Player Watch Welcome to Hawthorn : Jai “Duke” Newcombe - 2022 AFLCA Best Young Player, extends to 2026!

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[KermitJagger]

He's more consistent than that group but so far hasn't had the massive, singular performance all of them have had this season.

It's coming though. Gather round wasn't far off it, but our other mids cashed in alongside him that day too.

Also, not sure if it's still the 'headf#$%*d by Hawthorn' mentality playing a part, but Chad Warner is smashing Duke in a 'which player would you take?' poll over on the polls board. Expected it to be a bit closer. Their career stats are amazingly similar to this point.

Sydney have been good, we haven't. Warner has been around a bit longer. I can understand why he's in front to the average AFL fan.

Might be bias but I reckon on size and strength alone that Jai has a higher ceiling than Warner, but that he's effectively 2 years of AFL development behind. Would love both though.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

He's more consistent than that group but so far hasn't had the massive, singular performance all of them have had this season.

It's coming though. Gather round wasn't far off it, but our other mids cashed in alongside him that day too.

Also, not sure if it's still the 'headf#$%*d by Hawthorn' mentality playing a part, but Chad Warner is smashing Duke in a 'which player would you take?' poll over on the polls board. Expected it to be a bit closer. Their career stats are amazingly similar to this point.

I don't think you can say he's been more consistent than Rozee, Anderson, LDU, Warner - they've all been consistently good this season.

Butters had a slow start, but from round four he's been the best of the lot.

All six of them are awesome players and it's hard to split them. Naturally their own fans would pick their own players, but it would be interesting to see how the rest of the league ranks them all at this point of their careers.

 

[H00t]

He's more consistent than that group but so far hasn't had the massive, singular performance all of them have had this season.

It's coming though. Gather round wasn't far off it, but our other mids cashed in alongside him that day too.

Also, not sure if it's still the 'headf#$%*d by Hawthorn' mentality playing a part, but Chad Warner is smashing Duke in a 'which player would you take?' poll over on the polls board. Expected it to be a bit closer. Their career stats are amazingly similar to this point.

A lot of it also involves last years performance where Warner was a big part of Sydney getting to a grand final then was the only guy to show up on the day. Also it’s a bigfooty poll, means absolutely nothing.

With these young guys there is so much more of their career left and some will reach high heights and some will peter out. The rankings themselves will become much clearer as these guys play more footy.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I don't think you can say he's been more consistent than Rozee, Anderson, LDU, Warner - they've all been consistently good this season.

Butters had a slow start, but from round four he's been the best of the lot.

All six of them are awesome players and it's hard to split them. Naturally their own fans would pick their own players, but it would be interesting to see how the rest of the league ranks them all at this point of their careers.

Perhaps not Rozee, but he's been more consistent week to week than those other 3. Those 3 have bigger individual performances to hang their hats on however.

It's greedy, but I want to see a 30 disposal, 3 goal game from Jai this year. He's capable.

He missed the elusive AFL quadruple double by only 2 marks in a game this year. It somehow went largely unnoticed. The base skills there for Jai. His ceiling at the moment is the only unknown as far as I'm concerned. It's high though.

 

[peetoo]

He's more consistent than that group but so far hasn't had the massive, singular performance all of them have had this season.

It's coming though. Gather round wasn't far off it, but our other mids cashed in alongside him that day too.

Also, not sure if it's still the 'headf#$%*d by Hawthorn' mentality playing a part, but Chad Warner is smashing Duke in a 'which player would you take?' poll over on the polls board. Expected it to be a bit closer. Their career stats are amazingly similar to this point.

Like when Sam Mitchell started to get serious plaudits when he became a west coast eagles player?

 

[toomanysquibs]

His ceiling at the moment is the only unknown as far as I'm concerned. It's high though.

I think he's like a more athletically gifted version of Sam Mitchell in that he's eventually going to get the very best out of himself in every direction possible. The trick with Jai right now is to look at what he's not doing well. The rest of the stuff he's going to get better and better at, and he'll eventually turn those weaknesses into strengths also (Sammy did, the only thing he really didn't improve on markedly was pace. But he improved in every other direction, and improved his agility and movement in traffic).

 

[cryptor]

Just give him the kickouts like Daicos.

Would get his disposals up but wouldn't help his rating points. The reason he's so highly rated by Champion Data is that when he gets the ball he makes things happen. Daicos makes things happen too, but not really from the kickouts.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Perhaps not Rozee, but he's been more consistent week to week than those other 3. Those 3 have bigger individual performances to hang their hats on however.

It's greedy, but I want to see a 30 disposal, 3 goal game from Jai this year. He's capable.

He missed the elusive AFL quadruple double by only 2 marks in a game this year. It somehow went largely unnoticed. The base skills there for Jai. His ceiling at the moment is the only unknown as far as I'm concerned. It's high though.

Disagree regarding the consistency (stats below). They have all had a fee games of 20 or below touches, bar Day and LDU, but he has missed games through injury.

Kind of amazing form lines given their age.

The Duke (21yrs 9mth):

Spoiler

19D
25D - 5M - 5CL
22D - 7M - 1.1G
15D
31D - 6M - 5T - 10CL - 1G
26D - 8M - 10T - 7CL
24D - 9CL - 2.1G
20D - 1G
26D - 5CL - 1.1G
24D - 5M - 9T - 7CL - 1G
31D - 9CL

Avg (11 games):
Disposals - 23.9
Marks - 4.55
Tackles - 4.73
Clearances - 5.73
Total Goals - 6.6

Warner (22yrs):

Spoiler

30D - 8T - 0.3G
15D - 4T
19D
30D - 5T - 9CL - 2G
26D - 3T - 7CL - 1.3G
19D
29D - 6T - 5CL - 1G
28D - 5M - 4T
25D - 7T
31D - 6M - 7CL - 1G
29D - 5T - 2.1G

Avg (11 games)
Disposals - 25.55
Marks - 3.18
Tackles - 4.27
Clearances - 4.73
Total Goals - 7.10

Anderson (22yrs 3mth):

Spoiler

17D - 6T - 1.1G
25D - 7CL
21D - 7CL - 1G
38D - 10T - 7CL - 1.1G
25D - 6M - 6CL - 2.1G
28D - 8M - 8CL
32D - 9M - 5T - 9CL - 1.1G
37D - 6T - 10CL
27D - 8CL
19D - 5T - 5CL
26D - 7CL

Avg (11 games):
Disposals - 26.82
Marks - 4.01
Tackles - 4.00
Clearances - 7.10
Total Goals - 7.8

LDU (23yrs 11mth):

Spoiler

32D - 5T - 11CL - 1.1G
30D - 7M - 5T - 10CL - 1.1G
30D
23D - 7CL
20D*
25D
29D - 8CL

* injured

Removing the game he was injured in, he's avg (6 games):
Disposals - 28.17
Marks - 3.33
Tackles - 3.50
Clearances - 6.83
Total Goals - 2.3

Butters (22yrs 8mth):

Spoiler

24D - 8M
18D
15D
27D
32D - 7CL - 1.1G
25D - 6T
27D
28D - 5M - 6T - 6CL
32D - 9M
41D - 6M - 10CL - 2.1G
32D - 5M - 1G

Disposals - 27.40
Marks - 4.64
Tackles - 2.55
Clearances - 4.18
Total Goals - 6.4

Rozee (23yrs 4mth):

Spoiler

23D - 6T - 1G
19D - 1.1G
28D - 5M - 6CL - 1G
20D - 1G
26D - 5M - 6T
29D - 6M - 7T - 2.1G
19D - 8T
29D - 5M - 1G
25D - 6CL
31D - 5M - 5T - 1G
27D - 7M - 6CL

Avg (11 games):
Disposals - 25.01
Marks - 4.18
Tackles - 4.55
Clearances - 3.55
Total Goals - 8.3

Day (21yrs 11mths):

Spoiler

22D - 8M
26D - 7CL
29D - 11M - 5CL
22D - 8T - 6CL
30D - 5M - 7CL - 1G
26D - 7CL - 1G
29D - 5CL
24D - 5M - 5CL
30D - 5M

Avg (9 games):
Disposals - 26.44
Marks - 5.22
Tackles - 3.89
Clearances - 4.89
Total Goals - 2.2

Totals:

Spoiler

Disposals:
28.17 - LDU
27.40 - Butters
26.82 - Anderson
26.44 - Day
25.55 - Warner
25.01 - Rozee
23.90 - Newcombe

Marks:
4.64 - Butters
4.55 - Newcombe
5.22 - Day
4.18 - Rozee
4.01 - Anderson
3.33 - LDU
3.18 - Warner

Tackles:
4.73 - Newcombe
4.27 - Warner
4.55 - Rozee
4.00 - Anderson
3.89 - Day
3.50 - LDU
2.55 - Butters

Clearances:
7.10 - Anderson
6.83 - LDU
5.73 - Newcombe
4.89 - Day
4.73 - Warner
4.18 - Butters
3.55 - Rozee

Scoreboard Impact:
8.3 - Rozee
7.10 - Warner
7.8 - Anderson
6.6 - Newcombe
4.6 - Butters
2.3 - LDU
2.2 - Day

Agree that Newcombe is definitely capable of a big 30 and 3 game. His hands are vice-like and he can really exploit his opponents in 1v1 marking sitatuons IMO. It's only a matter of time.

In terms of direct comparisons - I think Day plays a similar role in our side as Rozee plays for Port Adelaide.

 

[kirbatron]

Who are the Elite that your referring to that Jai is a tier below?
In my eyes he is the ELITE

Elite Tier
Petracca, Bont, JDG, Oliver, Neale, Cripps

Next Tier - established & emerging
Steele, Laird, Wines, Merrett, Danger (was in the top group but old now), Macrae, Walsh, Brayshaw, Mills, Butters, Mcluggage, Parish, Anderson, Smith

hes on his way to joining the above group along with Day.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Just give him the kickouts like Daicos.

Darcy Moore is their chief kickout taker. Daicos has done it the following times this season:

R1 - 2
R2 - 5
R3 - 5
R4 - 2
R5 - 5
R6 - 3
R7 - 5
R8 - 3
R9 - 5
R10 - 4
R11 - 2

41 in total over 11 games.

I reckon Newcombe will up his possession numbers naturally over the course of the season. He's definitely a high impact per possession midfielder though, as opposed to someone like Butters who plays more as an accumulator.

 

[KermitJagger]

Elite Tier
Petracca, Bont, JDG, Oliver, Neale, Cripps

Next Tier - established & emerging
Steele, Laird, Wines, Merrett, Danger (was in the top group but old now), Macrae, Walsh, Brayshaw, Mills, Butters, Mcluggage, Parish, Anderson, Smith

hes on his way to joining the above group along with Day.

I wouldn't have Neale or Cripps anywhere near the elite tier at the moment. Neither of their 2023 seasons warrant it.

Same with Steele, Wines, Smith in the below group. I'd almost put Danger back in the elite tier before I put Steele, Smith and Wines in the next tier.

 

[KermitJagger]

Darcy Moore is their chief kickout taker. Daicos has done it the following times this season:

R1 - 2
R2 - 5
R3 - 5
R4 - 2
R5 - 5
R6 - 3
R7 - 5
R8 - 3
R9 - 5
R10 - 4
R11 - 2

41 in total over 11 games.

I reckon Newcombe will up his possession numbers naturally over the course of the season. He's definitely a high impact per possession midfielder though, as opposed to someone like Butters who plays more as an accumulator.

Whether or not total disposals go up or down doesn't bother me so much, the fact that he's 6.4 disposals per turnover vs 4.9 last year is better. Don't count the disposals, make the disposals count.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Whether or not total disposals go up or down doesn't bother me so much, the fact that he's 6.4 disposals per turnover vs 4.9 last year is better. Don't count the disposals, make the disposals count.

Yes that's true of course, but more touches will likely equal more impactful disposals.

TBH I don't really care where exactly he gets the extra touches - be it contested possies dishing it off when he's being tackles or marks around the ground so he can use his penetrative kick. They will be important possessions regardless.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Elite Tier
Petracca, Bont, JDG, Oliver, Neale, Cripps

Next Tier - established & emerging
Steele, Laird, Wines, Merrett, Danger (was in the top group but old now), Macrae, Walsh, Brayshaw, Mills, Butters, Mcluggage, Parish, Anderson, Smith

hes on his way to joining the above group along with Day.

of course this isn't a serious exercise so it doesn't matter that you've "missed" a few

but i would almost consider Dawson in the elite tier, and Dunkley certainly in the next tier.

Duke is 100% having a better season than Wines so I would say he's pretty close if not already in that 2nd tier of star mid.

 

[KermitJagger]

of course this isn't a serious exercise so it doesn't matter that you've "missed" a few

but i would almost consider Dawson in the elite tier, and Dunkley certainly in the next tier.

Duke is 100% having a better season than Wines so I would say he's pretty close if not already in that 2nd tier of star mid.

If you look at the player ratings for most of the guys in that second tier, quite a few are sitting in the 100s. Mccluggage is as far back as 212 I think.

Even if you don't rate the player rating system, Newc is at 9 so it's not small potatoes.

 

[naysayer]

I wouldn't have Neale or Cripps anywhere near the elite tier at the moment. Neither of their 2023 seasons warrant it.

Same with Steele, Wines, Smith in the below group. I'd almost put Danger back in the elite tier before I put Steele, Smith and Wines in the next tier.

The stats will never get it right. That suggests Jack Macrea is on a tier above Caleb Serong and Matt Rowell, but you ask our mids to rank who they'd prefer to suit up with, and Macrea would be last. Good player, but every single statistical reading of his game is skewed by his huge possession count. Same algorithm would probably tell you Jake Lloyd was the competition's best defender.

 

[KermitJagger]

The stats will never get it right. That suggests Jack Macrea is on a tier above Caleb Serong and Matt Rowell, but you ask our mids to rank who they'd prefer to suit up with, and Macrea would be last. Good player, but every single statistical reading of his game is skewed by his huge possession count. Same algorithm would probably tell you Jake Lloyd was the competition's best defender.

Not really. That isn't based on player ratings, that's just a poster's opinion.

Player Ratings has Serong and Rowell a fair margin ahead of Macrae. It also doesnt rate Lloyd particularly highly either.

 

[naysayer]

Not really. That isn't based on player ratings, that's just a poster's opinion.

Player Ratings has Serong and Rowell a fair margin ahead of Macrae. It also doesnt rate Lloyd particularly highly either.

Well I'll be, maybe they're not such bluff old-fools after all.

 

[KermitJagger]

Well I'll be, maybe they're not such bluff old-fools after all.

There are some occasional weird over ratings or under ratings but generally the player rating system does a good job at measuring impact. It's actually quite harsh on accumulators generally, as you can lose ground for getting the ball and doing nothing with it.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Not really. That isn't based on player ratings, that's just a poster's opinion.

Player Ratings has Serong and Rowell a fair margin ahead of Macrae. It also doesnt rate Lloyd particularly highly either.

what's your source? the only one i can easily find is stats insiders which uses a different metric clearly

 

[KermitJagger]

what's your source? the only one i can easily find is stats insiders which uses a different metric clearly

Yeah that's a different model. The official AFL paid for Champion Data modelling isn't found anywhere official, but this site scrapes it on a weekly basis.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[peetoo]

Is covid era talent better not worse?

Any theories? Did they hit the gym etc, which playing footy normally gets in the way of?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Is covid era talent better not worse?

Any theories? Did they hit the gym etc, which playing footy normally gets in the way of?

Talent? Same vagaries as any other year.
Development? Less opportunities for scouting at club juniors football = more slip through the cracks.
Scouting? Less opportunities for scouting at elite U/18 level = more reliance on "judgement" calls.

Covid just introduced a 'fog of war' across the drafting landscape. Smart clubs and recruiters did well, others - less so.

 

[H00t]

2nd in the league by percentage for a player taking a mark from his inside 50’s.

Miers (47.5%), Duke (30.8%), Danger 30.0%, McCluggage (28.6%), Zorko (28.2%) is the top 5.

 

[m0zza]

What are people seeing that excites them? He looks average paced at best and skills seem average (gets under them too much). Ie same issues as our current AFL midfield but at vfl level. He’s a big unit for his age and a hard unit but his attributes seem that of a vfl player. Can he play anywhere else other than inside mid? He’ll need to. Maybe the club sees a lot of athletic upside in him if strip off a few kgs. Dunno.

End of day he’s a rookie pick so if you get 50 afl games out of them you’ve done well. But would have liked someone with either pace or skill that’s better matches AFL footy.

I was idly wondering how Jai slipped to the MSD
I couldn’t help but dredge this take up