goal, Sam Gray and Tom Rockliff can't kick over a jam jar, Boak and Charlie are notoriously unreliable set shots too. I don't think we have a player I would trust with a simple set shot from outside 40m and couple from within 20. Maybe Robbie Gray, he seems to have overcome some yips.

So definitely we could be better. But it's not like the coaches don't know it and I'm sure they are working towards it. We are every chance to be a top 4 side this year, we have put our destiny in our own hands and are playing tough defensive football that isn't far off finding a killer goal scoring edge.

In boxing parlance that would be a swarmer (Mike Tyson) vs an out-boxer (Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali)

Richmond is a swarmer. Hawthorn 2013-2015 was an out-boxer.

What we are trying to be is a boxer-puncher (Sugar Ray Robinson - pound for pound the greatest fighter of all time)...which combines both styles and can adjust on the fly depending on what the opppsition throws up at us.

 

[OneGreatClub]

I reckon we are a season away from pure competition domination TBH.

Would be great to jag something this year though.

It's there for the taking

Yes and before the rules are changed to faaaark us up

 

[OneGreatClub]

Shits me when you have Dixon spraying one from the 50m line and not really going back and kicking through the ball and 60 seconds later a little bloke like Garlett kicks through post high from the same position.

I still think the whole time thing gets to Dixon, he doesnt go back get a decent run up and kick through the ball from outside 50. He used to get the distance easily, now he just chips off a couple of steps. Maybe he can't see the goals from 60.

Yes he can’t see the goals. We need him up closer

 

[GremioPower]

We are rarely belted and have handed out a few absolutely beltings.

Most of our really poor midfield performances happened early in the year, when we had Rockliff injured or out and SPP and Ryder out, and Chad playing predominantly forward.

Overall since we've gotten the balance right we've been great. The Melbourne game was an exception because Gawn played a blinder and killed Ryder.

Yes he can’t see the goals. We need him up closer

Put someone behind the mark to give him a reference: "kick over him, and it is a goal."