2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[PAFC27]

Petracca will be one of those season defining picks. In baseball terms it’s like getting a curve ball right on the edge of the plate, take a swing and you’ll probably miss but you might have to swing anyway because chances are it’s going to be a strike.

I think it's more season defining if you pick him and he sucks. If he sets the world on fire, bringing him into your side early on will still be very achievable at his price point

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I think it's more season defining if you pick him and he sucks. If he sets the world on fire, bringing him into your side early on will still be very achievable at his price point

Flip side is true too.
2x trades after round 1 can be hard to find.
If Petracca dishes up a 70 sulking at half forward you kick him to the kerb. No love lost.

His price offers you some flexibility such that you'll easily be able to go up to a premo, down to a rook or sideways to a wingard/greenwood/lipinksi type depending on your other trade for the week.

To get him in after round 1on the other hand.... that may prove to be a nightmare particularly when your structure is set and you might be happy with everyone else you've got.

Petracca's in my squad now! Needs to back it up in MarshNo. 2 of course but all signs are superb from him this year.

 

[PAFC27]

Flip side is true too.
2x trades after round 1 can be hard to find.
If Petracca dishes up a 70 sulking at half forward you kick him to the kerb. No love lost.

His price offers you some flexibility such that you'll easily be able to go up to a premo, down to a rook or sideways to a wingard/greenwood/lipinksi type depending on your other trade for the week.

To get him in after round 1on the other hand.... that may prove to be a nightmare particularly when your structure is set and you might be happy with everyone else you've got.

Petracca's in my squad now! Needs to back it up in MarshNo. 2 of course but all signs are superb from him this year.

1 premium defence, 1-2 premium midfield, R2 and a mid-premo priced forward spot are all still up for grabs in my side. Bring on Marsh 2

 

[Thetrader15]

Snelling is intriguing me. Always pulled good numbers for port in the SANFL and should have got more opportunities there. Fwd option too

Pity he played last year.

I was a fan of his u18 year, a real in and under inside mid. Reminds me of Brett James for those who remember him

 

[Neale4brownlow]

1 premium defence, 1-2 premium midfield, R2 and a mid-premo priced forward spot are all still up for grabs in my side. Bring on Marsh 2

I wish I could have your conviction.

Based off my changes in the past fortnight I reckon 27 spots are up for grabs in my squad (Grundy/Docherty/Mitchell are non negtiables).

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

I’m hearing ya!

I may have a backline that currently looks like

Docherty, Houston, Cerra, S.Hill, Roberton, Gould.

99.9% sure I won’t go through with it for the season proper, but nobody else is really jumping out at me, bar a Hunter Clark or Smith.

Did have Crisp at D1 in my first team of the season, but I can’t seem to find my way back to a ‘true’ premo at D1.

I've been reticent to make a case for Crisp because I'm happy for others to let him pass by. But surprised how few mentions he's getting here.

So I'll cave.

Here's how I see it:
- durability (24, 26, 22, 22, 22 games for last 5 seasons)
- consistent performer (98, 88, 88, 84, 91 ave for last 5 seasons)
- averaged 105 in second half of 2019
- priced at 98.
- age 26

Lloyd, Houli, Crisp, Laird, Stewart, Daniel are the top 6 from 2019 by average and I feel Laird is going backwards, Houli is 31 so comes with some risk, not sure Stewart and Daniel have room to improve as they haven't demonstrated that ceiling. Lloyd finished 2019 poorly which is reason for doubt.

To me Crisp represents a relatively solid set and forget option in the midst of uncertainty. Going at 105 for the second half of the year also shows his ceiling, and potential for an improved 2020, with 54% of games in 2019 >100 and 1 in 6 games >120.

I am currently rolling with a value-laden defence with Sicily D1 @ $620k. But if I decide to select a 2019 premium it'll be Crisp.

 

[Butterz]

I've been reticent to make a case for Crisp because I'm happy for others to let him pass by. But surprised how few mentions he's getting here.

So I'll cave.

Here's how I see it:
- durability (24, 26, 22, 22, 22 games for last 5 seasons)
- consistent performer (98, 88, 88, 84, 91 ave for last 5 seasons)
- averaged 105 in second half of 2019
- priced at 98.
- age 26

Lloyd, Houli, Crisp, Laird, Stewart, Daniel are the top 6 from 2019 by average and I feel Laird is going backwards, Houli is 31 so comes with some risk, not sure Stewart and Daniel have room to improve as they haven't demonstrated that ceiling. Lloyd finished 2019 poorly which is reason for doubt.

To me Crisp represents a relatively solid set and forget option in the midst of uncertainty. Going at 105 for the second half of the year also shows his ceiling, and potential for an improved 2020, with 54% of games in 2019 >100 and 1 in 6 games >120.

I am currently rolling with a value-laden defence with Sicily D1 @ $620k. But if I decide to select a 2019 premium it'll be Crisp.

Has been my D1 and only true premium priced defender for the last few weeks

 

[kraka]

watching this all sarts game....man JJ has some ripper inside 50's. Bevo better be watching!

 

[11kgm]

Grundy looks hungry

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Watching Whitfield run around has got him back into my side. Had concerns after his surgery in the off season he may start slow but looks in fine nick

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Where can we check the scores for tonight’s game?

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Sicily is going straight out of my team. Poor kid struggling to get a kick

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Where can we check the scores for tonight’s game?

AFL.com.au website/app

 

[Butterz]

Coniglio has been coming back into consideration for me the last few days as his ownership has dropped to around 17%. I don't think the announcement of his apparent increased fwd split will really have much impact. I think it will be a very similar role to what he had last year where he would occasionally move forward and generally hit the scoreboard, resulting in a very high ceiling. Also taking on the captaincy this year I think this will be a positive for him and seems like the type of bloke who will enjoy the added responsibility. Has also looked to be scoring with ease tonight.

Also I haven't considered C.Mills once all pre season but has looked great from his limited game time tonight. I think a lot of people had him as a break out candidate over the last few years, but hasn't seemed to have a mention this pre season. Is this because of his role, or have people just gone cold on him?

Another thing to note on Mills is he is priced at $559k which is around the mark of Houston/Doch which places him awkwardly.

 

[StickyMick]

Anyone else feel the same?

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Coniglio has been coming back into consideration for me the last few days as his ownership has dropped to around 17%. I don't think the announcement of his apparent increased fwd split will really have much impact. I think it will be a very similar role to what he had last year where he would occasionally move forward and generally hit the scoreboard, resulting in a very high ceiling. Also taking on the captaincy this year I think this will be a positive for him and seems like the type of bloke who will enjoy the added responsibility. Has also looked to be scoring with ease tonight.

Also I haven't considered C.Mills once all pre season but has looked great from his limited game time tonight. I think a lot of people had him as a break out candidate over the last few years, but hasn't seemed to have a mention this pre season. Is this because of his role, or have people just gone cold on him?

Another thing to note on Mills is he is priced at $559k which is around the mark of Houston/Doch which places him awkwardly.

Yeah i'm re-considering Coniglio too, played pretty well for his score tonight. He'll still average over 105 and will have few of those 130+ scores.

Wouldn't touch Mills, i picked him as a POD near the end of last year and he does heavily rely on marks for decent scores. Pretty frustrating some games he would kill it (today) and some days he wouldnt touch it and finish on 60-70.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Although tonight’s game isn’t overly fantasy relevant, given that Dimma was the coach of the Vics, I think that’s enough to see how they plan on playing Dusty this year.

From what I could tell watching the game, he seemed to spend a good 80% of his game time in the forward 1/3 of the ground. Think that’s what we can expect from him this year and He will need 3-4 goals a game in that role to constantly hit the 100. He’s a solid no from me for the first month or two of the season based on tonight and his positioning from Dimma.

 

[PAFC27]

Coniglio has been coming back into consideration for me the last few days as his ownership has dropped to around 17%. I don't think the announcement of his apparent increased fwd split will really have much impact. I think it will be a very similar role to what he had last year where he would occasionally move forward and generally hit the scoreboard, resulting in a very high ceiling. Also taking on the captaincy this year I think this will be a positive for him and seems like the type of bloke who will enjoy the added responsibility. Has also looked to be scoring with ease tonight.

Also I haven't considered C.Mills once all pre season but has looked great from his limited game time tonight. I think a lot of people had him as a break out candidate over the last few years, but hasn't seemed to have a mention this pre season. Is this because of his role, or have people just gone cold on him?

Another thing to note on Mills is he is priced at $559k which is around the mark of Houston/Doch which places him awkwardly.

Didn't understand the drop off based on coaches comments. He played a fair bit forward last year. 20 touches and 3 goals is still a tonne in my book

 

[Thetrader15]

I've been reticent to make a case for Crisp because I'm happy for others to let him pass by. But surprised how few mentions he's getting here.

So I'll cave.

Here's how I see it:
- durability (24, 26, 22, 22, 22 games for last 5 seasons)
- consistent performer (98, 88, 88, 84, 91 ave for last 5 seasons)
- averaged 105 in second half of 2019
- priced at 98.
- age 26

Lloyd, Houli, Crisp, Laird, Stewart, Daniel are the top 6 from 2019 by average and I feel Laird is going backwards, Houli is 31 so comes with some risk, not sure Stewart and Daniel have room to improve as they haven't demonstrated that ceiling. Lloyd finished 2019 poorly which is reason for doubt.

To me Crisp represents a relatively solid set and forget option in the midst of uncertainty. Going at 105 for the second half of the year also shows his ceiling, and potential for an improved 2020, with 54% of games in 2019 >100 and 1 in 6 games >120.

I am currently rolling with a value-laden defence with Sicily D1 @ $620k. But if I decide to select a 2019 premium it'll be Crisp.

Crisp is a gun. I've had him most of the PS and he is my #1 to try to get back in.

No convincing required here

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I've been reticent to make a case for Crisp because I'm happy for others to let him pass by. But surprised how few mentions he's getting here.

So I'll cave.

Here's how I see it:
- durability (24, 26, 22, 22, 22 games for last 5 seasons)
- consistent performer (98, 88, 88, 84, 91 ave for last 5 seasons)
- averaged 105 in second half of 2019
- priced at 98.
- age 26

Lloyd, Houli, Crisp, Laird, Stewart, Daniel are the top 6 from 2019 by average and I feel Laird is going backwards, Houli is 31 so comes with some risk, not sure Stewart and Daniel have room to improve as they haven't demonstrated that ceiling. Lloyd finished 2019 poorly which is reason for doubt.

To me Crisp represents a relatively solid set and forget option in the midst of uncertainty. Going at 105 for the second half of the year also shows his ceiling, and potential for an improved 2020, with 54% of games in 2019 >100 and 1 in 6 games >120.

I am currently rolling with a value-laden defence with Sicily D1 @ $620k. But if I decide to select a 2019 premium it'll be Crisp.

Had him all last year and was/is a great pick.

Though I would say I was never confident in him getting that 90-100 at any point on any given week.

He's the kind of player who could be on 20 at HT then get 50pts in a qtr to make up for it. High stress owning him.

Also his consistency is his downfall. He's priced exactly where he'll average this year and he's almost no chance to improve on that....

... he could however easily get worse. Like I said.. he seemed to pull something out of the bag for 1 qtr every week but that luck will run out sooner or later.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Although tonight’s game isn’t overly fantasy relevant, given that Dimma was the coach of the Vics, I think that’s enough to see how they plan on playing Dusty this year.

From what I could tell watching the game, he seemed to spend a good 80% of his game time in the forward 1/3 of the ground. Think that’s what we can expect from him this year and He will need 3-4 goals a game in that role to constantly hit the 100. He’s a solid no from me for the first month or two of the season based on tonight and his positioning from Dimma.

On the contrary it may have nothing to do with how theyll play him...

Hardwick is his coach... why would he play him in the guts for a charity match when he can keep him safe deep forward where the fans like to watch him anyway?

 

[Zevon]

Had him all last year and was/is a great pick.

Though I would say I was never confident in him getting that 90-100 at any point on any given week.

He's the kind of player who could be on 20 at HT then get 50pts in a qtr to make up for it. High stress owning him.

Also his consistency is his downfall. He's priced exactly where he'll average this year and he's almost no chance to improve on that....

... he could however easily get worse. Like I said.. he seemed to pull something out of the bag for 1 qtr every week but that luck will run out sooner or later.

I was trying to remember why I benefited greatly from owning him last year yet still never really enjoyed the ride. You’ve absolutely nailed it. Even when he went on that 6 week (I think?) stretch of consecutive 100s I still never felt confident seeing his name in my backline. And yeah those really quiet patches in games followed by a mega quarter to save himself... shudder. I guess it doesn’t matter how you get to a good score but it was scary watching at times.

Anyway I think he’ll be good again but I’m not seeing any value and wouldn’t be surprised if he regressed to the high-80s player he was before last year.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Guys ...can anyone explain in plain english, how this new utility position works please ?

 

[Big Cox 88]

Guys ...can anyone explain in plain english, how this new utility position works please ?

You can pick any player to use there no matter their actual position. It basically gives us one more cash cow instead of the useless R4 position. I am filling it with a dual position rookie so I can use them as cover for 2 lines.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

You can pick any player to use there no matter their actual position. It basically gives us one more cash cow instead of the useless R4 position. I am filling it with a dual position rookie so I can use them as cover for 2 lines.

So this player can be substituded for a FWD, DEF, MID ....and RUCK ?