Unofficial Preview GWS Giants v Adelaide Crows Sun 19/3/23 1.10pm AEDT (12.40pm SA time) at Giants Stadium

[Southerntakeover]

Absolutely hilarious watching the usual mouthbreathers in here just cutting Fogarty out of their posts from 12 months ago and replacing it with Thilthorpe. Same old meltdowns from people expecting every first rounder to be a Coleman or Brownlow medallist in their third year

The people who are defending Thilthorpe are the ones calling for his selection. They are by and large the same ones that were calling for Fogarty's selection and were entirely vindicated by events.

Telling people that they're replicating a correct position isn't exactly the withering smack down that you might think it is dingus.

 

[Carmo]

Unlike with crows players historically, TT is tracking right with his comparable peers from the same draft (JUH, LM) in terms of games played.

Half the problem is that since we have been so slow to get games into Himmelberg we now need to get games into him to see if he'll be any good before we discard. I certainly wouldn't want to have discarded Fog the season before only for another team to reap what we're now getting from him. It's the same with Berg, or even more critical even, since players with his height, tank and kicking skills and goal sense(weapons) are probably even more rare than for Fog.

 

[Southerntakeover]

On Thilthorpe, Nicks said at the moment he’s a better ruck than forward. The thing is wasn’t that the case we when we drafted him? Maybe he’s not the gun key forward but ruck? Where we drafted him is irrelevant to where he’s supposed to be playing.

He's shown more than enough as a key forward to justify investment there. He did that in his first game.

The club has always overweighted guaranteed present performance over the club's long term interest, and we have cobwebs in our trophy cabinet to show for it.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Unlike with crows players historically, TT is tracking right with his comparable peers from the same draft (JUH, LM) in terms of games played.

Half the problem is that since we have been so slow to get games into Himmelberg we now need to get games into him to see if he'll be any good before we discard. I certainly wouldn't want to have discarded Fog the season before only for another team to reap what we're now getting from him. It's the same with Berg, or even more critical even, since players with his height, tank and kicking skills and goal sense(weapons) are probably even more rare than for Fog.

Fogarty and Thilthorpe and Himmelberg are not in the same talent category. Two of them had pretty clear signs of elite traits from their first few games.

The key is not putting games into every player, its identifying the high talent cornerstones of your future team.

 

[CrowToon]

The people who are defending Thilthorpe are the ones calling for his selection. They are by and large the same ones that were calling for Fogarty's selection and were entirely vindicated by events.

Telling people that they're replicating a correct position isn't exactly the withering smack down that you might think it is dingus.

What? So when people are calling into question TTs hunger that is their way of advocating for his selection?

People questioned Fogartys commitment and many people suggested he was a bust. That isn't being vindicated.

Nice try.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Also, I'm not sure that the JUH comparison helps us. Not breaking into a grand final team in your rookie season is not the same as not getting games in a losing team, but they gave him the first six games last year, and after recalling him in round 14 he hasn't been out of the side yet. There doesn't seem to be any suggestion he'll be not selected again any time soon.

The biggest consecutive block of games we gave Thilthorpe last year was 4. I know there was some injury in there, but we're simply too prone to not selecting him.

 

[Southerntakeover]

What? So when people are calling into question TTs hunger that is their way of advocating for his selection?

People questioned Fogartys commitment and many people suggested he was a bust. That isn't being vindicated.

Nice try.

No, those people were wrong. And they're not the ones annoyed with our selection.

 

[Scorpus]

Also, I'm not sure that the JUH comparison helps us. Not breaking into a grand final team in your rookie season is not the same as not getting games in a losing team, but they gave him the first six games last year, and after recalling him in round 14 he hasn't been out of the side yet. There doesn't seem to be any suggestion he'll be not selected again any time soon.

The biggest consecutive block of games we gave Thilthorpe last year was 4. I know there was some injury in there, but we're simply too prone to not selecting him.

Four games is also the absolute maximum we gave Fogarty in a row for about 4 seasons

 

[1970crow]

Four games is also the absolute maximum we gave Fogarty in a row for about 4 seasons

junior players need to come in and perform straight away and are dropped as soon as they have a bad game. Experienced players get months to sort their form out. Our selection philosophy has always been arse backwards.

 

[Southerntakeover]

He didn't play for 9 weeks because of an error in week 1 last year. Way to build his confidence.

 

[Vader]

Four games is also the absolute maximum we gave Fogarty in a row for about 4 seasons

Nice story - pity it's not true.

It's true for his first 2 seasons - 2018 & 2019. In 2020 he played 7 of 8 games, from R10-18 (plus a bye). In 2021, he played 11 consecutive games, from R4-15 (bye, again), then the last 6 consecutive games of the season.

Try 2 seasons in a row, being his first 2 seasons in the AFL.

 

[Scorpus]

Nice story - pity it's not true.

It's true for his first 2 seasons - 2018 & 2019. In 2020 he played 7 of 8 games, from R10-18 (plus a bye). In 2021, he played 11 consecutive games, from R4-15 (bye, again), then the last 6 consecutive games of the season.

Try 2 seasons in a row, being his first 2 seasons in the AFL.

My bad, he didn't play six consecutive games in a row until round 9 2021 in his fourth season. Not five.

We gave him his first fifth consecutive game in the very final round of 2020

 

[Maddogmetro]

I'd say the Himm over Thilthorpe decision probably came down to this - they are expecting to win games this year, and have shifted focus from development to making finals. That means playing the forward that has the best form.

Not saying I agree, but that is likely the driver.

 

[FR0GGY]

I'd say the Himm over Thilthorpe decision probably came down to this - they are expecting to win games this year, and have shifted focus from development to making finals. That means playing the forward that has the best form.

Not saying I agree, but that is likely the driver.

Definitely, still a draft or so short imo.
Need and out and out midfielder, not one we try and turn into one.

 

[Golumless]

I'd say the Himm over Thilthorpe decision probably came down to this - they are expecting to win games this year, and have shifted focus from development to making finals. That means playing the forward that has the best form.

Not saying I agree, but that is likely the driver.

Even then, better off with Thilthorpe.

I doubt this has anything to do with winnimg/losing. Just that we've overthought Thillys skill set and are going to waste a period of time trying to make him a ruckman.

 

[Scorpus]

Logan McDonald and JUH both happily playing and contributing in teams with a realistic chance of finals

 

[huludicidal]

I think the selection of Himmelberg over Thilthorpe is a timely reminder to Riley that he needs to perform to earn his spot. Competition for spots tends to eliminate complacency.

I personally didn’t think a fully fit Thilthorpe would play 23 games this year with a fully fit Himmelberg playing 0, so let’s just see what happens in the next few weeks.

Who knows, maybe Thilly comes in for O’Brien instead and emerges in a different role? Or maybe he comes in for EH in a couple of weeks time and nails down his spot.

I don’t really have much concern with this, unless it drags out to Rd 8-10 and we still haven’t seen Thilthorpe at AFL level. I just don’t see that being a thing though, unless we’re sitting pretty in the top 4 with 0 injuries or something ridiculous.

As for the natural comparisons with Ugle-Hagan and L McDonald, both of them are still fringe options in their respective teams and Thilthorpe is still marginally leading the way in total AFL games played by this trio (despite being knocked around heavily by Covid and a couple of injuries), so I’d hold fire on the questions surrounding his development for another 6-12 months tbh.

Talls take time. Playing 22 (or 23 now) senior games in these early years isn’t usually the right answer. It’s a lot harder to argue with the way we developed Fogarty in his first few years now that it’s turned him into a guy who could legitimately win the Coleman in the next couple of years. Maybe if we’d played him relentlessly at AFL level, even when underperforming, this wouldn’t be the case? It’s not impossible.

Side note - I actually wonder if there might be some concerns on how Thilthorpe handles extreme heat too. I very clearly remember watching him closely in Round 1 last year against Freo (a 31 degree March day with no clouds in the sky), and he was absolutely blowing chunks the whole game, even in the first quarter. He was also absolutely terrible in that game, from start to finish. Might prefer the winter months I suspect!

Regardless, I would love to see Thilthorpe in our starting 22 by the Round 5 Gather Round game against Carlton, and I fully expect that we will.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Don't necessarily disagree with making TT earn a spot, and EH was definitely performing better in preseason.

BUT - how does Milera then get a game?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Remember when Carlton were terrible, and everyone criticised them for gifting games to young players allowing them to become complacent.

 

[Golumless]

Remember when Carlton were terrible, and everyone criticised them for gifting games to young players allowing them to become complacent.

Dunno if I'd use Carlton as an example for anything positive at the moment.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Dunno if I'd use Carlton as an example for anything positive at the moment.

Theyre not, that’s the point

 

[WheresGroomgone]

I'm very keen for tomorrow and I am hoping the preseason excitement doesn't collate with Power's predicted downfall according to their preseason.

Those of you getting their nuts tied up regarding the non -selection of Thriller calm down - he has been sub par since his first outstanding game - he needs games in the SANFL no question. What a load of crud saying he must play AFL - currently he isn't ready and how can you say playing him in the SANFL isn't helping, this is where we found him and where he can improve his confidence, hunger and skills.
Those of you who have coached, taught, supported or mentored would know no one person is the same and needs a varying approach/path - ask Izak what he thought of Stewie - I like all of you, want the big fella to reach great heights and at the moment a few games in the SANFL will not ruin him.

 

[Scorpus]

Remember when Carlton were terrible, and everyone criticised them for gifting games to young players allowing them to become complacent.

I think the common denominator in their first round busts isn't the amount of games played early, but talent ID.

These are all their first round picks since 2002 that have played more games than Thilthorpe early

Andrew Walker (33 games first two years)
Marc Murphy (35)
Bryce Gibbs (43)
Matthew Kreuzer (43)
Troy Menzel (26)
Jacob Weitering (42)
Charlie Curnow (27)
Sam Petrevski-Seton (42)
Lochie O'Brien (35)
Paddy Dow (39)
Sam Walsh (39)

Three out of the four fails (Petrevski-Seton, O'Brien and Dow + Menzel) were drafted under SOS. The rest except Menzel turned out pretty well. Kreuzer cut down by injury. You could probably make a case that Gibbs underperformed relative to draft position.

Many of the really bad duds (Kane Lucas, Shaun Hampson, Matthew Watson, Blaine Boekhorst, Liam Stocker) didn't play much early at all

 

[WheresGroomgone]

I think the common denominator in their first round busts isn't the amount of games played early, but talent ID.

These are all their first round picks since 2002 that have played more games than Thilthorpe early

Andrew Walker (33 games first two years)
Marc Murphy (35)
Bryce Gibbs (43)
Matthew Kreuzer (43)
Troy Menzel (26)
Jacob Weitering (42)
Charlie Curnow (27)
Sam Petrevski-Seton (42)
Lochie O'Brien (35)
Paddy Dow (39)
Sam Walsh (39)

Three out of the four fails (Petrevski-Seton, O'Brien and Dow + Menzel) were drafted under SOS. The rest except Menzel turned out pretty well. Kreuzer cut down by injury. You could probably make a case that Gibbs underperformed relative to draft position.

Many of the really bad duds (Kane Lucas, Shaun Hampson, Matthew Watson, Blaine Boekhorst, Liam Stocker) didn't play much early at all

Why are we discussing the development of young talent with a club who last made finals in 2013 by default?

the AFL and the world has changed since Bryce Gibbs was in his early years at CFC.

 

[huludicidal]

Don't necessarily disagree with making TT earn a spot, and EH was definitely performing better in preseason.

BUT - how does Milera then get a game?

I wouldn’t have played Milera either, even though he’s clearly being played on a half back flank, as an attacking option to set up forward thrusts with precision kicking. Parnell, rightly or wrongly, has only played in a back pocket so far so it’s not the “like for like” selection decision that we see with Thilthorpe vs Himmelberg.

Now, if it’s me, the defense would have looked like this:

Key defenders: Butts and Murray
Intercept defender: Doedee
Back pocket: Parnell
Half back flanks: Smith and Dawson
Lock down defender on Greene: Michalanney

The coaches clearly don’t see this as the structure though, because it’s absolutely not as simple as “Milera is a better back pocket than Parnell so we’ll pick him instead” - Milera won’t be going near the back pocket because he can’t defend one on one in a phone box and the entire world knows this. Side note, I was actually really impressed with Parnell’s one on one stuff in preseason, which makes his non-selection even more baffling to me.

I’d say in reality, we’ve settled on Smith to move to the back pocket and Milera to take Smith’s half back flank role. Meh. Maybe it works. Like clearly Milera is still very highly rated internally, and if we can get him going, he’s got some tricks that others just don’t possess.

But in terms of deserving to be picked for Round 1? Parnell is stiffer than Thilthorpe, and Milera is luckier than Himmelberg for mine.