Strategy Pre and post bye differences by the numbers

[catempire]

Some really telling numbers in here about what’s not working.



The more interesting question with an unknown answer is ‘why’?

Tactics change?
Opposition changing the way they play us?
Individual players out of form?
Training load differences?
Team balance changes?
Motivation?

Probably some of all of these. Which might make it that much harder to turn it around.

 

[GeelongFTW]

Heavy Training Load.

 

[goyoucatters]

Heavy Training Load.

It would clearly be better news for us if this was a significant part of the answer.

Does the relative level of 'managed fatigue' for the players then manifest itself in the team prioritising tempo footy when they're in possession, making us look slower and far less proactive? And also less capable of playing an effective (and aggressive) zone when we don't have the ball?

For mine, we were embarrassed for both system and energy by the Hawks in the weekend. While the glaring deficiency in these areas could be at least partially explained by the club smashing the playing group between games at the moment, the possibility of us just dropping off (and simultaneously being 'worked out') is also very real.

Not sure that these next couple of games (given the opponents and the venues involved) will tell us much at all either. Although I'm hoping the injection of a couple of 'fresh' players might help to lift the group.

All in all, the comparison of how we look now with the sharpness and synergy that was operating across the group earlier in the season is very stark and somewhat disturbing. So here's hoping for a turnaround in our overall performance levels sooner rather than later, irrespective of any HTL or other explanation.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Heavy Training Load.

I thought this without being able to confirm it. Have you heard such from anyone down at the club??

 

[RegHickeyStand]

If its a heavy training load thing, I'm glad they finally got the timing right.

In recent seasons we seemed to have the heavy training load throughout Sept

 

[fpm84]

Intensity and tackling pressure is something that can be switched on.

Almost every week you’ll see a team play with a four quarter ferocity that they haven’t in previous weeks. Often it’s because they’re under pressure externally or they have another motivating factor to perform (new coach, finals on the line etc).

We pretty much brought the pressure every week before the bye. The win loss record attests to how successful it was.

I don’t think any team has ever sustained that kind of pressure for an entire season plus finals and I think it’s natural for that pressure to drop off when a) the team has a great ladder position, b) it’s cold in winter when historically top 2 teams have form fluctuations and c) we are clearly experimenting with a few things on the field.

I think our current problems come back to the switch not being flicked. Up the pressure across the field and Hawthorn don’t take uncontested marks inside 50 all day for example.

All this said, I’ll be worried if we don’t play at least one or two dominant quarters v Sydney...

 

[RegHickeyStand]

Players dropping off are mosty are the younger ones, or players who are just coming in to the team, like Rohan. Not including Hawkins as he is being starved of opportunity. Selwood we know is carrying injury.

As for the opposition figuring us out - how? I do not see any magical tactics by opposition teams to counter our "tricks". Only very lacklustre efforts by our players.

 

[GeelongFTW]

I thought this without being able to confirm it. Have you heard such from anyone down at the club??

nah im just talking s**t lol.

 

[Cataholic]

nah im just talking s**t lol.

And that's the problem with the HTL theory.

Too easy and convenient.

Would make a world of difference if the club confirmed it, but they'll never do that.

Until then it's a vague, optimistic hope on which to hang our hats.

 

[catempire]

Intensity and tackling pressure is something that can be switched on.

Almost every week you’ll see a team play with a four quarter ferocity that they haven’t in previous weeks. Often it’s because they’re under pressure externally or they have another motivating factor to perform (new coach, finals on the line etc).

We pretty much brought the pressure every week before the bye. The win loss record attests to how successful it was.

I don’t think any team has ever sustained that kind of pressure for an entire season plus finals and I think it’s natural for that pressure to drop off when a) the team has a great ladder position, b) it’s cold in winter when historically top 2 teams have form fluctuations and c) we are clearly experimenting with a few things on the field.

I think our current problems come back to the switch not being flicked. Up the pressure across the field and Hawthorn don’t take uncontested marks inside 50 all day for example.

All this said, I’ll be worried if we don’t play at least one or two dominant quarters v Sydney...

I thought this sounded interesting so I looked into it.

On pressure, Champion Data records a measure each game for ‘pressure’ for each team. It’s usually between about 170 and 210 ‘points’ per game. In our wins we average 1 point less than the opposition 189-188 (so virtually nothing). In our losses, however, we average 5 points lower than our opposition (189-184). Most strikingly, however, our past three games have been -15, -12 and -10. Our pressure was 174-189 against the Bulldogs, 199-211 against St Kilda and 178-188 against Hawthorn. So there certainly seems to be some support for a view that our pressure has dropped off in recent weeks. Interestingly, it was 200-193 versus Port post-bye so kind of skewers any theory that we didn’t ‘show up’ against Port.

On tackling, the story is somewhat similar. In our wins we average 2 fewer tackles than the opposition (67-69). However in our losses we average 7 fewer (69-62). Again, there has been a worrying trend in recent weeks with tackling differential being -10 against the Bulldogs, -11 against St Kilda and -8 against Hawthorn. There are some oddities in the tallies throughout the season though. We were -28 against Richmond but won by 57 points. And were -18 against Adelaide earlier in the season but won by 24.

The best correlation though clearly comes in the form of contested possessions. We win 100% of the games where we win the contested possession count. In wins we average 18 more than the opposition and in losses we average -16.

There’s a fairly strong narrative through all of this about effort, IMO.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

And that's the problem with the HTL theory.

Too easy and convenient.

Would make a world of difference if the club confirmed it, but they'll never do that.

Until then it's a vague, optimistic hope on which to hang our hats.

Agree with that. The closest I have heard to "proof" came on the weekend in the pre-game against Hawthorn:

I know for a fact the last month they've had a heavy training block, so you can understand they haven't been at their best on the weekends; just priming them up for September.

How could Brown know this for a fact? I have no idea.

 

[Cataholic]

Agree with that. The closest I have heard to "proof" came on the weekend in the pre-game against Hawthorn:




How could Brown know this for a fact? I have no idea.

Me either, unless he has mates within the GFC?

Look, I want to believe it, I really do, but I'm aware just how deceiving mirages can be.

 

[GeelongFTW]

Has any past player said anything about an HTL when they were playing in a top 2-4 team?

 

[Max Milburn]

Agree with that. The closest I have heard to "proof" came on the weekend in the pre-game against Hawthorn:




How could Brown know this for a fact? I have no idea.

Lappin?

 

[Turbocat]

I thought this sounded interesting so I looked into it.

On pressure, Champion Data records a measure each game for ‘pressure’ for each team. It’s usually between about 170 and 210 ‘points’ per game. In our wins we average 1 point less than the opposition 189-188 (so virtually nothing). In our losses, however, we average 5 points lower than our opposition (189-184). Most strikingly, however, our past three games have been -15, -12 and -10. Our pressure was 174-189 against the Bulldogs, 199-211 against St Kilda and 178-188 against Hawthorn. So there certainly seems to be some support for a view that our pressure has dropped off in recent weeks. Interestingly, it was 200-193 versus Port post-bye so kind of skewers any theory that we didn’t ‘show up’ against Port.

On tackling, the story is somewhat similar. In our wins we average 2 fewer tackles than the opposition (67-69). However in our losses we average 7 fewer (69-62). Again, there has been a worrying trend in recent weeks with tackling differential being -10 against the Bulldogs, -11 against St Kilda and -8 against Hawthorn. There are some oddities in the tallies throughout the season though. We were -28 against Richmond but won by 57 points. And were -18 against Adelaide earlier in the season but won by 24.

The best correlation though clearly comes in the form of contested possessions. We win 100% of the games where we win the contested possession count. In wins we average 18 more than the opposition and in losses we average -16.

There’s a fairly strong narrative through all of this about effort, IMO.

That sound like a KPI to me ... and a worrying one for the future. Future trades and drafting best address that we have this covered.. I think our best mids are like Jackson Brown or close to it ... losing Kelly then means we lose more CP's

Id like to know time in possession and the metres gained for that time.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Me either, unless he has mates within the GFC?

Look, I want to believe it, I really do, but I'm aware just how deceiving mirages can be.

Yep, I'm sure with his mates in footy and the media that he would have his finger a lot closer to the pulse than I do/can, but I'm still quite skeptical.

It's an easy throwaway line for a commentator and, as you say, a very convenient excuse for supporters to explain why their team is playing poorly.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Lappin?

Good call! I didn't make that connection.

 

[Cataholic]

Yep, I'm sure with his mates in footy and the media that he would have his finger a lot closer to the pulse than I do/can, but I'm still quite skeptical.

It's an easy throwaway line for a commentator and, as you say, a very convenient excuse for supporters to explain why their team is playing poorly.

It just never sounds legitimate......it would explain a few things IF it were true, but to my mind, it doesn't explain our mental fragility. We are cracking under pressure too easily.

 

[catempire]

How could Brown know this for a fact? I have no idea.

I’m sure he has connections to his former teammates and now coaches at Geelong - Scott, Lappin and O’Bree.

 

[Max Milburn]

I’m sure he has connections to his former teammates and now coaches at Geelong - Scott, Lappin and O’Bree.

Oh yeah, him too.

 

[catempire]

Id like to know time in possession and the metres gained for that time.

Metres gained you are onto something.

+469 in wins
-345 in losses

Since the bye: -36, +521, -627, 447, -470

 

[Cataholic]

Good call! I didn't make that connection.

Might explain why Brown said he was less worried about Geelong's form going towards finals than Collingwood's

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

I’m sure he has connections to his former teammates and now coaches at Geelong - Scott, Lappin and O’Bree.

Haha, s**t. I totally forgot about Scott and Brown being former team-mates!

 

[thegerman]

If its a heavy training load thing, I'm glad they finally got the timing right.

In recent seasons we seemed to have the heavy training load throughout Sept

You forgot to add the rolled eyes emoji


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Intensity and tackling pressure is something that can be switched on.

Almost every week you’ll see a team play with a four quarter ferocity that they haven’t in previous weeks. Often it’s because they’re under pressure externally or they have another motivating factor to perform (new coach, finals on the line etc).

We pretty much brought the pressure every week before the bye. The win loss record attests to how successful it was.

I don’t think any team has ever sustained that kind of pressure for an entire season plus finals and I think it’s natural for that pressure to drop off when a) the team has a great ladder position, b) it’s cold in winter when historically top 2 teams have form fluctuations and c) we are clearly experimenting with a few things on the field.

I think our current problems come back to the switch not being flicked. Up the pressure across the field and Hawthorn don’t take uncontested marks inside 50 all day for example.

All this said, I’ll be worried if we don’t play at least one or two dominant quarters v Sydney...

Good post. I've been a bit down about our prospects after the last few weeks, but your post makes sense and gives me some hope we can turn things around.