2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[DynamiteDons]

How many players (excluding rookies) do people have under 10%?

5 for me. A 1-1-1-2 split.

I’ve got 8 under 10% on field at the moment

But if under 300k I’ve got 5

2 in Defence
3 in Mids
3 in Forwards

 

[VSTone]

What about getting poked in The Eye with a pointy stick ?? Can I pick that one ??

Some good value there!

 

[Thetrader15]

View attachment 824736
Some good value there!

$270k though...I don't think I'd have him at M5

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The more i think on it, the more im leaning to having more mid pricers to start with:

-split playerbase into 4 price segments: rookies, midprice, premo, uber premo
-we get a fixed number of trades per year
-we get a fixed number of trades to use per week.

the natural progression of a cash cow is:
rookie-> mid -> premo -> uber premo (slow burn cow)
rookie -> downgrade/upgrade premo (uber cow eg: sam walsh last year)

i split the cows into 2 because basically your grabing cash via a downgrade/upgrade scenario or you can trade up based on built up vale (ie: equity)
either way your looking at minimum 3-4 trades to get that uber premo.
timewise cows take 6-9 weeks to fatten.

season tactics (excluding injuries and forced trades)
weeks 1-3; fixing mistakes. sideways trading, getting in cows/premos
weeks 3-6: ?
weeks 6-9: cow cash grab. 2-3 cows upgraded
weeks 9-12: bye planning, 2-3 cows upgraded
weeks 12-14: bye weeks, team restructure if needed. 2-3 cows upgraded
week 15: full team.

so your basically upgrading 6-9 rookies by rnd 15. From experience, id lean towards 7. so thats 2, 3, 2 fwd, mid, back line onfield rookies.

mid pricers start at a higer base price. may take one less trade to reach premo. should fatten quicker (eg 4-7 weeks). should be ready to trade during that week 3-6 empty period

Theoretically it's very possible to get the best rookies for Round 1. If you basically nail your rookies, theres not much you can actually do in the first 3 weeks besides sideways trades. That reduces the risk of taking midpricers into the season. Out of the first 6 trades, say you need to, at worst fix two rookies and make one trade to fix a dropped rookie, that leaves you three mid pricers to fix. Assuming you hit at least 25% of yoiur mid pricers, whjich is conservative, that means you can take up to 4 into the seaosn pretty comfortably.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Happened with Noah Balta last year... maybe its a Richmond thing

It's a Richmond Forward thing! Red-line them all.

I look forward to one of:
L English, Cumberland, Ralphsmith, or Aarts being named.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Theoretically it's very possible to get the best rookies for Round 1. If you basically nail your rookies, theres not much you can actually do in the first 3 weeks besides sideways trades. That reduces the risk of taking midpricers into the season. Out of the first 6 trades, say you need to, at worst fix two rookies and make one trade to fix a dropped rookie, that leaves you three mid pricers to fix. Assuming you hit at least 25% of yoiur mid pricers, whjich is conservative, that means you can take up to 4 into the seaosn pretty comfortably.

The last 2 years running I've actually made my team worse in the first 3-4 weeks. Encourages completely reactional/emotinal trading despite the months of research that came prior.

Having 2x trades per week can be a curse at the start. I feel obligated to use them.

I wreck my own team in the space of the first month. I need to have more composure this year and perhaps consider not trading at all.

 

[JDWCE]

The last 2 years running I've actually made my team worse in the first 3-4 weeks. Encourages completely reactional/emotinal trading despite the months of research that came prior.

Having 2x trades per week can be a curse at the start. I feel obligated to use them.

I wreck my own team in the space of the first month. I need to have more composure this year and perhaps consider not trading at all.

This.

Feel like not using them is a waste and you end up ******* up your research..... when will we learn?

 

[4tune8]

The last 2 years running I've actually made my team worse in the first 3-4 weeks. Encourages completely reactional/emotinal trading despite the months of research that came prior.

Having 2x trades per week can be a curse at the start. I feel obligated to use them.

I wreck my own team in the space of the first month. I need to have more composure this year and perhaps consider not trading at all.

I like to concentrate on the BE's for the first 6 rounds, then begin upgrading and structuring for the byes.

 

[PAFC27]

Question - With no other R3's probablky playing R1 and making $$ important, why is Naismith only 3% owned, when he will probably make $200k by rd12.
Answer - Well he's a bit expensive but yeah, good point!

Play Naismith R2 who has wicked job security and handcuff him to Ceglar up forward whose got great job security and is allegedly #1 ruck this year. If he plays anything like he did towards the end of last he's a good chance for top F6. May be we to even drop a rookie with questionable job security up forward because of it

Just an idea off the top

 

[4tune8]

Question - With no other R3's probablky playing R1 and making $$ important, why is Naismith only 3% owned, when he will probably make $200k by rd12.
Answer - Well he's a bit expensive but yeah, good point!

Luke Jackson looks like getting a gig for the first 5 weeks or so.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Can't find any way to fit Naismith in.

If you're going down the risky NicNat/English path and you have Naismith at R3 for insurance.... then why not just cull Naismith down to a $170k rook and upgrade NicNat to a more reliable option?

Having Naismith sitting on the bench is effectively $110k doing nothing. The extra cash gen won't even be needed this year as we already get the +1 cash cow from R4.

If you're picking Naismith then go all in and have him at R2 with a Luke Jackson at R3 as cover... whats the worst that could happen?

 

[VSTone]

I like to concentrate on the BE's for the first 6 rounds, then begin upgrading and structuring for the byes.

I'd like to concentrate on BE's but injury coverage usually dictates my season.

 

[VSTone]

Can't find any way to fit Naismith in.

If you're going down the risky NicNat/English path and you have Naismith at R3 for insurance.... then why not just cull Naismith down to a $170k rook and upgrade NicNat to a more reliable option?

Having Naismith sitting on the bench is effectively $110k doing nothing. The extra cash gen won't even be needed this year as we already get the +1 cash cow from R4.

If you're picking Naismith then go all in and have him at R2 with a Luke Jackson at R3 as cover... whats the worst that could happen?

Naismith gets injured and Jackson gets managed... then you are right up the creek without a paddle!

 

[mezaire]

Luke Jackson looks like getting a gig for the first 5 weeks or so.

Personally I don't think they'll play him and if he does he'll only score 40-50.

 

[mezaire]

Play Naismith R2 who has wicked job security and handcuff him to Ceglar up forward whose got great job security and is allegedly #1 ruck this year. If he plays anything like he did towards the end of last he's a good chance for top F6. May be we to even drop a rookie with questionable job security up forward because of it

Just an idea off the top

Not a bad idea, could do the same with Patton.

 

[Thetrader15]

Personally I don't think they'll play him and if he does he'll only score 40-50.

Yeah, pass for me

 

[Ohh Ok]

How do we think O’Meara will go with the inclusion of Mitchell this season assuming that Worpel continues at a similar level as to how he finished the season

Feel like if he could improve on his floor from the last couple seasons he’d be in for a strong year. Owned by 0.54% at the moment, but obviously a risk with his injury history. Probably too awkwardly price to take up on though when you can pay an extra 40k for Coniglio

 

[TedDougChris]

View attachment 824736
Some good value there!

There is another POD gone !!!

 

[JDWCE]

How do we think O’Meara will go with the inclusion of Mitchell this season assuming that Worpel continues at a similar level as to how he finished the season

Feel like if he could improve on his floor from the last couple seasons he’d be in for a strong year. Owned by 0.54% at the moment, but obviously a risk with his injury history. Probably too awkwardly price to take up on though when you can pay an extra 40k for Coniglio

I think he is a good shout. Less chance of a tag this year with Titch and Worp on the improve. Has also played 21 and 20 games the last two years so injuries look to be behind him. Think he could go at 105. He is tempting me but as you say it's an awkward price point

 

[Benjo_]

Can't find any way to fit Naismith in.

If you're going down the risky NicNat/English path and you have Naismith at R3 for insurance.... then why not just cull Naismith down to a $170k rook and upgrade NicNat to a more reliable option?

Having Naismith sitting on the bench is effectively $110k doing nothing. The extra cash gen won't even be needed this year as we already get the +1 cash cow from R4.

If you're picking Naismith then go all in and have him at R2 with a Luke Jackson at R3 as cover... whats the worst that could happen?

Yeah agreed. Naismith has career averages of 63 and 58, so I can't see him producing high 60 scores especially it being over two years since he played his last AFL game. IMO it's getting fancy for the sake of it, especially pairing him up with Ceglar who comes with just as much risk.

 

[burge13]

First draft - some outlandish picks here (I think one will be questioned by many) but thoughts here? I figure forwards look the weakest line so why not try and 'finish' that first? Marsh decides a lot of mid pricers and rookies

 

[Neale4brownlow]

First draft - some outlandish picks here (I think one will be questioned by many) but thoughts here? I figure forwards look the weakest line so why not try and 'finish' that first? Marsh decides a lot of mid pricers and rookies

View attachment 824812

Looks good overall. Probably the glaring weaknesses are 4x mid rooks on ground (I much prefer the look of 3) and also a $170k rook on field up forward (Cavarra/Rankine/Cameron are all going to score minimal).

I'd be looking at:
1) Witherden or Blakely -> Rook (Marsh series will help decide who);
2) Whitfield -> cheaper fwd option. Like a Wingard type. Maybe you'll ahve enough for Walters;
3) Valente up to a more established mid (whatever you can afford after 1 and 2). Look at Curnow/Brayshaw/Gibbs/Jelwood for cheap. Or maybe even Coniglio if you have enough leftover.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Yeah i have a screenshot of a team i liked if i ever really mess my team up and can't fix it.

Just wait until some of your 'locks' trot out 50's

the 'maybes' score average 90's

and the 'never again' players score 180's

Rocky

 

[burge13]

Looks good overall. Probably the glaring weaknesses are 4x mid rooks on ground (I much prefer the look of 3) and also a $170k rook on field up forward (Cavarra/Rankine/Cameron are all going to score minimal).

I'd be looking at:
1) Witherden or Blakely -> Rook (Marsh series will help decide who);
2) Whitfield -> cheaper fwd option. Like a Wingard type. Maybe you'll ahve enough for Walters;
3) Valente up to a more established mid (whatever you can afford after 1 and 2). Look at Curnow/Brayshaw/Gibbs/Jelwood for cheap. Or maybe even Coniglio if you have enough leftover.

Yeah obviously alot will change once preseason games start and we get a gauge of roles

Midfielders should score best so is 4 on field really the worst long term solution? Obviously risky in terms of win/loss in leagues. If people have experience with this and know it doesn't work then it really needs to be considered changing. Any theory I roll out won't work when I get 4x R1 injuries anyway

 

[Cotchy9]

Thoughts on Lyons? 115 after the bye. 3 seasons in the 90’s. might be ready to breakout to 110 range