Land of the Giants
Premiership Player
Let’s be hard-nosed about this week’s preview. The Swans have had our measure since getting their act together in the second half of last season. We’ve lost the last three derbies by margins of two-to-three goals, and two of those losses were at home.
Where’s the evidence this will change on Saturday? Where will the improvement come from?
Take a careful look at the line-ups when we won three consecutive derbies back in 2016-2017. Sixteen of our players featured in all of three of those games, another seven played in two out of three. There were only four who played in just one. For the Swans, thirteen played in all three, seven in two, and eight played just one. Both teams were remarkably stable during that period, but we had their measure.
Look what’s happened since then. Three straight losses for us, with just eight players featuring in all three games, seven in two, and no less than thirteen playing just one. The figures for the Swans are eleven, ten, and five. They’ve been stable, and we’ve been unsettled. The situation has reversed.
Whether through injury, retirements, transfers, whatever, we’ve lost some serious talent along the way, with the result that while we’re still competitive against Sydney, we're not threatening. In Round 17 last year, and then Round 3 this year, the Swans led at every change to win quite comfortably on the day. And in Round 22, even though we led at every change, they ran over the top of us 6.5 to 1.3 in the last quarter.
So, again, where’s the evidence we can break this pattern and turn things around on Saturday? It’s a tall order, as we have to come up with a winning combination at the SCG, where we’ve only won once in six attempts.
I think we can safely assume Toby and Zac Williams will return, provided they get through the week unscathed. They’ll provide both finals experience and a bit of X-factor. Reid will make way for Toby and Finlayson for Williams. I’d replace Keefe with Matt de Boer. I think those are the three strongest candidates for inclusion.
Finding a spot for players like Corr and Griffen wold run the risk of making too many changes and further unsettling the team. The same goes for Deledio. He provides a bit of class, but is terribly injury prone. He’d be at risk of breaking down under finals intensity. There’s no second chance.
What about the Swans? They’ll almost certainly field the same team that beat us in Round 23, probably strengthened by the inclusion of Heath Grundy at the expense of Robbie Fox. Other than that, no changes. Franklin and Parker missed Round 23 with groin problems, but will almost certainly return.
They’ve had a very unusual season at home, losing more than winning, with the ledger sitting at 5 wins, 6 losses (and they were lucky it wasn’t 4-7). With the exception of 2000, when North were playing “home” games at the SCG, something like that hasn’t happened since 1995, way back in their dark ages. The home ground advantage of the SCG isn't what it was, especially over the past two seasons. Why that is, who knows? The question is whether we can capitalise on it.
We looked good against them in Round 22 before running out of puff in the last quarter, physically tired, and probably mentally fatigued by all the injuries. The week off will be gold to us. But it will also be gold to them…
Get ready for a real blockbuster. It will be one of our best wins if we get up and I hope to see some serious orange at the SCG.
The heart says we can win this, but the head says we won’t. And yet…I get the feeling we just might.
Let’s go Giants, let’s go.
Where’s the evidence this will change on Saturday? Where will the improvement come from?
Take a careful look at the line-ups when we won three consecutive derbies back in 2016-2017. Sixteen of our players featured in all of three of those games, another seven played in two out of three. There were only four who played in just one. For the Swans, thirteen played in all three, seven in two, and eight played just one. Both teams were remarkably stable during that period, but we had their measure.
Look what’s happened since then. Three straight losses for us, with just eight players featuring in all three games, seven in two, and no less than thirteen playing just one. The figures for the Swans are eleven, ten, and five. They’ve been stable, and we’ve been unsettled. The situation has reversed.
Whether through injury, retirements, transfers, whatever, we’ve lost some serious talent along the way, with the result that while we’re still competitive against Sydney, we're not threatening. In Round 17 last year, and then Round 3 this year, the Swans led at every change to win quite comfortably on the day. And in Round 22, even though we led at every change, they ran over the top of us 6.5 to 1.3 in the last quarter.
So, again, where’s the evidence we can break this pattern and turn things around on Saturday? It’s a tall order, as we have to come up with a winning combination at the SCG, where we’ve only won once in six attempts.
I think we can safely assume Toby and Zac Williams will return, provided they get through the week unscathed. They’ll provide both finals experience and a bit of X-factor. Reid will make way for Toby and Finlayson for Williams. I’d replace Keefe with Matt de Boer. I think those are the three strongest candidates for inclusion.
Finding a spot for players like Corr and Griffen wold run the risk of making too many changes and further unsettling the team. The same goes for Deledio. He provides a bit of class, but is terribly injury prone. He’d be at risk of breaking down under finals intensity. There’s no second chance.
What about the Swans? They’ll almost certainly field the same team that beat us in Round 23, probably strengthened by the inclusion of Heath Grundy at the expense of Robbie Fox. Other than that, no changes. Franklin and Parker missed Round 23 with groin problems, but will almost certainly return.
They’ve had a very unusual season at home, losing more than winning, with the ledger sitting at 5 wins, 6 losses (and they were lucky it wasn’t 4-7). With the exception of 2000, when North were playing “home” games at the SCG, something like that hasn’t happened since 1995, way back in their dark ages. The home ground advantage of the SCG isn't what it was, especially over the past two seasons. Why that is, who knows? The question is whether we can capitalise on it.
We looked good against them in Round 22 before running out of puff in the last quarter, physically tired, and probably mentally fatigued by all the injuries. The week off will be gold to us. But it will also be gold to them…
Get ready for a real blockbuster. It will be one of our best wins if we get up and I hope to see some serious orange at the SCG.
The heart says we can win this, but the head says we won’t. And yet…I get the feeling we just might.
Let’s go Giants, let’s go.
