List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

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Link to contract status of all players -

 
So for examples sake, if North Melbourne lose by say, 2 goals, how much would the cats have to beat us by for us to finish last?

Assume it is an 80-68 loss for North, then assuming we score 50 points (not sure that is quite a lock, but let's aim to the higher end), it is about 238 points Geelong need to score...


Even if we only score 20-30 points Geelong would need to get 150 for us to drop to 58.3% (which is around what Nth would get to losing 100vs101).

So pretty much no chance of the spoon unless North win or lose a high scoring contest very, very closely - and we have a 'worst day in AFL history' sort of loss.
 

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Have GC said they want to salary dump and will offload him with a second rounder without sending a second rounder (or better back)? I did see someone mention then give us both their this year second rounder and us giving them our second rounder next year. Have GC indicated they want to do this, or are we playing war games with plastic army men from Toys'R'Us?
The toy soldiers of possibility.
 
From the West -

"According to the Herald Sun’s 100-player rich list, the Eagles are estimated to be spending more than $6m of their $13m cap on Jeremy McGovern, Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly, Jack Darling, Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey and Nic Naitanui alone.

And most of them are locked into long-term deals, with only Shuey and Naitanui out of contract at the end of this season."

Mmm No Barrass mentioned


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Is there any reasonable chance that Norf might get up and beat the Suns this week?

We have zero chance at Corio Bay so hoping we get a draft upgrade

North are every chance to beat the Suns.
 
From the West -

"According to the Herald Sun’s 100-player rich list, the Eagles are estimated to be spending more than $6m of their $13m cap on Jeremy McGovern, Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly, Jack Darling, Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey and Nic Naitanui alone.

And most of them are locked into long-term deals, with only Shuey and Naitanui out of contract at the end of this season."

Key word is “estimated”.
 
Hurn should retire and Gaff shopped around. Not sure anyone would be keen, but still.

Happy for Shuey, Redden and Nic Nat to play on next year. Got to stagger the end of the oldies and not do it all at once (whether that's end of this year or next year).
That's my take. Hurn has been good this year, but there's very little to be gained by the club from him going on. Thanks for your service, a tap on the shoulder and let's not make this ugly. Gaff doesn't fit into our future plans, but given his poor form this year and hefty contract, suitors would be limited, but the right deal might free up some salary and who knows, he might benefit from a change of scenery (and being played in his proper position).
 
Hurn should retire and Gaff shopped around. Not sure anyone would be keen, but still.

Happy for Shuey, Redden and Nic Nat to play on next year. Got to stagger the end of the oldies and not do it all at once (whether that's end of this year or next year).
Ideally for me, Hurn would retire, maybe Shuey too (but it won't happen) and Gaff traded (again, won't happen). But I don't see the end of the world if these guys play on another year provided we cut deeply (or trade if any takers) our fringe players who simply don't offer enough (i.e. the supplemental players, Trew, West, Foley, Nelson (the last two not terrible players) etc). We will then be moving the older guys on next year. Either way, both groups will need to be moved on over the next two drafts (fringe players and oldies) and I am not sure it matters which order it is done in. We can't do it all at once and we have a lot of list turn over needed.

The problem I see though is if we retain all of the older players, they will keep getting games at the expense of our younger players, so we can only retain them if they are prepared for youth to be prioritized (something I am not convinced the MC will do) and to be on low salaries. Also, if we retain the older guys, we have to cut deeper with the fringe players this year.

Basically, I think our list is in terrible shape with a few gems. We need to turn over a large part of it and it will take several years. I think we traded well last year but have a long way to go with the need for quality on almost every line.
 

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Ideally for me, Hurn would retire, maybe Shuey too (but it won't happen) and Gaff traded (again, won't happen). But I don't see the end of the world if these guys play on another year provided we cut deeply (or trade if any takers) our fringe players who simply don't offer enough (i.e. the supplemental players, Trew, West, Foley, Nelson (the last two not terrible players) etc). We will then be moving the older guys on next year. Either way, both groups will need to be moved on over the next two drafts (fringe players and oldies) and I am not sure it matters which order it is done in. We can't do it all at once and we have a lot of list turn over needed.

The problem I see though is if we retain all of the older players, they will keep getting games at the expense of our younger players, so we can only retain them if they are prepared for youth to be prioritized (something I am not convinced the MC will do) and to be on low salaries. Also, if we retain the older guys, we have to cut deeper with the fringe players this year.

Basically, I think our list is in terrible shape with a few gems. We need to turn over a large part of it and it will take several years. I think we traded well last year but have a long way to go with the need for quality on almost every line.
We clearly need quality on every line but, at the same time, I think we have some quality on almost every line and not just a few gems. Allen, Darling and Ryan up forward; Kelly, Yeo and Sheed in the middle, McGovern and Barrass down back. Injuries might seem like an excuse but missing Allen, Yeo and Sheed for most of the year has made us appear worse than we probably are. I think we drafted well last year, we need to draft well early this year, but I would also be looking at trading in some talent in that 22-26 age bracket because that's where we are weakest. If the list is too heavy on over 30s and under 20s, next year could be just as bad as this year.
 
So this talk of major trades will certainly shape the draft order.

Large deals I see are:
1. Jackson to Freo
2. Lobb to Dogs
3. Grundy to Dees
4. Rankin to Crows
5. Taranto to Hawks
6. Hopper to Tigers
7. Bruhn to Cats

Straight Forward Trades
I am hearing Lobb to Dogs - Freo get a R1 and give back a future R2. Deal is easy provided Freo confident of getting Jackson.
Jackson to Freo with Dogs and Freo R1 which stands today at 10 and 13. About right but as we know, it is not a single digit pick.
Rankin to Crows for pick 5 plus something else makes sense. What the something else will probably not impact us or the early order.
Taranto to Hawks for 6 is about right.
Hopper to Tigers for 12 is about right.
Bruhn to Cats for 18 is about right.
What will Pies want for a salary dump but a very good ruck? Melbourne link was a surprise and with Jackson going, they have the picks but do they have the cap space? Will Freo and Dogs R1 be right? It will all depend on the salary negotiations.

If Grundy goes to Melbourne, I expect the Pies keep de Goey meaning 1 less FA compo before our 2 second round picks.
 
You really think port will trade MG to us for pick 20 ?

Secondly do you think we would do that ?

No and no. Unless we split pick 2 for serious overs, which is unlikely.

Thats why I said both were crazy.

So I couldnt see how we get Georgiades at at discount which is what you suggested was the only way it could happen.

Not having a go. Just saying I cant see how we get him at a discount. This year anyway.

What do you feel is his fair value? 14 to 15? This year.
What about if Port were to get pick 2 from us to land Horn Francis?

I suggest Norf could accept pick 2 for a first rounder who is not settling, won't extend and not showing the standards expected of an elite talent.

Port give us pick 8, the Amon FA compo likely to be 20/22 and Georgiades for pick 2.

Port have pick 8 which will still likely net us Clark/McKenzie/Hewett/possibly still Phillipou plus we get someone like Hotton/D'Aloia at 20/22 and Georgiardis. Yes it is a premium, but if they are so keen on local SA talent, then they might be willing. I'd even be OK swapping R3 picks - our 38 and Port are holding Saints R3.

Obviously if we get pick 1 it makes the deal with Norf even easier and looks less of a premium to us.

In other words, a three for 1 pick. What would you want
Option 1 - one of Wardlaw/Sheezel/Tsatas
Option 2 - Georgiades plus Clark plus Hotton
 
The other big problem is that at the end of 2023 we would almost certainly lose NN, Shuey, Redden and Hurn.

The argument to keep them is that they are all B22 (when fit), which is true, but if that remains so into late next year then we would have 4 basically untried players coming in for 2024. That's not a recipe for success in the next 3-5 years.

There may be some other contracted players we trade out (not sure who, or who would have value to other teams) but with our current list make-up I'm much more comfortable with the idea that we lose an older player too soon (even if they go to another club for 1-2 seasons) than holding them too long (which, it could be argued, has actually already occurred with a couple).

That is a hollow argument.

Those 4 will not play 23 games next year.

Redden has already said he is happy and expects toplay WAFL to help the kids develop. You need a big mid playing 2nds to protect the kids and fly the flag.

Nic sharing the ruck with a developing ruck is fine. The developing ruck cant carry the entire load.

Shuey plays forward and rotates letting thekids have a crack on the inside.

And finally we have more than enough dead wood to cut. But you instead want club champions and leaders to be cut and we retain the dead wood? That sounds............well not very smart IMO.

Next season Hurn, Shuey and Redden will retire. Nic may as well but could have 1 more year in him if he can get and stay fit.
 
What about if Port were to get pick 2 from us to land Horn Francis?

I suggest Norf could accept pick 2 for a first rounder who is not settling, won't extend and not showing the standards expected of an elite talent.

Port give us pick 8, the Amon FA compo likely to be 20/22 and Georgiades for pick 2.

Port have pick 8 which will still likely net us Clark/McKenzie/Hewett/possibly still Phillipou plus we get someone like Hotton/D'Aloia at 20/22 and Georgiardis. Yes it is a premium, but if they are so keen on local SA talent, then they might be willing. I'd even be OK swapping R3 picks - our 38 and Port are holding Saints R3.

Obviously if we get pick 1 it makes the deal with Norf even easier and looks less of a premium to us.

In other words, a three for 1 pick. What would you want
Option 1 - one of Wardlaw/Sheezel/Tsatas
Option 2 - Georgiades plus Clark plus Hotton

Option 3 - Georgiades plus Humphrey plus Hotton.

And we still have 20, 26 and 38 to use.
 
So this talk of major trades will certainly shape the draft order.

Large deals I see are:
1. Jackson to Freo
2. Lobb to Dogs
3. Grundy to Dees
4. Rankin to Crows
5. Taranto to Hawks
6. Hopper to Tigers
7. Bruhn to Cats

Straight Forward Trades
I am hearing Lobb to Dogs - Freo get a R1 and give back a future R2. Deal is easy provided Freo confident of getting Jackson.
Jackson to Freo with Dogs and Freo R1 which stands today at 10 and 13. About right but as we know, it is not a single digit pick.
Rankin to Crows for pick 5 plus something else makes sense. What the something else will probably not impact us or the early order.
Taranto to Hawks for 6 is about right.
Hopper to Tigers for 12 is about right.
Bruhn to Cats for 18 is about right.
What will Pies want for a salary dump but a very good ruck? Melbourne link was a surprise and with Jackson going, they have the picks but do they have the cap space? Will Freo and Dogs R1 be right? It will all depend on the salary negotiations.

If Grundy goes to Melbourne, I expect the Pies keep de Goey meaning 1 less FA compo before our 2 second round picks.

Pies to land Toranto is more likely.

Or Tigers.
 
That is a hollow argument.

Those 4 will not play 23 games next year.

Redden has already said he is happy and expects toplay WAFL to help the kids develop. You need a big mid playing 2nds to protect the kids and fly the flag.

Nic sharing the ruck with a developing ruck is fine. The developing ruck cant carry the entire load.

Shuey plays forward and rotates letting thekids have a crack on the inside.

And finally we have more than enough dead wood to cut. But you instead want club champions and leaders to be cut and we retain the dead wood? That sounds............well not very smart IMO.

Next season Hurn, Shuey and Redden will retire. Nic may as well but could have 1 more year in him if he can get and stay fit.

The issue with what you propose is we lose all of that experience together, at one time.

I'm not sure that has ever worked well for a team - and has been a recipe for a longer stint at the bottom of the ladder.

Alternatively, losing 1 or 2 (not advocating to cut all 4 now) now, and the other 1-2 next year would be ideal. As good as Hurn has been this season he is probably the first to go - maybe Shuey.

Having Shuey pass time playing on a HFF (rather than playing a younger guy who we want to be a future reliable HFF), or Hurn on a HBF again (and I know he will finish top 3 in the B&F... but again, are we better having him or Hough in that spot in 2023) is not a lot of value to our future.

Some hard calls need to be made (along with some easy calls, like Trew, Nelson, Naish, Joyce, etc).
 
Not with your Mr Nice Guy approach to the oldies. They have done a great job but let us look forward.
I gave my reasons for why I expect and am fine with them staying. None of them had to do with being nice or thanking them for their service with an extra year on the list, it has to do with the fact that we don’t benefit from it at all. As I say:

I think these are calls that just make it seem like we’re embracing the rebuild, but really sell ourselves short for no reason other than to make people feel better

I won’t be upset if we move them all on this offseason, but I don’t think it helps us and it simply will not happen in any case. I’ve done my R1 2023 lineup and there’s still plenty of room for the kids even factoring in Gaff/Shuey/Hurn/Naitanui being in the MC’s plans, and the whole list being fully healthy which let’s face it is not happening.

We gain more by having these guys playing bit parts and teaching the kids every day at training than by cutting them now just because they owned cassette tapes growing up. They’ll be gone by 2024, the list will be more suited to exposing the kids by then, and the Culley/Chesser/Hough/Bazzo/Pick 2’s of the world will do well to learn from some former stars who’ve been there before while they can.
 
Hurn should retire and Gaff shopped around. Not sure anyone would be keen, but still.

Happy for Shuey, Redden and Nic Nat to play on next year. Got to stagger the end of the oldies and not do it all at once (whether that's end of this year or next year).
If Hurns' happy to kick around another year on minimal coin he'd be worth keeping just for leadership off the field and developing the new youth.

We can't purge everyone as the depth just isn't there at the minute.

Gaff we should definitely shop around or just move on for nothing just to free up his salary (or part there of).
 
The issue with what you propose is we lose all of that experience together, at one time.

I'm not sure that has ever worked well for a team - and has been a recipe for a longer stint at the bottom of the ladder.

Alternatively, losing 1 or 2 (not advocating to cut all 4 now) now, and the other 1-2 next year would be ideal. As good as Hurn has been this season he is probably the first to go - maybe Shuey.

Having Shuey pass time playing on a HFF (rather than playing a younger guy who we want to be a future reliable HFF), or Hurn on a HBF again (and I know he will finish top 3 in the B&F... but again, are we better having him or Hough in that spot in 2023) is not a lot of value to our future.

Some hard calls need to be made (along with some easy calls, like Trew, Nelson, Naish, Joyce, etc).

What? Arent you proposing to get rid of them all straight away?

And what do you suggest we replace them all with? Picks 80+ and rookie selections? Duds from elsewhere?

North did what you are suggesting 4 years ago.

And the kids will get games, that was clearly explained.........and obviously ignored.
 
We clearly need quality on every line but, at the same time, I think we have some quality on almost every line and not just a few gems. Allen, Darling and Ryan up forward; Kelly, Yeo and Sheed in the middle, McGovern and Barrass down back. Injuries might seem like an excuse but missing Allen, Yeo and Sheed for most of the year has made us appear worse than we probably are. I think we drafted well last year, we need to draft well early this year, but I would also be looking at trading in some talent in that 22-26 age bracket because that's where we are weakest. If the list is too heavy on over 30s and under 20s, next year could be just as bad as this year.
I agree but not sure on Yeo's or MGovern's durability and neither are young. As I said, ideally, some of the older guys should go but not sure it is going to happen this year so, if it doesn't, we need to turn over the fringe players more deeply and make the cuts to the oldies next year. Either way, we need quality youth coming through and can't do it all at once.

A fit list would certainly help but I just worry that we haven't had a fit list for a long time so not sure the trend will be changing, particularly with the older guys (many of whom are our quality).
 
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