Opinion Which list would you want? Richmond, Carlton, Geelong

Which team?

  • Carlton

    Votes: 81 35.5%
  • Geelong

    Votes: 88 38.6%
  • Richmond

    Votes: 59 25.9%

  • Total voters
    228

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It’s still hurting/gutting two drafts, the cheapest way to get talent is the draft, it’s where basically 95% of contending lists are built from. Specifically the draft is by far the cheapest way to get top end talent.

Taranto was a fair trade, Prestia was a fair trade, I think the price you’re going to end up paying is either way over or a disaster depending on where you finish.

I didn’t realise you were so big into Himmelberg but it doesn’t bother me anyway because I don’t really understand why people rate him so highly, he’s another solid b-grade player.
Which drafts have been gutted? It’s a pretty simple question …
Taranto cost our first pick last year and our Callum Jones pick with a swap of picks…
This draft we are missing our first rnd pick… hardly gutted.
 
Convinced yourself?

Fact is it has the worst under 22 talent in the game.

It’s this blind optimism of the list that will see the Tigers mid table at best for a very, very long time. And with Tassie coming in……

Worst thing about us getting stuck mid table.....your club seems to copy everything we do. Would rob us of the pleasing spectacle of the Roneo FC finding new ways to lose Grand Finals. :)
 

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The Richmond list currently has:

- 10 Premiership players under 30yo(down to as young as 23yo)

- 2 further GWS Grand Final players 25, 26yo

- 10 first round picks and 10 second round picks plus Baker 25, Graham 25, Short 27.

- A number of promising players who do not fit any of the above categories in M Rioli Jnr, Ryan, Ralphsmith, Mansell, Young.

Below is a link to Hawk's list for 2017 after they got rid of S Mitchell & Lewis. Like Richmond's current list there was still plenty of talent there. But in their next 3 seasons they won 10.5, 15 and 11 home and away games. So they did not actually fall off a cliff. Their list was actually very decent at that time, and they had a healthy spread of highish draft picks across their list. But they wanted a flag or nothing. So Birchall, the older Hodge, Smith, Ceglar, Shiels, Gunston, Duryea, Tom Mitchell, O'Meara, Tim O'Brien, Howe, Burton, Pittonet have been traded or given away all to end up playing with other clubs. Frawley increasingly struggled with injury. Rioli was lost to the game in his prime. Vickery, Schoenmakers, Langford, O'Rourke, Hartung, Lovell all barely fired another shot or were just no good. 5 of that 6 were originally top 25 draft picks.

They seemed to switch to a policy of taking salary dumps like Patton and Scully. They traded for Impey, who has had a lot of injuries, Wingard, Frost, Phillips, Max Lynch, Cooper Stephens and got Amon as a Free Agent after 2017.

Such that 6 off seasons later all they have remaining of value on the list from the 2017 list is: Breust, Sicily, Hardwick, Lewis, Morrison, Nash. 6 players.

They had started taking wrong turns from 2017 by jettisoning Sam Mitchell and Lewis. They had also traded/free agented quite a lot of players during their Premiership years, and in 2017 their list contained 12 players that had played at other clubs. Richmond's current list has just 6 of those.

Why did Hawthorn plummet from 2020 onwards? Ultimately, they chose to, in order to get draft picks for a rebuild. Initially, they had a series of things go wrong, poor trades, premature retirements, injuries. There is absolutely nothing to say any of this will be true for Richmond, or any other club. It requires a lot to go wrong.

So far Richmond, since their first flag, have brought in just 3 players from other clubs in trades or as free agents. Lynch, Taranto, Hopper, all high quality players, all to fill obvious needs. Richmond have taken no salary dumps. Only let 2 other players in the door who had played for other clubs, Parker and Mav Weller. The list has been kept stable. Older players have not been forced out. And also unlike Hawthorn, Richmond have shown no sign at all so far of chopping and changing from one strategy to another then another. So it beats me why people think Richmond are following the Hawks' path. The whole thing looks completely different bar the 3 flags in short order then needing to obviously transition the best 22.




In 2017, Hawthorn had the following players younger than 30yo(14 Premiership players under 30):

29 yo Birchall rd pick 14

28 Frawley pick 12 Isaac Smith pick 19 Stratton

27 McEvoy pick 9 Rioli pick 12 Whitecross pick 29

26 Vickery pick 8 Schoenmakers pick 16 Breust, Ceglar

25 Shiels pick 34 Gunston pick 29 Duryea

24 Langford

23 Tom Mitchell pick 21 O'Meara pre-draft pick equivalent to a top 5 pick Tim O'Brien 28 Jono O'Rourke pick 2

22 Hartung pick 24 Sicily

21 Howe pick 31

20 Burton pick 19 Hardwick pick 44 Pittonet

19 Lovell pick 22

18 Mitch Lewis, Harry Morrison, Nash
Good in depth analysis. I don't see Richmond in any way similar to Hawks at this juncture.

What's tigers most compelling player needs at the moment? Is it key backs?
 
What will be interesting is how a RFA will look at Richmond without Hardwick there. I think there’s little doubt players who may be in demand are influenced by the coach. If Hardwick had left this time last year, would Taranto and Hopper still have had a preference for Richmond. Maybe the 7 yr deal helped.
These guys get professional advice.

Of course they would have considered that Hardwick might not be there much longer after 13 years at the helm.

They absolutely certainly wouldn't have expected him to be there for the entire seven years.

What actually happened was they got offered massive long deals AND the the Tigers were able to satisfy GWS with high value draft currency.

They are the two main factors.

Then location third.

People really over estimate the sentiment.

Just because fans are sentimental doesn't mean players are.
 
These guys get professional advice.

Of course they would have considered that Hardwick might not be there much longer after 13 years at the helm.

They absolutely certainly wouldn't have expected him to be there for the entire seven years.

What actually happened was they got offered massive line deals AND the the Tigers were able to satisfy GWS with draft currency.

They are the two main factors.

Then location third.

People really over estimate the sentiment.

Just because fans are sentimental doesn't mean players are.
The one I always find amusing is "he used to barrack for us as a kid!"
 
Good in depth analysis. I don't see Richmond in any way similar to Hawks at this juncture.

What's tigers most compelling player needs at the moment? Is it key backs?

Key backs fine with Balta Young Gibcus on the list. Key forwards the cupboard is totally bare with only a couple of very long shots behind Lynch and the soon to retire Riewoldt. We will need another quality ball using mid as well, not easy to find or develop.
 
Key backs fine with Balta Young Gibcus on the list. Key forwards the cupboard is totally bare with only a couple of very long shots behind Lynch and the soon to retire Riewoldt. We will need another quality ball using mid as well, not easy to find or develop.
Lynch though is elite and prob has a good few years left. You can get by with one dominant forward imo
 
My other favourite is "he's best mates with Joe Blogs from the under 18s days".

Players are trained by professional media coaches to tell the fans what they want to hear.

I came to your club because I'm chasing team success .
And personal opportunity
I imagine for some players they want some sort of guarantee that their is a clear role for them
 
Think I'd take Geelong because the only guys that they will struggle to replace are Dangerfield and Hawkins but they should release enough salary cap to be able to find players out of contract or free agents. Richmond are about two steps from a 500 metre cliff and by the time Carlton can draft any depth McKay and Curnow will be in their 30's.

So cheap house beats paper bags on this occasion.

McKay and Curnow are 26. We probably have 6 years if not longer to build something around them. Hawkins is still playing great football at 35. I reckon Cameron will be too. 6 years could be 8 or 9 if we’re lucky.
 

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Geelong. Went through a soft rebuild this year. Still sitting in the 8 and have brought in some good talent (Henry, Bruhn, Bowes, Pick 7). Destination club so they will no doubt attract more along the way.
 
McKay and Curnow are 26. We probably have 6 years if not longer to build something around them. Hawkins is still playing great football at 35. I reckon Cameron will be too. 6 years could be 8 or 9 if we’re lucky.
Are you still building?? I'd give it one more year and if the Blues aren't playing finals footy, I think only Curnow will be safe.
 
Are you still building?? I'd give it one more year and if the Blues aren't playing finals footy, I think only Curnow will be safe.

Imo all list management decisions should be based around Charlie and Harry’s primes, as they are our key pieces and points of difference. As above I’d say they have 5-9 years of great footy left.

As they are now both entering their primes and finally playing together I would consider this a year wasted so far.

To answer your question we are done building the core as should be the focus with any hard rebuild. It is time to find role players and depth and a game plan that works with it all.
 
Carltons List is the best on paper, guns on every line but they continue to under perform as the game isnt played on paper.
Carlton's list us somewhere between the 9th and 12th best, which is about where they will finish again this year.

I wish people would look beyond the top 5 in a sport where circa 35 players are used throughout the season, and 23 players take to the field for any specific game...
 
Which list would I want for what though? Winning a flag now I still think Carlton are in win now mode and really should be a finals, if not flag contender this/next year.

Their issue is that their top liners are very good when not injured but their bottom 10 are about as weak as the league gets. Richmond were a bit like that in 2016 prior to their successful era and through a mixture of draft/free agency and prudent trades managed to find blokes to lift that bottom such as Castanga, Houli, Lambert (who turned into a star), Broad (who has become a very good player), Grigg, Ellis et al. Before then we had blokes like Anthony Miles, Sam Lloyd, Shaun Hampson, Taylor Hunt and Ben Griffiths playing regular games....

I reckon with a decent coach (I don't rate Voss) and a good offseason they could very quickly contend for the next 3-5 years if they manage to find 3-5 quality players through draft/free agency etc. and bring the quality of the base up. They don't have too many retirees forthcoming that are in their best 10 and so I think they have significantly more short term potential.

From there, Richmond and Geelong look pretty similar to me. Both have lost and will further lose the core of their successful sides over the next 3-5 years. Richmond with Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Grimes and Lynch. Geelong with Hawkins, Smith, Danger, Tuohy, Duncan, Stanley and Blicavs.

Both Richmond and Geelong will need to hit the draft through coming years, and I think some posters are a bit histrionic with the whole 'Richmond traded first round picks' as they probably don't recognise that getting Hopper and Taranto very much helps the demographic of our list well into the next decade where we're lacking blokes in the 22-28 bracket and will be further requiring those to not be completely uncompetitive through a rebuild.

Ultimately whichever bounces back to the top of the ladder sooner will rely on hitting draft picks over multiple drafts in the next 5 years, irrespective of where they are, and finding players through other means such as rookie list, FA, RFA and mid season draft which no one can really predict the future on.
 
Carlton's list us somewhere between the 9th and 12th best, which is about where they will finish again this year.

I wish people would look beyond the top 5 in a sport where circa 35 players are used throughout the season, and 23 players take to the field for any specific game...

Well that's condescending haha
Their list on paper looks better than the Pies IMO, the pies have a crap fwd line on paper but Fly has them flying.
 
Which drafts have been gutted? It’s a pretty simple question …
Taranto cost our first pick last year and our Callum Jones pick with a swap of picks…
This draft we are missing our first rnd pick… hardly gutted.
Mate, I literally answered your question straight away, last years and this years. It’s a pretty simple answer. The first round pick is over 50% of a drafts worth and you can use whatever mental gymnastics you want but unless my current inebriated state means I can’t read wikipedia your first pick last year was pick 49.

So if you want to be stubborn and say this years draft hand is fine (it’s like currently the 2nd worst hand in the AFL after Port), if pick 49 doesn’t mean gutted then all the power to you I guess.

We’ve had a couple of dynasty teams over the last 25 years that have won several flags in close succession. Maybe you’re right and yours will be the one that will buck the trend. We’ll find out in the next 3-4 years
 
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