They have a chance now to take an elite tall. Next draft there are none at the pointy end.
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I'm not sure, he probably could. Or at least he'd have to learn how to if we drafted him.
So? I'll give another example.
If they think Hollands is clearly better than McDonald then why go for a worse player? What if they deem McDonald to be not much better than Ben Brown but think Hollands is the next Fyfe? Are you saying they should still go tall if they believe Hollands could be the next Fyfe or Dusty?
I'm saying how else do you get an elite tall? I've said this before, but Cameron just yielded 3 firsts and the bloke is 28.
Fact is, the pointy end is the main way of bringing them in. And next year, it's all mids.
Plus Hollands is coming off an ACL.
Noble won't wanna fk this one up, straight off the bat.
I understand what you're saying but that would be to suggest that you think that it's likely that McDonald is the next Cameron or N.Riewoldt.
If McDonald turns instead into the next Patton or Hogan, then they're not even worth a third round pick.
You can't make a choice on what you fear will happen but simply who you think is the best player/talent/prospect however you want to categorise it.
Or Hollands could be the next Crouch. An injury riddled midfield talent.
All signs point to them trading Brown out for one reason.
So that's what you're actually saying. That because North got rid of Brown they will either take McDonald or Thilthorpe (as they possibly rate them the two best kids behind JUH).
HAWKSBESTEVA
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Norf didn’t want to get rid of brown , they offered him 750k 3 years but he wanted an extra year so they said get ****ed and go then. Them selecting Holland’s wouldn’t surprise me as he would probably be the best TALENT available at their pick. They could use talls though so hopefully they get one of them so Holland’s falls to us
They have absolutely no clue
Brant
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Regardless whatever else happens, if he's available then we should bid on Campbell
They get their info from the recruiters who get their info from the players, by draft day they will have the top 10 to 15 spot on. A bit sad as it takes away all the suspense of draft night.They have absolutely no clue
In a way, I hope we do trade pick 4 and a 2nd out for GWS' 3 first round picks. I also hope that we do so because we have projected that we can snare those u18 bolters who didn't get to shine this year.
I think the consensus top 5 is fine but I think there's a chance they won't end up the best 5 from this draft. They're just the 5 five who have shown the most so far. I'd clearly be happy with any of them, but I can't help but want the Hawks to nab this years Bont, Oliver, Cripps, Day whose 18th year really propelled them into contention.
If the rest of the vic kids had their U18 year I can see a world where Hollands doesn't go top 5 due to his ACL similar to Kemp last year. I want us to get those kids that we think were going to replace him cheaply.
Risk vs reward but I'd back our recruiters to have a strong idea who those kids might be and be bold enough to go after them. We can always try and bring in a few mature age players to offset the risk like Highmore, Rowe etc who are more predictable.
A lot of clubs are opting out of the draft and I'd love us to back ourselves in to zig when other are zagging.
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I think the consensus top 5 is fine but I think there's a chance they won't end up the best 5 from this draft. They're just the 5 five who have shown the most so far. I'd clearly be happy with any of them, but I can't help but want the Hawks to nab this years Bont, Oliver, Cripps, Day whose 18th year really propelled them into contention.
If the rest of the vic kids had their U18 year I can see a world where Hollands doesn't go top 5 due to his ACL similar to Kemp last year. I want us to get those kids that we think were going to replace him cheaply.
Risk vs reward but I'd back our recruiters to have a strong idea who those kids might be and be bold enough to go after them. We can always try and bring in a few mature age players to offset the risk like Highmore, Rowe etc who are more predictable.
A lot of clubs are opting out of the draft and I'd love us to back ourselves in to zig when other are zagging.
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Brant
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Haha
It's not because I'm vindictive, it's because I reckon he'll be an absolute jet & I want us doing everything possible to draft him.
yes, you'll almost certainly match... but maybe, maybe, your guy will be out of the room or using the bathroom etc. & the chance to match will drift by without your bid...
*I reserve the right to be vindictive again if we don't bid & you guys get 3 picks within 20.
Bruhn, Perkins and Henry are in that bracket of players. Maybe a couple of the other talls, such as cox.
the problem is, we simply don’t have the information on which to project how these players will perform this year. Bottom age performance is a rough guide but far from foul proof for projecting final under age performance. And then we have to project from that to afl level. Huge opportunity for error.
Haha
It's not because I'm vindictive, it's because I reckon he'll be an absolute jet & I want us doing everything possible to draft him.
yes, you'll almost certainly match... but maybe, maybe, your guy will be out of the room or using the bathroom etc. & the chance to match will drift by without your bid...
*I reserve the right to be vindictive again if we don't bid & you guys get 3 picks within 20.
You know what, I no longer feel guilty that the Swans poached Brand from you guys
Brant
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Yeh I hardly ever cry about that anymoreYou know what, I no longer feel guilty that the Swans poached Brand from you guys
The knee injury makes it very tricky though. The fact Hollands remains in the conversation for pick 1 says to me that he is the best talent but there is significant risk. Just look at Jaeger - he looked a generational talent not only at U18 level but at AFL level in his couple seasons before he wrecked his knee. Projecting how players will progress with their skills is hard enough but throwing in projection around a severe injury from which they have not yet returned and played any footy is high risk.
What is the right pick to take the plunge on possibly the highest upside player but who also runs the risk of being a bust with his body, Morabito style? Is pick 2 too early when they are 3 talls who have shown strong signs this year?
My gut feel is North will take that risk, in part because they don’t trust their club to keep interstate talent (another risk). But they are not really a club in a position to take a risk I’d have thought. If I were them I’d take Phillips and develop him as their next captain
Yardie
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You have to look at how your list will build over the years. A KPP takes longer than a mid. Hence it could be better to take a tall now and then grab a mid later.
You also need to look at Drafts in 2's when you're rebuilding. We need to know what's coming in 12 months, and the types of players that will be at the pointy end. That also impacts your decision in this draft.
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Would North trade us pick 2 for picks 4 and 24, we then pick Campbell which Swans match and then take DGBYou know what, I no longer feel guilty that the Swans poached Brand from you guys
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The idea that you ignore talls at the top end of the draft when you have Pick 2 and actually need a tall, because not all talls end up being in the top dozen in the comp is beyond silly.
If you rate those players and think you can develop them, you take them.
If North don’t take a tall that’s on them.
If you rate those players and think you can develop them, you take them.
If North don’t take a tall that’s on them.
Is DGB worth that much though? if GWS first 3 picks on offer, would Reid/Chapman be almost as good as DGB? then have 2 others to pick such as cox/carroll/ford/o'driscoll/powell/laurie. If he is that good, then by all means.Would North trade us pick 2 for picks 4 and 24, we then pick Campbell which Swans match and then take DGB
Yardie
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We often talk about Best Available for the draft but we should all remember 2004. Hawthorn (read Clarkson) specifically wanted talls from that draft to replace the talls leaving (Thompson being one of them). If we had gone with best available, at that time, we would have grabbed Tambling and not Roughead.
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