Traded Adam Cerra traded to Carlton for pick #6 and F3

[Elmer_Hauser]

Pick 8 is fair value for Cerra. The only way we wouldn't offer it up is if we needed it for Tom Green (unlikely to eventuate, but there is definitely noise).

It would take a lot more than pick 8 for Richmknd to try get Tom Green. A lot more.

 

[raffrox]

Go back and read my thoughts on Clark..

I've got no idea what your thoughts on Clark are but you were talking about Freo supporters as a group. So I'm replying to that by saying the trade value that Cats supporters as a group place on Clark is ridiculous.

 

[Sphynx]

Jesus Christ, ok then, opinions are like arseholes I suppose...

Freo fans, ploz dont make me go through the thread and delete a bunch of posts when you respond to this, just leave it

****ing hell you lot are touchy.

- He's a good young midfielder thats bordering on a great young accumulator. He's an excellent runner that gets up and down the ground as well as any young midfield besides Walsh at the moment. He reminds of a young Shane Crawford.
- He's not a great (not even a good) contested ball winner or clearance player, yet. He needs to improve on this.

Aren't you a mod? How about debating the topic at hand before handing out personal insults.

Sorry ~ Cerra and Brayshaw are the bestest and greatest young midfielders in the league? Happy?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

******* hell you lot are touchy.

- He's a good young midfielder thats bordering on a great young accumulator.
- He's not a great contested ball winner or clearance player, yet.

Aren't you a mod? How about debating the topic at hand before handing out personal insults.

Sorry, Cerra and Brayshaw are the best young midfielders in the league? Happy?

A) All I've said is everyone has an opinion, can you show me where there is a personal insult?
B) Debating the topic on Brayshaw is off topic so I have been a mod, let you keep the post up and encouraged Freo supporters not to respond to a post that is quite frankly ridiculous.

If you wish to discuss the rankings of Braysahw, Cerra and LDU further, you may take it to the 2017 draft thread review, in fact, I will get the ball started

 

[fargothegreat]

It would take a lot more than pick 8 for Richmknd to try get Tom Green. A lot more.

I agree. I didn't say just pick 8.

 

[fargothegreat]

Whether pick 8 is or isn't that would be a huge loss for Freo if that happened.

Caleb Serong was pick 8.

 

[raffrox]

Caleb Serong was pick 8.

So after another 4 years of development there's a chance that we might pick a player that might end up as being as good as Cerra.

Where do I sign!?!?!?!

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I've got no idea what your thoughts on Clark are but you were talking about Freo supporters as a group. So I'm replying to that by saying the trade value that Cats supporters as a group place on Clark is ridiculous.

I don't rate Clark I never have. I'd be happy with a late 2nd. That'd be a bonus.

 

[Polo342]

I cant believe a few of you are saying pick 8 would get the deal done. So fremantle will want a speculative player that could be a failure in pick 8 or Cerra. I know which one we are all taking. CERRA!

bottom line if Richmond want him it will cost both of the firsts they already have. If you had pick 3-5 it maybe different. But you dont.

 

[fargothegreat]

I cant believe a few of you are saying pick 8 would get the deal done. So fremantle will want a speculative player that could be a failure in pick 8 or Cerra. I know which one we are all taking. CERRA!

bottom line if Richmond want him it will cost both of the firsts they already have. If you had pick 3-5 it maybe different. But you dont.

If Cerra wants to leave you can't force him to stay you know?

 

[Ants]

I cant believe a few of you are saying pick 8 would get the deal done. So fremantle will want a speculative player that could be a failure in pick 8 or Cerra. I know which one we are all taking. CERRA!

bottom line if Richmond want him it will cost both of the firsts they already have. If you had pick 3-5 it maybe different. But you dont.

Pick #8 is unders, but most of the time young players go for unders if they're out of contract. Have a look at the price of Prestia, Tom Mitchell, Brad Hill (1st time), Steele, Yeo, Stringer, etc.

 

[fargothegreat]

Pick #8 is unders, but most of the time young players go for unders if they're out of contract. Have a look at the price of Prestia, Tom Mitchell, Brad Hill (1st time), Steele, Yeo, Stringer, etc.

I think Gold Coast being stupid enough to give them pick 2 for Weller has given Dockers fans unrealistic expectations about what they can get for an uncontracted player who requests a trade.

If you look at it this way, if it came down to it and the Dockers didn't accept pick 8 (should we have it), Richmond could walk Cerra through the national draft to pick 8. No club is going to use a top 10 pick on a player who doesn't want to play for them.

We could've done the same with Prestia when he requested a trade from the Suns. Hence, why the Suns couldn't do any better than our pick 6 (they didn't even really get that as we got a pick upgrade back our way).

 

[philthy05]

Pick #8 is unders, but most of the time young players go for unders if they're out of contract. Have a look at the price of Prestia, Tom Mitchell, Brad Hill (1st time), Steele, Yeo, Stringer, etc.

that’s a ridiculous list.

Steele yeo and Mitchell were not regular 1st 22 players for different reasons when they left.
whether you consider them right or now Prestia was likely marked down as he was sub 180cms and viewed as limited. Also already had signs of being injury prone back then (unless my memory is incorrect) and still got traded for a pick 6. Hill leaving hawks was just viewed as a ‘component’ of a team and just how good he would be without being in a top team full of great ball winners was questioned. Probably rightly when viewed with what we know now.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think Gold Coast being stupid enough to give them pick 2 for Weller has given Dockers fans unrealistic expectations about what they can get for an uncontracted player who requests a trade.

If you look at it this way, if it came down to it and the Dockers didn't accept pick 8 (should we have it), Richmond could walk Cerra through the national draft to pick 8. No club is going to use a top 10 pick on a player who doesn't want to play for them.

We could've done the same with Prestia when he requested a trade from the Suns. Hence, why the Suns couldn't do any better than our pick 6 (they didn't even really get that as we got a pick upgrade back our way).

I reckon Saints would jump on the chance to use pick 7 for example on Cerra, his main thing for leaving would be being in Melbourne. They'd back themselves in to keep him, would also complement their midfield nicely (pinging bird_man for comment as someone who is reasonable).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Pick #8 is unders, but most of the time young players go for unders if they're out of contract. Have a look at the price of Prestia, Tom Mitchell, Brad Hill (1st time), Steele, Yeo, Stringer, etc.

I think the only one who is remotely comparable in that list is Prestia and Cerra would be younger at the time of the trade, less injury prone and pick 6 is better than pick 8 (their quality is pretty spot on otherwise at the time I think). If we accept what you got for Saad I'd be pretty angry. If it was pick 8, i'd expect the Saints 2nd thrown in and it would still be unders but it is what it is, unless Bell is a real campaigner.

 

[bird_man]

I reckon Saints would jump on the chance to use pick 7 for example on Cerra, his main thing for leaving would be being in Melbourne. They'd back themselves in to keep him, would also complement their midfield nicely (pinging bird_man for comment as someone who is reasonable).

100% we would take him IMO.

 

[Polo342]

If Cerra wants to leave you can't force him to stay you know?

We cant force him to stay. But if we dont get satisfied we can let him walk to North Melbourne via Pre Season

 

[Polo342]

Any

I think Gold Coast being stupid enough to give them pick 2 for Weller has given Dockers fans unrealistic expectations about what they can get for an uncontracted player who requests a trade.

If you look at it this way, if it came down to it and the Dockers didn't accept pick 8 (should we have it), Richmond could walk Cerra through the national draft to pick 8. No club is going to use a top 10 pick on a player who doesn't want to play for them.

We could've done the same with Prestia when he requested a trade from the Suns. Hence, why the Suns couldn't do any better than our pick 6 (they didn't even really get that as we got a pick upgrade back our way).

Any Melbourne based club would take him

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Would happily give our 2022 first for him.

 

[tiger_tough]

We cant force him to stay. But if we dont get satisfied we can let him walk to North Melbourne via Pre Season

Youd be prepared to pass up a mid first round pick and lose him for nothing? Get real.

 

[Ants]

that’s a ridiculous list.

Steele yeo and Mitchell were not regular 1st 22 players for different reasons when they left.
whether you consider them right or now Prestia was likely marked down as he was sub 180cms and viewed as limited. Also already had signs of being injury prone back then (unless my memory is incorrect) and still got traded for a pick 6. Hill leaving hawks was just viewed as a ‘component’ of a team and just how good he would be without being in a top team full of great ball winners was questioned. Probably rightly when viewed with what we know now.

I think the only one who is remotely comparable in that list is Prestia and Cerra would be younger at the time of the trade, less injury prone and pick 6 is better than pick 8 (their quality is pretty spot on otherwise at the time I think). If we accept what you got for Saad I'd be pretty angry. If it was pick 8, i'd expect the Saints 2nd thrown in and it would still be unders but it is what it is, unless Bell is a real campaigner.

No list is going to be perfect as no two players are the same, or their circumstances exactly the same. Some of the arguments are a bit ridiculous though. Tom Mitchell showed far more in 2016 than Cera has this year (played 26 games and was one of the Swans best players of the finals). Prestia was older and had injury concerns, but also had had better seasons than Cerra has (to date) and was more proven. Yeo and Steele weren't as proven, but were younger.

Who are the examples of OOC young players going for considerably more? I can only think of two examples; Treloar, who was averaging more possessions, more goals, more tackles and more score involvements and O'Meara. Is there a single other example of a club paying significantly more than a top 10 pick for an OOC interstate midfielder in the last decade or so? And with O'Meara, sure he cost a single second plus pick #10, but that was a significant drop on his original draft cost. Where are the examples other than Treloar of OOC midfielders holding or increasing value?

Also, don't get hung up on pick #6 vs. #8. Teams trade what they have. If Richmond had've had pick #5 or #8 in 2016, those picks would have been the heart of the Prestia deal rather than #6. If Richmond's pick this year is #7 vs. #9, that will be the heart of the deal if he nominates them as well.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

No list is going to be perfect as no two players are the same, or their circumstances exactly the same. Some of the arguments are a bit ridiculous though. Tom Mitchell showed far more in 2016 than Cera has this year (played 26 games and was one of the Swans best players of the finals). Prestia was older and had injury concerns, but also had had better seasons than Cerra has (to date) and was more proven. Yeo and Steele weren't as proven, but were younger.

Who are the examples of OOC young players going for considerably more? I can only think of two examples; Treloar, who was averaging more possessions, more goals, more tackles and more score involvements and O'Meara. Is there a single other example of a club paying significantly more than a top 10 pick for an OOC interstate midfielder in the last decade or so? And with O'Meara, sure he cost a single second plus pick #10, but that was a significant drop on his original draft cost. Where are the examples other than Treloar of OOC midfielders holding or increasing value?

Also, don't get hung up on pick #6 vs. #8. Teams trade what they have. If Richmond had've had pick #5 or #8 in 2016, those picks would have been the heart of the Prestia deal rather than #6. If Richmond's pick this year is #7 vs. #9, that will be the heart of the deal if he nominates them as well.

I'm not expecting a Treloar deal but clearly that and Prestia are the benchmarks to base it off. Yes, you deal with what the club has and Richmond has a lot of picks to make a deal with, pick 8 is not pick 6, it would cost a decent 2nd rounder at minimum (likely a pick from 19 to 22 or something like that) to move up. There are definitely quite a few Freo fans that are going to be disappointed with what we get if he leaves but pick 8 wont be enough by itself I dont imagine.

If we want to go through each player
- Sydney borderline pushed Mitchell out because they couldnt pay him (I linked an article about it earlier)
- Lions got stiffed on Yeo due to the problems they had at the time and he was a much lower draft pick who hadnt shown much
- Steele hadnt shown THAT much and was pick 20 rather than pick 5 (still relevant when they that young, per the Boyd trade as an example).
- O'Meara's return was almost all on potential funnily enough because he couldnt get on the park with the janitorial staff GC were using as doctors at the time.

Funnily enough, I think every single player mentioned has gone for their value or unders on their eventual output because players traded young have a lot of growth left in them. Prestia and Treloar are the most relevant examples and while Freo cant trade players in for shit, we generally get fair value for those we lose

 

[fargothegreat]

We cant force him to stay. But if we dont get satisfied we can let him walk to North Melbourne via Pre Season

He won't go to the preseason draft though. It would be the national draft.

 

[fargothegreat]

Any

Any Melbourne based club would take him

You're delusional. So North and Hawthorn are going to take him ahead of some likely generational talent at the top of the order only for him to request a trade to Richmond again at the the end of the year?

 

[mrposhman]

I'm not expecting a Treloar deal but clearly that and Prestia are the benchmarks to base it off. Yes, you deal with what the club has and Richmond has a lot of picks to make a deal with, pick 8 is not pick 6, it would cost a decent 2nd rounder at minimum (likely a pick from 19 to 22 or something like that) to move up. There are definitely quite a few Freo fans that are going to be disappointed with what we get if he leaves but pick 8 wont be enough by itself I dont imagine.

If we want to go through each player
- Sydney borderline pushed Mitchell out because they couldnt pay him (I linked an article about it earlier)
- Lions got stiffed on Yeo due to the problems they had at the time and he was a much lower draft pick who hadnt shown much
- Steele hadnt shown THAT much and was pick 20 rather than pick 5 (still relevant when they that young, per the Boyd trade as an example).
- O'Meara's return was almost all on potential funnily enough because he couldnt get on the park with the janitorial staff GC were using as doctors at the time.

Funnily enough, I think every single player mentioned has gone for their value or unders on their eventual output because players traded young have a lot of growth left in them. Prestia and Treloar are the most relevant examples and while Freo cant trade players in for sh*t, we generally get fair value for those we lose

The thing is Prestia WASN'T traded for Pick 6. It was Pick 6 plus the Tigers future 2nd (which was 36) and we got back Pick 24. Now I know that the Suns wouldn't have expected our pick to be 36 as they wouldn't have expected us to win the premiership in 2017 but they didn't expect it to be lower than 24, so we therefore for Prestia and a pick upgrade for Pick 6. Hence why Pick 8 would be perfectly reasonable by itself in a comparison with the Prestia trade.

Bear in mind Prestia was a much more known quantity and impactful player than Cerra is showing right now. I know the potential for him to get better is there, but the facts are the facts as they are, Prestia when traded was a much more impactful player than Cerra is right now, so the potential is already priced in at Pick 9.

Show other examples if you want of other trades.

You are essentially saying that Cerra is more valuable than Neale was when you traded him. Neale you got Picks 6, 19 and 55 and traded Neale and Pick 30. This was marginally more than Gold Coast got for Prestia, but Picks 8 and 25 (if thats what we have) is more than both of these trades for a player with a much lower output at the time of trade.