Traded Adam Cerra traded to Carlton for pick #6 and F3

[freo_leo29]

Lmao at Bell playing hardball with Melbourne but accepting that from Carlton.

We have you Langdon for a steal though

 

[TylerDurden]

Do you just cruise around the Draft and Trade board mentioning the Buddy situation in every thread?

It's clearly an outlier example and not typical of the vast majority of trades (in fact it wasn't even a trade) done.

It's fairly irrelevant.

Do I?

It's just an example of player movement and how clubs quite often don't get value when said player walks.

Anyway, good luck with it. Don't worry, we know the feeling when good players walk.

 

[Yeti]

It's not that simple. Let's say he wants Richmond. Media are already saying they've pulled out as their cap is exploding and he wants $700k a year.

Let's say he just wants to come home.

Let's say North or Hawthorn can give him what he wants.

You haven't addressed anything in what I posted.

How is that any different to Tim Kelly? Tim Kelly nominated West Coast as he wanted to come home home.

West Coast gave him what he wants.

 

[TylerDurden]

You haven't addressed anything in what I posted.

How is that any different to Tim Kelly? Tim Kelly nominated West Coast as he wanted to come home home.

West Coast gave him what he wants.

Ah, West Coast could afford him.

 

[Freoforever86]

Still if a very firm opinion that people put far too much weight into draft picks over trading for good players.

it’s different when you have a clear n1 guy like Walsh or Rowell obv, but I’d rather go for a proven player over speculative picks any day. Plenty of top 10 busts in drafts too.

 

[raffrox]

Do I?

It's just an example of player movement and how clubs quite often don't get value when said player walks.

Anyway, good luck with it. Don't worry, we know the feeling when good players walk.

I don't know. It was a question.

You just mentioned it a few times as a catch all to your argument.

How I feel about a player walking out or not doesn't change the evidence that usually teams get significantly more for a player than the Hawks got for Buddy.

 

[TylerDurden]

I don't know. It was a question.

You just mentioned it a few times as a catch all to your argument.

How I feel about a player walking out or not doesn't change the evidence that usually teams get significantly more for a player than the Hawks got for Buddy.

Correct. So many things go into making a deal.

I mean, what you got for Weller was an absolute rort. Yet you won the Hill deal. Then the Dees get pick 2 for Frawley via FA.

Let's see how it plays out. He may realise he can't get Freo a decent deal, then decides to stay until FA.

 

[tiger_tough]

It's not that simple. Let's say he wants Richmond. Media are already saying they've pulled out as their cap is exploding and he wants $700k a year.

Let's say he just wants to come home.

Let's say North or Hawthorn can give him what he wants.

Are they? I haven't seen that written anywhere. The only person that's commented on it was Sam Edmund saying we don't have the capital. With Houli and Caddy likely gone and Riewoldt taking a big pay cut I'd say we could accommodate him if the club wanted to. $750k is too much anyway. Stupid money.

 

[H00t]

Still if a very firm opinion that people put far too much weight into draft picks over trading for good players.

it’s different when you have a clear n1 guy like Walsh or Rowell obv, but I’d rather go for a proven player over speculative picks any day. Plenty of top 10 busts in drafts too.

I’m of the other opinion. Teams have been handing out picks like candy for good players.

The reason the draft is so important is that you want to get great players. There is no to trade for them without handing over a mountain of picks and/ or players, and very few move through FA. Sure some draft picks might not work out but that’s all part of it.

Now a competing team might not want to take the risk and that’s fair, and to other teams the risk is more than worth it.

Cerra is already a very good player but he isn’t going to be the superstar that you hope to find with early picks in the draft. I can see a win now team overpaying though because he will be able to go from the moment he joins the team.

 

[Lore]

Poll up ^

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Cerra is already a very good player but he isn’t going to be the superstar that you hope to find with early picks in the draft. I can see a win now team overpaying though because he will be able to go from the moment he joins the team.

Let looks into this claim a bit. What can you get with picks 5, 6 and 7. Why 5, 6 and 7 because I think it provides enough space to take into account a club preferring someone else at the pick. So, what can you expect at pick 5,6 and 7.

I've tried to be impartial as possible which is difficult when Cerra is still so young but I've done my best to assign a ranking. I'd argue red is definitively worse then Cerra with no chance of that changing, yellow is close enough at this stage that its comparable and green he has no chance of catching.



So with my ranking, you have 7% chance of getting someone definitely better than Cerra at pick but a whopping 48% chance of getting someone worse. If you apply this, you should be willing to hand over pick 5 every day of the week for Cerra because there is a 48% chance you get a dud

 

[Blackhawk42]

Let looks into this claim a bit. What can you get with picks 5, 6 and 7. Why 5, 6 and 7 because I think it provides enough space to take into account a club preferring someone else at the pick. So, what can you expect at pick 5,6 and 7.

I've tried to be impartial as possible which is difficult when Cerra is still so young but I've done my best to assign a ranking. I'd argue red is definitively worse then Cerra with no chance of that changing, yellow is close enough at this stage that its comparable and green he has no chance of catching.

View attachment 1190255

So with my ranking, you have 7% chance of getting someone definitely better than Cerra at pick but a whopping 48% chance of getting someone worse. If you apply this, you should be willing to hand over pick 5 every day of the week for Cerra because there is a 48% chance you get a dud

Scrimshaw should be yellow. His performances this season have been very underrated outside of Hawthorn. He's tracking along beautifully.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Scrimshaw should be yellow. His performances this season have been very underrated outside of Hawthorn. He's tracking along beautifully.

Not going to turn it into a thread of other arguing on other players values/ability but you can include him if you want, doesnt make much of a difference to my point

 

[H00t]

Let looks into this claim a bit. What can you get with picks 5, 6 and 7. Why 5, 6 and 7 because I think it provides enough space to take into account a club preferring someone else at the pick. So, what can you expect at pick 5,6 and 7.

I've tried to be impartial as possible which is difficult when Cerra is still so young but I've done my best to assign a ranking. I'd argue red is definitively worse then Cerra with no chance of that changing, yellow is close enough at this stage that its comparable and green he has no chance of catching.

View attachment 1190255

So with my ranking, you have 7% chance of getting someone definitely better than Cerra at pick but a whopping 48% chance of getting someone worse. If you apply this, you should be willing to hand over pick 5 every day of the week for Cerra because there is a 48% chance you get a dud

Probably ends up somewhere between 20-30% better than Cerra. Obviously a lot water to still go under the bridge before it’s finalised.

To me it definitely depends on where the team is on the ladder and their own internal development. A team rebuilding gets more value trying to get a Franklin or a Pendlebury, especially when they are able to get more picks at the start of the draft as that increases their odds. A team competing takes Cerra every time because they know what he is and he will help them immediately.

Saying that I probably rate the draft higher than most. I think the clubs should be able to get a lot more value out of it than they do.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Scrimshaw should be yellow. His performances this season have been very underrated outside of Hawthorn. He's tracking along beautifully.

The kid is a jet.

 

[Polo342]

I Believe Cerra is worth an early first and early second round in terms of picks. People talking about PSD like it would actually happen. Id actually be curious about how many times it has in the past 15 years. With regards to Hawthorn supporters thinking he aint worth much. If Fremantle were to target Denver Grainger Barrass, what would he be worth? Keep in mind that Cerra has shown a lot more.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I Believe Cerra is worth an early first and early second round in terms of picks. People talking about PSD like it would actually happen. Id actually be curious about how many times it has in the past 15 years. With regards to Hawthorn supporters thinking he aint worth much. If Fremantle were to target Denver Grainger Barrass, what would he be worth? Keep in mind that Cerra has shown a lot more.

DGB isn't out of contract, so it's not that easy to compare.

No Hawthorn supporter should be thinking he isn't worth much btw. I think the general feel is that pick 2 on its own is too much, which I'm sure Fremantle supporters can understand.

IF he decides he wants to leave and IF he selects Hawthorn as his destination then the real hypothetical scenarios can begin.

 

[Polo342]

DGB isn't out of contract, so it's not that easy to compare.

No Hawthorn supporter should be thinking he isn't worth much btw. I think the general feel is that pick 2 on its own is too much, which I'm sure Fremantle supporters can understand.

IF he decides he wants to leave and IF he selects Hawthorn as his destination then the real hypothetical scenarios can begin.

This is a good answer here! I do believe that Pick 2 is probably a little to high. But are we actually putting to much value on drift picks as opposed to a player?

 

[new breed]

This is a good answer here! I do believe that Pick 2 is probably a little to high. But are we actually putting to much value on drift picks as opposed to a player?

Pick 2 would be great to have , Cerra is a quality player , good size goes under the radar at times .
reckon Denver Grainger-Barrass was the pick of last season he went pick 5 so at pick 2 the options are huge IF Cerra wants to go home .

 

[Slysh]

I Believe Cerra is worth an early first and early second round in terms of picks. People talking about PSD like it would actually happen. Id actually be curious about how many times it has in the past 15 years. With regards to Hawthorn supporters thinking he aint worth much. If Fremantle were to target Denver Grainger Barrass, what would he be worth? Keep in mind that Cerra has shown a lot more.

DGB is a contracted tall in his first season, Cerra is in his 4th season it is not comparable.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I Believe Cerra is worth an early first and early second round in terms of picks. People talking about PSD like it would actually happen. Id actually be curious about how many times it has in the past 15 years. With regards to Hawthorn supporters thinking he aint worth much. If Fremantle were to target Denver Grainger Barrass, what would he be worth? Keep in mind that Cerra has shown a lot more.

Def worth a late first

Issue is hawthorn/Kangaroos are preferred, you would have to settle with a second rounder + pick swaps.

I'm sure Freo would love him to go to Carlton/st Kilda so you could swap firsts or even. The dogs/Melbourne to get what he's worth. Issue with that is Cerra isn't going to go to a club where he's not going to get an opportunity to be a top 2 midfielder.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I Believe Cerra is worth an early first and early second round in terms of picks. People talking about PSD like it would actually happen. Id actually be curious about how many times it has in the past 15 years. With regards to Hawthorn supporters thinking he aint worth much. If Fremantle were to target Denver Grainger Barrass, what would he be worth? Keep in mind that Cerra has shown a lot more.

DGB is a first year super promising player, unless he went I want to go home now and you threw in something with Cerra, absolutely no chance we let go of a pick 6 KPP who's showed that he could lead our backline for 12 yeara

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Def worth a late first

Issue is hawthorn/Kangaroos are preferred, you would have to settle with a second rounder + pick swaps.

I'm sure Freo would love him to go to Carlton/st Kilda so you could swap firsts or even. The dogs/Melbourne to get what he's worth. Issue with that is Cerra isn't going to go to a club where he's not going to get an opportunity to be a top 2 midfielder.

Are you saying Cerra and 8 for pick 6? Is that what you mean by pick swaps?

 

[Polo342]

DGB is a first year super promising player, unless he went I want to go home now and you threw in something with Cerra, absolutely no chance we let go of a pick 6 KPP who's showed that he could lead our backline for 12 yeara

Wait so hold on your saying Cerra is worth a second round pick + swaps and your saying a first year player in DGB is worth more? Cerra has proven worth over 4 years!!! Surely your not actually saying that....

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Wait so hold on your saying Cerra is worth a second round pick + swaps and your saying a first year player in DGB is worth more? Cerra has proven worth over 4 years!!! Surely your not actually saying that....

The dudes questionable valuations of Cerra aside, him and DGB would be worth about the same I’d imagine.

 

[Polo342]

The dudes questionable valuations of Cerra aside, him and DGB would be worth about the same I’d imagine.

I agree they would. He is a very promising player. It seems that this is the classic case of under valuing another teams player and over valuing their own