Analysis Pick 5 - 2018

[The Falcon Strike]

Surely for freo they’re just trying to do hogan for Neale

Neale the better performed player, hogan with a higher ceiling and certainly a more pressing need

Let Brisbane satisfy Melbourne

 

[tonygeeks]

Surely for freo they’re just trying to do hogan for Neale

Neale the better performed player, hogan with a higher ceiling and certainly a more pressing need

Let Brisbane satisfy Melbourne

If Beams goes doesn't Neale become pretty pressing for Brisbane


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[eastfreo75]

• Fremantle lose Neale for pick 5 and lions future second
• Fremantle on trade pick 5 plus pick 11 for Hogan and 36
• Melbourne on trade pick 5 and get May and pick 19,24.

 

[Virgin Dog]

• Fremantle lose Neale for pick 5 and lions future second
• Fremantle on trade pick 5 plus pick 11 for Hogan and 36
• Melbourne on trade pick 5 and get May and pick 19,24.

If Melbourne want May, that final trade would have to remove picks 19 and 24. It would need to be, at the very minimum, a straight swap for Pick 5.
May is a free agent next year, in hot demand, and would easily net band 1 compo for the Suns. Assuming they finish bottom 4 next year, that is Pick 5 at the very worst anyway, and even potentially Pick 2

 

[Belnakor]

• Fremantle lose Neale for pick 5 and lions future second
• Fremantle on trade pick 5 plus pick 11 for Hogan and 36
• Melbourne on trade pick 5 and get May and pick 19,24.

We will try to hang onto at least one pick in the 1st round so i can't see trading both pick Pick 5/11 for Hogan unless we get some more from the Lions.

Fremantle will be anchored on Weller getting Pick 2, so they will be thinking Pick 5 + First rounder in the early teens.

 

[Belnakor]

If Melbourne want May, that final trade would have to remove picks 19 and 24. It would need to be, at the very minimum, a straight swap for Pick 5.
May is a free agent next year, in hot demand, and would easily net band 1 compo for the Suns. Assuming they finish bottom 4 next year, that is Pick 5 at the very worst anyway, and even potentially Pick 2

its a good point and similiar situation for Freo and Neale. Both clubs are likely to be towards the bottom of the ladder which means any compensation pick is going to be very good. Suns getting a compo Pick 2 is very likely unless Carlton keep stinking up another year. There is no skin off their back if May spends another year at GC if it means they get pick 2 next year.

 

[SL16]

Should end up at Adelaide.

 

[Crow till I die]

Should end up at Adelaide.

Agree. Seems logical that Adelaide's picks 8 & 16 (crows would try for 8 & 21 no doubt) for picks 5 & 32 or 41. Brisbane then trade 8 & 16 to Freo for Neale so they get the 2 x 1st rounders). Freo then can trade picks 8 & 11 to Melbourne for Hogan and still have pick 16 to either trade for Lobb and something back or use their 2nd for lobb and take pick 16 to the draft and probably snare Hill. If Hogan want May, then maybe 8 and future 2nd gets it done and they take 11 to the draft. I se it as a fair trade and everyone gets what they want

 

[MattyB_76]

If Port is smart, they would've made an agreement with Freo during their pick swap to demand Pick 5 be involved in any deal for Neale - otherwise Freo walk away from negotiations and hold Neale to his contract. This keeps Adelaide out of the picture for Port.

Freo can still potentially turn Pick 11 & a future 1st into Hogan without using Pick 5 anyway.
Freo can also turn Picks 23 and/or 30 into Lobb.

Freo will win the trade period if they land Pick 5, Hogan, Lobb and another first rounder in the Neale deal.

Can anyone here say "draft tampering"?

 

[GroggSquad]

Can anyone here say "draft tampering"?

I think we would be naive if we thought "gentleman agreements" of this type wouldn't happen during the trade and draft period.

It would be like how Richmond gave Corey Ellis & Anthony Miles to Gold Coast for free as an apparent favour for not matching a Tom Lynch bid, except more discrete obviously.

 

[MattyB_76]

I think we would be naive if we thought "gentleman agreements" of this type wouldn't happen during the draft period.

It's like how Richmond gave Corey Ellis & Anthony Miles to Gold Coast for free in return for not matching a Tom Lynch, except more discrete obviously.

I'm not imagining it doesn't happen (double negative, i know), but its still draft tampering. Part of the whole Kurt Tippett fiasco was that we promised to trade him to Qld for a 2nd rounder in a few years. It's comparable.

 

[G Mus]

Can anyone here say "draft tampering"?

Not without clear evidence

 

[Thetrader15]

I think pick 5 will end up at the Gold Coast.

Brisbane: pick 5, 2019 first rounder
Fremantle: Lachie Neale

Fremantle: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Melbourne: Jesse Hogan

Melbourne: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Gold Coast: Steven May

Brisbane gets Lachie Neale
Fremantle gets Jesse Hogan
Melbourne gets Steven May
Gold Coast gets two first round picks

Neale is nowhere close to 2 top 5 picks

Even David Noble wouldn't do that

 

[Thetrader15]

I'm not imagining it doesn't happen (double negative, i know), but its still draft tampering. Part of the whole Kurt Tippett fiasco was that we promised to trade him to Qld for a 2nd rounder in a few years. It's comparable.

Except for the clubs involved

 

[wizzard400]

Neale is nowhere close to 2 top 5 picks

Even David Noble wouldn't do that

two firsts is the price for elite players nowadays - Lever, Gibbs etc.

Plus there's a good to fair chance with the way they're tracking that Brisbane won't finish bottom 4 next year.

 

[Thetrader15]

two firsts is the price for elite players nowadays - Lever, Gibbs etc.

Plus there's a good to fair chance with the way they're tracking that Brisbane won't finish bottom 4 next year.

Not top 5! 2 late firsts sure

 

[wizzard400]

Not top 5! 2 late firsts sure

Regardless even if it's not their 2019 first round pick they'll have to cough up two firsts for him.

 

[Thetrader15]

Regardless even if it's not their 2019 first round pick they'll have to cough up two firsts for him.

13 and 16 from adel for 5 and neale in 3 way deal

 

[simmo97]

13 and 16 from adel for 5 and neale in 3 way deal

if Adelaide somehow got its hands on pick 5 pick 8 would be apart of the swap.

 

[Peel67skin]

Can Port and Fremantle swap pick again after Fremantle received pick 5 .

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

This draft is all about the SA top end and with Adelaide and Port holding high currency, time for Suns to cash in.

Pick 5 is in play and I cannot see why all 4 clubs in the Hogan-Neale-May deal don’t just transact with a couple of swaps to get the balance right. That leaves Suns with 2 3 5 19 24 and 29.

Would the Suns give 2 and 19 to Adelaide if they got back 8 13 and 16? It means Lukosious is out of play but Crows are desperate to land him.

I would then recommend the Suns trade 3 to Port for 6 and 10. That would mean Rankine is out of okay but again Port are desperate.

That would leave Suns with 5 6 8 10 13 16 24 and 29. Effectively means the Suns gain an extra 2 first round picks and walk away from Lukosious and Rankine.

 

[Andrew Birch]

This draft is all about the SA top end and with Adelaide and Port holding high currency, time for Suns to cash in.

Pick 5 is in play and I cannot see why all 4 clubs in the Hogan-Neale-May deal don’t just transact with a couple of swaps to get the balance right. That leaves Suns with 2 3 5 19 24 and 29.

Would the Suns give 2 and 19 to Adelaide if they got back 8 13 and 16? It means Lukosious is out of play but Crows are desperate to land him.

I would then recommend the Suns trade 3 to Port for 6 and 10. That would mean Rankine is out of okay but again Port are desperate.

That would leave Suns with 5 6 8 10 13 16 24 and 29. Effectively means the Suns gain an extra 2 first round picks and walk away from Lukosious and Rankine.

"That would leave Suns with 5 6 8 10 13 16 24 and 29."

That's looks great, but GC don't even have 8 list spots left to fill. (They only need 5 picks)

 

[Crow till I die]

"That would leave Suns with 5 6 8 10 13 16 24 and 29."

That's looks great, but GC don't even have 8 list spots left to fill. (They only need 5 picks)

On trade the last 3 picks to clubs for future picks. Hawthorm would love to get their hands on another 1st rounder to go with pick 15 to get wingard and plenty of clubs would be in line to swap future picks for 2nd rounders this year i would think. Remember picks can be swapped right up to draft night i believe

 

[Andrew Birch]

On trade the last 3 picks to clubs for future picks. Hawthorm would love to get their hands on another 1st rounder to go with pick 15 to get wingard and plenty of clubs would be in line to swap future picks for 2nd rounders this year i would think. Remember picks can be swapped right up to draft night i believe

GC need some decent best 22 players not future picks though.

 

[Crow till I die]

GC need some decent best 22 players not future picks though.

For sure. It is if they only had 5 list spots to fill under the scenario above tgey could take picks 5,6,8,10&13 to the draft