Strategy 2021 Mid-pricer madness

How many midpricers is the correct number for SC 2021?

  • All of my starting 18 only

    Votes: 14 51.9%
  • N + 1

    Votes: 4 14.8%
  • Only a couple - I am not much fun at parties and think The Big Bang Theory is funny

    Votes: 9 33.3%

  • Total voters
    27

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stevebbb

Brownlow Medallist
May 21, 2013
16,877
36,804
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Arsenal, Fluminense; Blue Jays
On that logic what would be the limit of how many one picks out of Sloane, Harmes, Rozee, Heppell or Caldwell if going for League wins? 1-2 max? None?
Just depends on what you truly believe will happen. If you're picking a mid-pricer with the intention of them being a keeper, because you genuinely believe they'll average 90+ or something, then go for it, back your gut. If you're picking them just because you think they'll do OK and "there are no good cheap rookies", then maybe reconsider. Obviously each scenario is different, like paying $210k for Impey compared to paying $370k for Rankine.

Back your gut :)
 

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Lord De Goey

Team Captain
Jun 4, 2019
339
539
AFL Club
Collingwood
I had Hunter Clark last season and am avoiding him like the plague this time round.

Watch him average 100 playing on ball.
I traded him in after round 4 last season. Looking back at his first 4 scores, I have no idea why. Had to keep him all year too. It was frustrating because he's clearly a brilliant player, it just hasn't resulted in consistent supercoach scores yet. I have no doubt that he will average 105+ for years to come one day.

Speaking about mid pricers though, you'll win some and lose some. I managed a top 1000 finish last year starting Parish, Petracca and Brayshaw. 2/3 was a decent return and parish finished the season strong.
 

stevebbb

Brownlow Medallist
May 21, 2013
16,877
36,804
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Arsenal, Fluminense; Blue Jays
I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)


Player2020 starting price2020 average2020 matches played2020 position
Cumming$245k673DEF
Naismith$252k1002RUCK
Roberton$260k261DEF
Fort$265k815FWD
Lukosius$275k8017FWD/DEF
Long$283k7214FWD
Birchall$293k7014DEF
Ridley$323k10217DEF
Dsmith$336k8516FWD/MID
Rowbottom$338k7616FWD/MID
Cerra$339k9017DEF
Jacobs$348k96.37RUCK
Short$349k9717DEF
And Brayshaw$383k10117FWD/MID
Simpkin$383k9317FWD/MID
Lynch$389k6816FWD
Tomlinson$390k6013MID
Narkle$397k645MID
Wingard$412k8417FWD/MID
Walsh$412k10117MID
Baz Smith$416k9217FWD/MID
Ceglar$417k7213FWD/RUCK
Hanners$417k706MID
Howe$432k1214DEF
Hurley$433k8014DEF
Maynard$434k10217DEF
Docherty$436k9216DEF
Viney$439k10016MID
Petracca$441k11817FWD
MacPherson$444k5712FWD/MID
English$448k10317RUCK
Ang brayshaw$452k8114MID
NicNat$458k11116RUCK
Greenwood$463k10617FWD/MID
Dawson$468k8516DEF/FWD
Weller$481k8117DEF
Bsmith$481k8216DEF
Crisp$483k9917DEF
Houston$485k9115DEF/MID
O'Meara$491k9112MID
 
Last edited:

Chaisa

Premium Platinum
Jun 2, 2013
12,032
11,453
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
The Exers
From that list, the successes IMO were:

Short
Andy Brayshaw
Howe*
Petracca
Naitanui
Greenwood
Crisp

With Viney, Docherty, Cerra and Walsh as borderline hits (though IIRC Walsh didn't really start doing well until the second half of the year)
 

Jcpdragonx

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 19, 2010
11,941
12,716
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Lakers, Chiefs
I think guns and rookies is the go for me. Mostly because we have so many proven guys to pick from, spoilt for choice in the midfield and def. And the rookies seem to be in the mids/fwds. If the rookies dont show up then ill probably split Ziebell into Campbell and have an extra 60k to play with.

Young at D6 and then running a bunch of the 250-180k guys in the forward line is what I currently have. Would love Green but it looks like I need to run Young at D6 so I dont have to watch Ling score 30 again.

Harmes - Role/Still good?
Duggan - Injuries/Can he do it 22 games?
Williams - Injury/Role
Caldwell - Age/Ceiling/injuries/22 games?
Green - Age/22 games/Role - although damn he looks good, and it looks like the role is there but they did hold back Hopper and Kelly a bit. I'm tempted
Taranto - Ceiling
Hately - Role/22 Games/Job security
Heppell - Injuries/Ceiling
Rayner - Role/Age/Ceiling
Young - Injuries/Ceiling
 

Northernsoul74

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2016
9,534
14,223
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Naughtoooooooon!!!!!! He's tearing this game to shreds!!!!
I’ve thought about it after Matthew Lloyds comments the other week.

“I was at a function and a Western Bulldogs player was there, I won’t say who he was," Lloyd said.

“He said Aaron Naughton in training has been unstoppable. I think he could be an outstanding centre-half back but forward is where they need him.

“They said that in one of the games he played … in three quarters of footy had 24 disposals, 14 marks and kicked five goals - and he took a mark that they believe would have been Mark of the Year.”
 

Mofra

Moderator
Dec 6, 2005
51,086
142,701
Footscray
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Footscray, The Exers
I’ve thought about it after Matthew Lloyds comments the other week.

“I was at a function and a Western Bulldogs player was there, I won’t say who he was," Lloyd said.

“He said Aaron Naughton in training has been unstoppable. I think he could be an outstanding centre-half back but forward is where they need him.

“They said that in one of the games he played … in three quarters of footy had 24 disposals, 14 marks and kicked five goals - and he took a mark that they believe would have been Mark of the Year.”
He'd be one you really ride the bumps with - 110 one week, 12 the next.
I'm not bold enough to pull the trigger on a mid-pricer KPF (Daniher I have but only as a stepping stone and he'll get some ruck points as well).
 

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Northernsoul74

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2016
9,534
14,223
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
He'd be one you really ride the bumps with - 110 one week, 12 the next.
I'm not bold enough to pull the trigger on a mid-pricer KPF (Daniher I have but only as a stepping stone and he'll get some ruck points as well).
Yeah I thought about until I realized he would have been up against Gardner and Cordy types.
 

buttox

Norm Smith Medallist
May 20, 2009
6,132
8,966
coburg
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)


Player2020 starting price2020 average2020 matches played2020 position
Cumming$245k673DEF
Naismith$252k1002RUCK
Roberton$260k261DEF
Fort$265k815FWD
Lukosius$275k8017FWD/DEF
Long$283k7214FWD
Birchall$293k7014DEF
Dsmith$336k8516FWD/MID
Rowbottom$338k7616FWD/MID
Cerra$339k9017DEF
Jacobs$348k96.37RUCK
Short$349k9717DEF
And Brayshaw$383k10117FWD/MID
Lynch$389k6816FWD
Tomlinson$390k6013MID
Narkle$397k645MID
Wingard$412k8417FWD/MID
Walsh$412k10117MID
Ceglar$417k7213FWD/RUCK
Hanners$417k706MID
Howe$432k1214DEF
Hurley$433k8014DEF
Maynard$434k10217DEF
Docherty$436k9216DEF
Viney$439k10016MID
Petracca$441k11817FWD
MacPherson$444k5712FWD/MID
English$448k10317RUCK
Ang brayshaw$452k8114MID
NicNat$458k11116RUCK
Greenwood$463k10617FWD/MID
Dawson$468k8516DEF/FWD
Weller$481k8117DEF
Bsmith$481k8216DEF
Crisp$483k9917DEF
Houston$485k9115DEF/MID
O'Meara$491k9112MID
no simpkin?
i guess no one was chatting about him
 

Chaisa

Premium Platinum
Jun 2, 2013
12,032
11,453
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
The Exers
From that list, the successes IMO were:

Short
Andy Brayshaw
Howe*
Petracca
Naitanui
Greenwood
Crisp

With Viney, Docherty, Cerra and Walsh as borderline hits (though IIRC Walsh didn't really start doing well until the second half of the year)
If we also consider why these guys broke out:

Short - breakout year
Brayshaw - breakout year
Howe - not sure. Given it was only 4 games it might've just been a form hit, but 2019 was a bit of a slump, I think the shortened quarters played to his strengths and Collingwood's game style seemed much better suited to mass points from their defenders than before.
Petracca - breakout year, better role
Naitanui - less injuries, shortened quarters played to his strengths
Greenwood - new club, more midfield time
Crisp - not sure here. Defensive points inflation? Change in tactics? Was only a minor improvement in scoring so don't think he did much differently
Maynard - natural progression + defensive points inflation

Viney - less injuries, better form
Docherty - returning from injury
Cerra - natural progression/breakout year
Walsh - natural progression
English - natural progression
 

Andrew Birch

Boomer Degen
Dec 3, 2017
14,055
39,276
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
🇦🇺
I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)


Player2020 starting price2020 average2020 matches played2020 position
Cumming$245k673DEF
Naismith$252k1002RUCK
Roberton$260k261DEF
Fort$265k815FWD
Lukosius$275k8017FWD/DEF
Long$283k7214FWD
Birchall$293k7014DEF
Dsmith$336k8516FWD/MID
Rowbottom$338k7616FWD/MID
Cerra$339k9017DEF
Jacobs$348k96.37RUCK
Short$349k9717DEF
And Brayshaw$383k10117FWD/MID
Simpkin$383k9317FWD/MID
Lynch$389k6816FWD
Tomlinson$390k6013MID
Narkle$397k645MID
Wingard$412k8417FWD/MID
Walsh$412k10117MID
Ceglar$417k7213FWD/RUCK
Hanners$417k706MID
Howe$432k1214DEF
Hurley$433k8014DEF
Maynard$434k10217DEF
Docherty$436k9216DEF
Viney$439k10016MID
Petracca$441k11817FWD
MacPherson$444k5712FWD/MID
English$448k10317RUCK
Ang brayshaw$452k8114MID
NicNat$458k11116RUCK
Greenwood$463k10617FWD/MID
Dawson$468k8516DEF/FWD
Weller$481k8117DEF
Bsmith$481k8216DEF
Crisp$483k9917DEF
Houston$485k9115DEF/MID
O'Meara$491k9112MID
Imagine being the poor sucker that started McPherson over Petracca based on pre-season form.

lol.JPG
 

stevebbb

Brownlow Medallist
May 21, 2013
16,877
36,804
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Arsenal, Fluminense; Blue Jays
I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)


Player2020 starting price2020 average2020 matches played2020 position
Cumming$245k673DEF
Naismith$252k1002RUCK
Roberton$260k261DEF
Fort$265k815FWD
Lukosius$275k8017FWD/DEF
Long$283k7214FWD
Birchall$293k7014DEF
Ridley$323k10217DEF
Dsmith$336k8516FWD/MID
Rowbottom$338k7616FWD/MID
Cerra$339k9017DEF
Jacobs$348k96.37RUCK
Short$349k9717DEF
And Brayshaw$383k10117FWD/MID
Simpkin$383k9317FWD/MID
Lynch$389k6816FWD
Tomlinson$390k6013MID
Narkle$397k645MID
Wingard$412k8417FWD/MID
Walsh$412k10117MID
Ceglar$417k7213FWD/RUCK
Hanners$417k706MID
Howe$432k1214DEF
Hurley$433k8014DEF
Maynard$434k10217DEF
Docherty$436k9216DEF
Viney$439k10016MID
Petracca$441k11817FWD
MacPherson$444k5712FWD/MID
English$448k10317RUCK
Ang brayshaw$452k8114MID
NicNat$458k11116RUCK
Greenwood$463k10617FWD/MID
Dawson$468k8516DEF/FWD
Weller$481k8117DEF
Bsmith$481k8216DEF
Crisp$483k9917DEF
Houston$485k9115DEF/MID
O'Meara$491k9112MID
Added Ridley and Simpkin. Any others I'm missing?



Looking at the list, none bar Petracca were must-haves. Yes several guys did well, but most of them had form spikes. Some started poorly and then went nuts (Andrew Brayshaw, Walsh), others started well and then dropped off (Simpkin, Ridley, Doch, Viney). So with that, I'm happy to try a GnR approach this season, as long as the rookies are there
 

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