Greatest Dynasty of the 21st century - Lions vs Cats vs Hawks vs Tigers

Which dynasty is the greatest?


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Yet in 2013 the Hawks performed better in first quarters than Geelong did in 2011. Hawks would just turn up for the first quarter and that was it. They just cruised for the whole home and away season.

He also said they an underwhelming finals series despite beating the reigning premiers by 54 points and beating his best team ever that still had over a dozen players from the 2011 Geelong team in a prelim.


Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Ok so now first quarters are all that count.

I'm sorry I thought when assessing dominance, the ability to actually play out a game would come into it.
 
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We win next year and there isn't even a debate in regards to the greatest dynasty of the 21st century.

Still Hawthorn ;)

3 premierships in 4 years does not make a dynasty........... Need to add a fourth and then MAYBE.
To be better than Hawthorn or even the Lions, they have to make 4 grand finals in a row!
 
You've completely turned my words around. I never said whoever has the best home & away record is dominant. I said that when you declare that one team dominated their season, they should at least be the best team in it.

You said this....

Final Siren said:
I think most people would say you should be the best team as a pre-requisite. And then only if you're MUCH better than everyone else are you dominant.

Under this definition, Richmond 2018 and Port 2003 both were dominant in the home and away season. Both 2 games clear on top of the ladder.

Now, I was making the argument that Geelong were dominant all year. You said they weren't, because Geelong weren't the minor premier. That's why I brought Richmond and Port into it.

If you wanna restrict it to all year, and you’re saying that a team has to:

  • Easily be the best all home and away season
  • And
  • Easily the best in the finals
Then which teams in VFL/AFL history even meet this criteria at all?

Carlton 1995, Essendon 2000 and Geelong 2007 are only ones that immediately spring to mind.

If you’re using a definition that means there’s only one “dominant team” every 10 years or more, then maybe your definition is too restrictive!

Have I missed something? I’m not trying to misrepresent you at all……
 

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Nah, I strongly disagree. It's all relative to a number of factors.

Accordingly to Dr Google dominance is “Power and influence over others”.

In some years, there is no dominant team. Some years are very even. 1993 was like this. 1997.

But even if one team looks easily the best, it doesn't mean they "dominated". This is an 18 team competition that spans 22 rounds. It's not just about being "the best", it's about being consistently awesome. If the minor premier has 16 wins and 6 losses with a percentage of 125, and 2nd position is 15 wins and 7 losses with a percentage of 115, then the minor premier is an obvious minor premier. Clear top position. Looks easily the best. But they weren’t dominant- because they were obviously very beatable by losing 6 games, and didn’t win their games by huge margins.

Compare the team who finished 1 game and 10% clear on top, to Geelong who were 19-3 with a historically awesome percentage of 157. Geelong were dominant because they were consistently awesome, regardless of the fact that there was another dominant team around at the same time.

Thought experiment: If two teams went 21-1 and won every game by 8 goals except the two games they split 1-1 against each other, would you say "Oh no, no dominant team this year! There was no clear number 1 team!" or would everyone think there was two dominant teams?

2009 and 2011 were seasons where there were two dominant teams. Two teams were consistently very, very good, who just happened to peak at the same time.

In 2011 Collingwood and Geelong lost a combined 5 home and away games (3 if you exclude games against each other). Both teams won loads of games by 50+. Both were undefeated against the 3rd ranked side (Hawthorn).

There were 3 recent years with a seriously dominant team, who didn’t win the premiership. In 2 of those 3 years, the very dominant team didn't win because Geelong beat them! (2009 and 2011).

As I keep emphasizing, this is one of the main reasons why Geelong’s premierships were greater than Brisbane’s, Richmond’s or Hawthorn’s. Because Geelong beat extremely dominant opposition.

Somewhat off-topic, but it is pretty remarkable that three of the five sides to win 20+ home and away games in the history of the VFL/AFL - Geelong in 08, Saints in 09, Pies in 2011 - didn't win the premiership. Even more incredibly, it happened 3 times in the space of 4 years.

Looking at those seasons individually, I guess they show that:
  • in a competition decided in a one-off game, unexpected outcomes can happen (as opposed to league seasons in European soccer, or playoff series in American sports). 2008 falls into this category, as I think Geelong would would have have won that game 7 or 8 times out of 10, nothwithstanding that Hawthorn had a very good season

  • it's a truism that AFL premierships are won by the team in the best form come the finals. As previously noted by you, PJays, and a couple of other posters, I think that 2009 and to a lesser extent, 2011, fall into this category, as the Saints and Pies weren't as dominant in the finals as they had been for most of the home and away season. Both teams had very narrow, physically taxing prelim wins, too, whereas the Cats smashed their prelim opponents both years. I find the 08 Cats harder to place on the "form at the business end of the season metric" - they had won 15 games in a row leading into the grand final, so statistically speaking were in remarkably good form. But I seem to remember thinking at the time that they looked a little off in their prelim against the Dogs, even though they won it fairly comfortably in the end - and obviously any dip in form is a relative concept for a team that had been so dominant for so long. Cats fans can probably enlighten me on whether the manner of their prelim victory (combined with Hawthorn blitzing St Kilda in the other prelim) gave them any concerns leading into the GF, or if they were super-confident given their tremendous form over the previous 18 months

  • each of these three 20-win teams faced a very strong challenger that was good enough to take advantage of any slip-ups. Geelong in 2011 is - I think - statistically speaking the best team ever to finish second on the ladder, with a 19-3 win-loss record at 157 per cent. Geelong in 09 and the Hawks in 08 had pretty similar records; the Cats one won more game (18 to 17), but the Hawks had a better percentage. I suspect that if, hypothetically speaking, the 08, 09 and 11 grand finals had been won by the higher-ranked team, the Cats (x 2) and Hawks would have been regarded among the better runner-ups in the AFL era.
Since 2011, only one team - the Hawks in 2013 - have come close to a 20-win season. Is this a function of the competition becoming more even, or the top teams not being quite as strong in the post-compromised draft era? Probably a bit of both, tbh. And in fairness to the non-Victorian sides who have won the minor premiership in that timeframe - the Swans, Freo, Adelaide and Port (with a shortened season) - I reckon it is tougher for them to rack up those 18/19/20 win seasons, due to increased travel, playing more genuine away matches, etc.
 
There’s been several references to other sports. So let’s look a qualifying heats in olympics or the group round in the World Cup.

there’s just so many examples of champions doing the bare minimum in what they see as a qualifying round, but bringing the a game in the crunch deciders.

can anyone tell me what this is?

5: ESS. 4: PTA,GEE. 3: WCE,SYD. 2: ADEL,HAW,COLL,STK. 1:RICH,NM,CARL,FRE
 
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Ok so now first quarters are all that count.

I'm sorry I thought when assessing dominance, the ability to actually play out a game would come into it.

Is that what I said? All that count?

You and PJays have a hard time with representing the facts of what someone said despite you claiming how good you are at facts.

Also, you still haven't responded why all the greatest teams/dynasties I mentioned in soccer and basketball ALL defended their title an no other teams who haven't done so are not considered in the same conversations.
 
Somewhat off-topic, but it is pretty remarkable that three of the five sides to win 20+ home and away games in the history of the VFL/AFL - Geelong in 08, Saints in 09, Pies in 2011 - didn't win the premiership. Even more incredibly, it happened 3 times in the space of 4 years.

Looking at those seasons individually, I guess they show that:
  • in a competition decided in a one-off game, unexpected outcomes can happen (as opposed to league seasons in European soccer, or playoff series in American sports). 2008 falls into this category, as I think Geelong would would have have won that game 7 or 8 times out of 10, nothwithstanding that Hawthorn had a very good season

  • it's a truism that AFL premierships are won by the team in the best form come the finals. As previously noted by you, PJays, and a couple of other posters, I think that 2009 and to a lesser extent, 2011, fall into this category, as the Saints and Pies weren't as dominant in the finals as they had been for most of the home and away season. Both teams had very narrow, physically taxing prelim wins, too, whereas the Cats smashed their prelim opponents both years. I find the 08 Cats harder to place on the "form at the business end of the season metric" - they had won 15 games in a row leading into the grand final, so statistically speaking were in remarkably good form. But I seem to remember thinking at the time that they looked a little off in their prelim against the Dogs, even though they won it fairly comfortably in the end - and obviously any dip in form is a relative concept for a team that had been so dominant for so long. Cats fans can probably enlighten me on whether the manner of their prelim victory (combined with Hawthorn blitzing St Kilda in the other prelim) gave them any concerns leading into the GF, or if they were super-confident given their tremendous form over the previous 18 months

  • each of these three 20-win teams faced a very strong challenger that was good enough to take advantage of any slip-ups. Geelong in 2011 is - I think - statistically speaking the best team ever to finish second on the ladder, with a 19-3 win-loss record at 157 per cent. Geelong in 09 and the Hawks in 08 had pretty similar records; the Cats one won more game (18 to 17), but the Hawks had a better percentage. I suspect that if, hypothetically speaking, the 08, 09 and 11 grand finals had been won by the higher-ranked team, the Cats (x 2) and Hawks would have been regarded among the better runner-ups in the AFL era.
Since 2011, only one team - the Hawks in 2013 - have come close to a 20-win season. Is this a function of the competition becoming more even, or the top teams not being quite as strong in the post-compromised draft era? Probably a bit of both, tbh. And in fairness to the non-Victorian sides who have won the minor premiership in that timeframe - the Swans, Freo, Adelaide and Port (with a shortened season) - I reckon it is tougher for them to rack up those 18/19/20 win seasons, due to increased travel, playing more genuine away matches, etc.

You can make the argument based on your initial point that winning that much during the home and away season means that

A) you've expended too much energy
B) you've shown all your best cards
C) all the above
 
Actually the two main drivers of this angle have been the two major statistical contributors to the thread.

The only numeric defence that anyone has offered to counter it has been either a) "but they never went back to back" or b) Hawthorn won an extra flag in 2008.

That's literally it. That is all anyone has used in terms of cold hard numbers and facts to try and analyse and refute what Fadge and PJays have said.

We've had people try and argue dictionary definitions of the word dominant. One poster has consistently just blamed everything on umpires - you want to talk intangibles? There's your intangible right there. Another has tried to blame injuries and a back-half-of-season form slump..... that never actually existed. Another post tried to cite Ben Reid's injury as a reason Geelong's 2011 grand final win lacks merit - ignoring that Reid was fit enough to play out the game, and the opponent he started on exited the game early. What Geelong's opponents have done in years after they were defeated has been used to discredit them. Like seriously if someone beat Usain Bolt at the peak of his powers, then at the next Olympics Bolt didn't make it past the heats, would that diminish the effort of the guy that beat him previously? That was arguably the peak of the silly arguments.

To your credit you are one poster who has actually seemingly tried to do some reasonable level of factual analysis in some capacity, but to look at what PJays has posited and accuse him of grasping at intangibles... well it suggests you haven't actually read any of what he's posted.

‘is it not a case that two teams have threepeated (among 4 grand finals straight) and another looks like it could do the same. That arguers for geelong (who clearly believe their team was easily the best, and not by a small margin) have had to find other lists of items to offset the fact that just one win in one game would have meant the arguments were equally simple and straight forward?
There’s anecdotal evidence the team thinks so too cos they embarked on a fanatical revenge winning 12 games straight against a hawks team which wasn’t poor by any description? They know how it tarnishes their rep.
 
Is that what I said? All that count?

You and PJays have a hard time with representing the facts of what someone said despite you claiming how good you are at facts.

Also, you still haven't responded why all the greatest teams/dynasties I mentioned in soccer and basketball ALL defended their title an no other teams who haven't done so are not considered in the same conversations.


Spurs won in 03-05-07.


melbourne Storm 'won' in 07-09-12. Any rugby league fan, notwithstanding the fact that they were later stripped of 07/09, knows they were a dynasty. They sure as hell didn't take a back seat to, say, Parramatta of the 80s who won 3 in a row.

Parramatta aren't even regarded unequivicolly as the best team of the 80s despite winning 81-82-83-86. That honour is shared with the Bulldogs. Who won 80-84-85 (yes I realise that's back to back) and 88.

No one has won back to back titles in rugby league in a unified competition since 92-93. The Roosters - my own team - did it last year. It hasn't automatically made them leapfrog other teams who had compressed periods of success but didn't win twice in a row.

You can make as many comparisons as you want. No one has yet proved that winning consecutively somehow makes a team better than one who wins 2 titles with basically the same team non-sequentially.

Hell, in AFL itself the 90s Eagles are regarded more highly than the Crows. Why? Because they were a better side.

You - you - not anyone else - just tried to claim that the dominance discussion comparing the 2013 Hawks to other teams is moot because in 2013 the Hawks averaged a 9 point lead at quarter time.

So what? Do games only go for one quarter?

In that case, why not look at smaller periods of dominance like the Cats 12-win streak to start 2009 or their 15 game streak mid-way through 2007.
 
If he compared it to any of Hawthorn's premiership seasons it would come out looking better. That's not intangible, that's mathematics.

‘it’s not remarkable that two teams ‘dominate’ a season. What’s touchy feels is saying there was tough opposition that year. It was a two horse race. Interpretation could easily be the general opposition was very poor resulting in more blow outs than usual. Percentage. I’m not saying it was, but it’s a feasible assumption
 
Spurs won in 03-05-07.


melbourne Storm 'won' in 07-09-12. Any rugby league fan, notwithstanding the fact that they were later stripped of 07/09, knows they were a dynasty. They sure as hell didn't take a back seat to, say, Parramatta of the 80s who won 3 in a row.

Parramatta aren't even regarded unequivicolly as the best team of the 80s despite winning 81-82-83-86. That honour is shared with the Bulldogs. Who won 80-84-85 (yes I realise that's back to back) and 88.

You can make as many comparisons as you want. No one has yet proved that winning consecutively somehow makes a team better than one who wins 2 titles with basically the same team non-sequentially.

Hell, in AFL itself the 90s Eagles are regarded more highly than the Crows. Why? Because they were a better side.

You - you - not anyone else - just tried to claim that the dominance discussion comparing the 2013 Hawks to other teams is moot because in 2013 the Hawks averaged a 9 point lead at quarter time.

So what? Do games only go for one quarter?

In that case, why not look at smaller periods of dominance like the Cats 12-win streak to start 2009 or their 15 game streak mid-way through 2007.

Are you suggesting that Spurs are better or equal to the great Lakers, Boston, Bulls and Golden State teams?
 
‘it’s not remarkable that two teams ‘dominate’ a season. What’s touchy feels is saying there was tough opposition that year. It was a two horse race. Interpretation could easily be the general opposition was very poor resulting in more blow outs than usual. Percentage. I’m not saying it was, but it’s a feasible assumption


there was tough opposition between the two sides, between Hawthorn in third, and the Eagles in fourth who finished with a 17-5 record, as good as teams ranked higher than them in other seasons.

Of course there were weak sides. There is every year. The carcass of Adelaide this year in another year would be Melbourne, or Carlton, or Gold Coast. That's not in dispute.
 

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Are you suggesting that Spurs are better or equal to the great Lakers, Boston, Bulls and Golden State teams?


Did I say that?

I think they easily have claims at being rated alongside the Golden State team.

Boston were unbeatable for over a decade. Whether consecutive or not the fact is they won 11 out of 14 championships. It's so far ahead of the next best as to be laughable.

They aren't as good as Chicago - they won 6 out of 8 and were as close to unbeatable while Jordan was there as any side you could imagine. If Chicago's success stopped with just their first three peat though, absolutely I think they'd have claims as being in the discussion at least.

The Lakers won five out of nine - though by your reckoning they hadn't achieved a thing until the last of those five - that was the only time their Showtime team went back to back.
And even Lakers fans would still probably tell you that the 80s team was better than the three in a row side of the early 2000s.
 
Hell, in AFL itself the 90s Eagles are regarded more highly than the Crows. Why? Because they were a better side.
This. No one in their right mind would consider Adelaide a greater team than either WC or North in the 90s. WC fluffing it in 93 is actually no worse than Adelaide effectively fluffing it in 96 and 99 - Adelaide's back to back is no greater achievement. The cumulative tally of sucess is what's important, including making GFs and prelims. North's 8(?) straight prelims ahead of Adelaide's 2 is much more important than back-to-back premierships versus 2 flags in 4 years.
 
Are you suggesting that Spurs are better or equal to the great Lakers, Boston, Bulls and Golden State teams?
of that era they are. They won 5 championships in a 15 year period. The Lakers won 5, Bulls 6 and the Warriors 3. The Spurs are recognized as one of the best, most consistent organisations in the NBA
 
This. No one in their right mind would consider Adelaide a greater team than either WC or North in the 90s. WC fluffing it in 93 is actually no worse than Adelaide effectively fluffing it in 96 and 99 - Adelaide's back to back is no greater achievement. The cumulative tally of sucess is what's important, including making GFs and prelims. North's 8(?) straight prelims ahead of Adelaide's 2 is much more important than back-to-back premierships versus 2 flags in 4 years.
This is a great point, when I think of great teams in the 90s the first couple that spring to mind are West Coast and North.
 
3 flags is 3 flags. All these great teams won 3.

Backing up a flag with another one, and another one is impressive.

But so is beating one of the most dominant home and away teams in history, after you lost the best player in the comp (Ablett) and everybody said your era was over.
 
  • in a competition decided in a one-off game, unexpected outcomes can happen (as opposed to league seasons in European soccer, or playoff series in American sports). 2008 falls into this category, as I think Geelong would would have have won that game 7 or 8 times out of 10, nothwithstanding that Hawthorn had a very good season.

Astute observation.

I remember this being on my mind in 2010. I went to the MCG and watched Collingwood beat St Kilda easily, and I thought “oh no! This is it….we blew our chance last year. Collingwood’s not getting beaten this year!”.

In the end, we got closer in 2010 than we did in 2009.

Collingwood were easily the best team that year, but would’ve lost the grand final if the ball had bounced the right way for Milney (and probably would’ve lost if there had been extra time, like there is now). But if that game had been played 10 times, Collingwood win 7 or 8.

I’m a big basketball fan, so I always compare the sports. In footy, it strikes me that we make huge statements based on small sample sizes.

One example “Nick Riewoldt wasn’t a finals player”. Really, based on what? His 3 grand finals? 3 games? What about the 2009 qualifying final and prelim final, where St Kilda kicked 21 goals and their opponents kicked 14? Riewoldt kicked 9! He kicked one quarter of the total goals across two finals matches against top 4 teams. 5 goals less than the entire opposing teams across two matches! And finished the prelim with the last two goals- he was the matchwinner. But oh no, Riewoldt can’t play finals!

Small sample sizes. I think it means luck or chance plays a greater role.

It also means you really gotta make those few opportunities count. Something my team sadly hasn’t done!
 
Astute observation.

I remember this being on my mind in 2010. I went to the MCG and watched Collingwood beat St Kilda easily, and I thought “oh no! This is it….we blew our chance last year. Collingwood’s not getting beaten this year!”.

In the end, we got closer in 2010 than we did in 2009.

Collingwood were easily the best team that year, but would’ve lost the grand final if the ball had bounced the right way for Milney (and probably would’ve lost if there had been extra time, like there is now). But if that game had been played 10 times, Collingwood win 7 or 8.

I’m a big basketball fan, so I always compare the sports. In footy, it strikes me that we make huge statements based on small sample sizes.

One example “Nick Riewoldt wasn’t a finals player”. Really, based on what? His 3 grand finals? 3 games? What about the 2009 qualifying final and prelim final, where St Kilda kicked 21 goals and their opponents kicked 14? Riewoldt kicked 9! He kicked one quarter of the total goals across two finals matches against top 4 teams. 5 goals less than the entire opposing teams across two matches! And finished the prelim with the last two goals- he was the matchwinner. But oh no, Riewoldt can’t play finals!

Small sample sizes. I think it means luck or chance plays a greater role.

It also means you really gotta make those few opportunities count. Something my team sadly hasn’t done!


This is one of my biggest bugbears. It happens on a weekly basis. Someone has a quiet game - oh he's crap.

It's getting a huge run in the Dangerfield vs Martin thread at the moment. You'd swear blind that every final Dangerfield has played has been a 0 goal, 5 touch effort with 9 free kicks against. The fact is he's played one grand final, played ok but not brilliant, and 3-4 other finals he's been fairly average so the deduction is made that he shits his pants in any game of any importance.
 
‘it’s not remarkable that two teams ‘dominate’ a season. What’s touchy feels is saying there was tough opposition that year. It was a two horse race. Interpretation could easily be the general opposition was very poor resulting in more blow outs than usual. Percentage. I’m not saying it was, but it’s a feasible assumption

30 second run down of teams other than Geelong and Collingwood in 2011

Hawthorn: Buddy, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli, Roughhead, Burgoyne, Gibson, etc etc. 19-1 against teams not named Geelong or Collingwood.

West Coast: 17-5 and lost one game at Subiaco. Go read the names in this team. Star studded.

St Kilda: Won 11 of 15 in home stretch, only losses to Collingwood, Geelong and Sydney. Had Riewoldt, Milne, Goddard, Montagna, Fisher, Dempster, Dal Santo (Hayes was injured). At the end of a stretch where they made finals 7 years out of 8 since 2004, 5 prelims, 3 grand finals.

Sydney: Made finals every year 2003-2011 except 2009. Won premiership next year in 2012.

Carlton: Ratten's Blues. Another perennial finals team whose season ended 3 times by tiny margins in interstate finals. 2011 was their best year, almost knocking off WC in the semi despite injuries.

Summary: Geelong and Collingwood were dominant because they were so incredibly good, not because the competition was weak.

And, Geelong still had to beat a better grand final opponent than Hawthorn or Brisbane or Richmond ever did. That still counts for something, regardless of the rest of the teams.
 
There’s been several references to other sports. So let’s look a qualifying heats in olympics or the group round in the World Cup.

there’s just so many examples of champions doing the bare minimum in what they see as a qualifying round, but bringing the a game in the crunch deciders.

can anyone tell me what this is?

5: ESS. 4: PTA,GEE. 3: WCE,SYD. 2: ADEL,HAW,COLL,STK. 1:RICH,NM,CARL,FRE
thats first place after the H&A season right
 
of that era they are. They won 5 championships in a 15 year period. The Lakers won 5, Bulls 6 and the Warriors 3. The Spurs are recognized as one of the best, most consistent organisations in the NBA

Key word you used is organisations, not team.
 
There’s been several references to other sports. So let’s look a qualifying heats in olympics or the group round in the World Cup.

there’s just so many examples of champions doing the bare minimum in what they see as a qualifying round, but bringing the a game in the crunch deciders.

can anyone tell me what this is?

5: ESS. 4: PTA,GEE. 3: WCE,SYD. 2: ADEL,HAW,COLL,STK. 1:RICH,NM,CARL,FRE


I can't recall any world cup qualifying round football team just doing 'the bare minimum.' One loss or loss of points can totally re-arrange where you finish. Yes when a game is won 4-0 with 15 minutes to play they will take some of their stars off but they don't do the bare minimum.
Heat runners or swimmers are a little different, finishing 1-4 doesn't ostensibly make any difference aside from which lane you're swimming in so there is a lot less on the line, and it isn't going to effect your opposition in the finals either. Ie. Finishing 2nd in a heat doesn't give you an easier path to the final than finishing 3rd in a heat.
Where you finish in a football season has big implications. And yes there will be times when teams put the cue in the rack after a win is assured, but there aren't a lot of times barring the closing rounds of a season where you can't move up or down the ladder where a side will take to the field and not try to win.
 
This is one of my biggest bugbears. It happens on a weekly basis. Someone has a quiet game - oh he's crap.

It's getting a huge run in the Dangerfield vs Martin thread at the moment. You'd swear blind that every final Dangerfield has played has been a 0 goal, 5 touch effort with 9 free kicks against. The fact is he's played one grand final, played ok but not brilliant, and 3-4 other finals he's been fairly average so the deduction is made that he shits his pants in any game of any importance.

Oh. Please. Just goes to show your bias as you are now comparing Danger to Martin. You've had Tiger friends helping you in this thread, I doubt they'll come to your aid in this one, in fact, I don't think anyone will.
 
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