Preview See Ya 2019, Bring On 2020

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I don't reckon it's too early to get this up & running.

Finals has to be a pass mark if we don't get smashed by injury, as I reckon we are in the 5 to 8 calculations right now, all things going well.

Another preseason in to Simpkin, LDU, Thomas, Scott, Larkey, Ahern & Walker, the injection of some pace at the trade table, and another good junior inside the top 10 of the draft.

If we could snag the likes of Hill & Papley, then we could seriously threaten.
 
Finish 3 - 6 before finals.

If we have a good run with injuries.

We should be six and three under Shaw. Brisbane game was a rort. We were as or more likely to get the ball downfield and score than we have been for years imo.

Even so...

Under Shaw we've played the teams 2 - 7 on the ladder. We've only won 2 but of the others only 1 wasn't a very close game. Class got GWS over the line - just, the umps got the Lions over and luck and AMT got * the win in the last seconds. So we were only badly outclassed in one game against the best of the rest of the top eight, against the Premiers who are starting to come good, in their home fortress 4000 km away.

Next week we play the top team on the ladder. The week after we play 8 or 9 depending. So I guess some of my expectation for next year is also is based upon good performances against those sides. We'll see.

If we do perform well and push Geelong or beat them then beat Port ... well what you say about blaming Brad for missing finals this year is fair enough isn't it.

It would indicate the list is s**t hot and the coach is now good enough to get the best out of them. So the middle 4 of the top eight would be a reasonable expectation.

We're a chance against Geelong. Narrow ground suits our ability to pressure the ball but suits defending against Brown as well (so how we use the ball and approach the goals will be the difference for us i think.) How Shaw deals with it will be telling to what we can expect next year. Beat Geelong or lose by single figures and it's looking good. (Preferable to beat them obviously.)

Maybe 2, 3 or 4 with great drafting or trading and 4 -6 without it.
 
We have a premiership standard forward line with Wood and Garner fit. We lack another A grade midfielder, a reliable second key defender and a rebounding defender.

5th-10th next year, depending on trade period and the development of Simpkin, LDU, Larkey, Majak, EVW and TT. Edit: and Durdin/ McKay
 
The thing with BF is we roll out the same names each year and expect that organic growth will again get the job done. An interesting conversation I had was we believe we can pick our current best side from under 26 players, we aint got much after that.

Xerri- looks likely but isn't required as yet.
Wilkinson- dunno if he survives, as we will churn rookies in the hope of uncovering the next Zurhaar.
Declan Watson- in cricket parlance; has not offered a shot to a booming in-swinger that's hit him flush on the toe- gone!
Will Walker- looked ok, not sure we need another fwd at this stage?
EVW- Drafted 2014 , 15 career games =injury prone.
Dom Tyson- WTF?
Curtis Taylor- another mid fwd with some X-factor. In the mix with Walker.
Bailey Scott- is one we can bank I believe.
Og Murphy - I have NFI tbh
T Murphy- looks to have stalled and we're going to be brutal with our rookies, could be gone.
T McKenzie- NFI tbh
B McKay- just wishing he's Tarrant's replacement doesn't make it so, is not travelling as well as some BF pundits think.
B Jacobs- perpetually injured.
Nathan Hrovat- is facing the chop I'd suggest
Lachlan Hosie- another mid sized fwd, who we will retain. In the mix with Walker & Taylor.
Kyron Hayden- if will alone equals success, he's already won. I think he'll be fine
Aaron Hall- hope he's ok as he has the outside game we need
Taylor Garner- drafted 2012, 40 games= injury prone, is in the mix with Walker, Taylor and Hosie
Majak Daw- can he return to his best which of course was for only one season, I think so, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't when you factor in what happened.
Joel Crocker- No idea at this stage and fair enough
T Campbell- ruck back up only.

Not trying to be down on the guys but yeah there isn't much and just maybe the guy I chatted with wasn't wrong? I suppose we chopped the coach and are 13th after being impressed with our own 9th placed finish in 2018. I do see the light at the tunnels end, but if we want a real change up we're going to need to offer one of our few A graders, and I doubt we'll do that.


Whens Rawlings start? He's the key imo.
 
We have a premiership standard forward line with Wood and Garner fit.

Spot on. The forward line is ready to rumble, the trick is getting it there.
 
s**t, so he misses the whole off -season draft/trade period.
He said he'll be involved in any major decisions before December via distant consultation, it was more related to West Coke IP issues for the late start.
 
s**t, so he misses the whole off -season draft/trade period.

He’s a phone call away and contractually it’s likely he just has to keep his WC info to himself. I’m sure he’d give feedback where required.
 
Do they still do the 6-6-6 thing with fixturing? If so, and assuming we finish bottom 6, we could be in for a softer draw (like what say Brisbane got this year) then that will help considerably. But we really need a good run with injuries finally. If we get that then who knows what can happen.
 

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The thing with BF is we roll out the same names each year and expect that organic growth will again get the job done. An interesting conversation I had was we believe we can pick our current best side from under 26 players, we aint got much after that.

Xerri- looks likely but isn't required as yet.
Wilkinson- dunno if he survives, as we will churn rookies in the hope of uncovering the next Zurhaar.
Declan Watson- in cricket parlance; has not offered a shot to a booming in-swinger that's hit him flush on the toe- gone!
Will Walker- looked ok, not sure we need another fwd at this stage?
EVW- Drafted 2014 , 15 career games =injury prone.
Dom Tyson- WTF?
Curtis Taylor- another mid fwd with some X-factor. In the mix with Walker.
Bailey Scott- is one we can bank I believe.
Og Murphy - I have NFI tbh
T Murphy- looks to have stalled and we're going to be brutal with our rookies, could be gone.
T McKenzie- NFI tbh
B McKay- just wishing he's Tarrant's replacement doesn't make it so, is not travelling as well as some BF pundits think.
B Jacobs- perpetually injured.
Nathan Hrovat- is facing the chop I'd suggest
Lachlan Hosie- another mid sized fwd, who we will retain. In the mix with Walker & Taylor.
Kyron Hayden- if will alone equals success, he's already won. I think he'll be fine
Aaron Hall- hope he's ok as he has the outside game we need
Taylor Garner- drafted 2012, 40 games= injury prone, is in the mix with Walker, Taylor and Hosie
Majak Daw- can he return to his best which of course was for only one season, I think so, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't when you factor in what happened.
Joel Crocker- No idea at this stage and fair enough
T Campbell- ruck back up only.

Not trying to be down on the guys but yeah there isn't much and just maybe the guy I chatted with wasn't wrong? I suppose we chopped the coach and are 13th after being impressed with our own 9th placed finish in 2018. I do see the light at the tunnels end, but if we want a real change up we're going to need to offer one of our few A graders, and I doubt we'll do that.


Whens Rawlings start? He's the key imo.
The main thing I notice about that list is the lack of midfielders coming though outside of Scott and Hayden. Will Walker will make it and could be part of that mix, but otherwise it's pretty much 2 exciting half forwards, a few guns who seen perpetually injured and a bunch of inconsistent flankers most of whom won't make it.

Also agree with your concern regarding McKay- he hasn't fired a shot so far and after 3 years on an AFL list you'd want to start showing something outside of a few impressive preseason photos.
 
The main thing I notice about that list is the lack of midfielders coming though outside of Scott and Hayden. Will Walker will make it and could be part of that mix, but otherwise it's pretty much 2 exciting half forwards, a few guns who seen perpetually injured and a bunch of inconsistent flankers most of whom won't make it.

Also agree with your concern regarding McKay- he hasn't fired a shot so far and after 3 years on an AFL list you'd want to start showing something outside of a few impressive preseason photos.

Yep i just listed 21 players and you could argue that losing 13 of them tomorrow would not make an iota of a difference to how we perform in 2020 and beyond.

Am really looking fwd to how Rawlings and co see our list. With what he's apparently done at WCE, a lot I've mentioned would want their BS house re-payments well in check.
 
Yep i just listed 21 players and you could argue that losing 13 of them tomorrow would not make an iota of a difference to how we perform in 2020 and beyond.

Am really looking fwd to how Rawlings and co see our list. With what he's apparently done at WCE, a lot I've mentioned would want their BS house re-payments well in check.
Serious question, of those 13 players listed, how many of them might actually put in a big pre season thinking they might finally get a chance of some senior action next year?
 
Serious question, of those 13 players listed, how many of them might actually put in a big pre season thinking they might finally get a chance of some senior action next year?

maybe and I hope so- we're currently 13th after a 9th and 15th finish the previous 2 seasons. Plenty of work ahead of us.
 
Williams - Tarrant - Daw
Atley - Thompson -
- Cunnington - Polec
Thomas - Larkey - Wood
Zurhaar - Brown -

Goldstein - Higgins -

Int: Ziebell, Simpkin, Anderson, Pittard


...those guys look like locks when fit, but there are clearly some gaps. Yes, we can and will fill some of them with the likes of Garner, Dumont, MacMillan, McDonald, Ahern (as well as LDU, Scott, and Walker who will be steadily improving and have elite upside); but we also need to bring in some A grade talent if we hope to seriously contend. You can immediately see what slotting in Lachie Ash (1st pick) across half back, Tom Papley as a genuine small forward and Brad Hill on a wing would do to elevate that side.

How do we bring in these sort of guys without seriously compromising our draft position? Who do we trade to give us the means to bring in elite talent? We need to be doing everything we can to negotiate an early contract release for Rawlings, because it will take some real tactical list management to give Rhyce the list he needs to win our next flag.
 
A lot of the direction of the list will depend on Shaw’s game plan

We have good young talent together with some reliable older heads, i agree we do need more mid talent.

Our forward lines is strong, we’re short a backman that will break the lines.

I am concerned about our ruck stock for the future.
 
Thomas will play mostly as a mid next year. Zuurhaar also pinch hitting. Fast skilled rebound defender and athletic tall defender should be on the shopping list. Would trade either of Durdin or McKay on basis of no obvious attacking intent. Papley would fit in well. Strong rumours that he wants to play for Rhyce.
 
I don't think Walker is necessarily going to be a forward. He has the tricks and intelligence to be a midfielder or even a half back I reckon.

Well that would be awesome if true and I've no reason to doubt you. I'll take him as a half back , as we could do with one.


Williams - Tarrant - Daw
Atley - Thompson -
- Cunnington - Polec
Thomas - Larkey - Wood
Zurhaar - Brown -

Goldstein - Higgins -

Int: Ziebell, Simpkin, Anderson, Pittard


...those guys look like locks when fit, but there are clearly some gaps. Yes, we can and will fill some of them with the likes of Garner, Dumont, MacMillan, McDonald, Ahern (as well as LDU, Scott, and Walker who will be steadily improving and have elite upside); but we also need to bring in some A grade talent if we hope to seriously contend. You can immediately see what slotting in Lachie Ash (1st pick) across half back, Tom Papley as a genuine small forward and Brad Hill on a wing would do to elevate that side.

How do we bring in these sort of guys without seriously compromising our draft position? Who do we trade to give us the means to bring in elite talent? We need to be doing everything we can to negotiate an early contract release for Rawlings, because it will take some real tactical list management to give Rhyce the list he needs to win our next flag.

Interesting and kudos for having a crack, Thompson, Williams, Daw & Pittard all did well getting into your side. I think L Mac is ok and will be starting 22, it's about those around him that will help bring the best out of Luke.

I don't mind Dumont, but he's another lacking wheels. As I said earlier am really looking fwd to what Rawlings does.
 
Williams - Tarrant - Pittard
Atley - Thompson - McDonald
Hill - Cunnington - Polec
Zurhaar - Larkey - Wood
Ziebell - Brown - Papley

Goldstein - Higgins - Simpkin

Int: Thomas, Anderson, Davies-Uniake, (Ahern/Scott/Tyson/Walker/Garner/Vickers-Willis/MacMillan/Dumont/Daw/Hall/edit:Turner)
 
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