- Thread starter
- #226
Apologies if someone has pointed this out, but 0.75 to the power of 9 is about 7%.
Who is the arseiest team in history prior to Collingwood 2022?
- Thread starter iameviljez
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They're very different discussions. In all the discussion about the relative weightings of the dynasty teams, I've barely referenced winning margins and percentage. The rationale for my weightings are:
1. Number of games won
2. Longevity
3. Strength of opposition
I have stated earlier we are not talking about a super era here.
Collingwood's record against the top teams, both in games won and percentage, stacks up against the best of them. The knock on Collingwood is that we haven't beaten the bottom teams by as much as the other top teams have. Now that would be a problem if we hadn't won enough games to qualify for top 4 due to our performances against the bottom teams, but right now we have and are sitting in second position on the ladder.
I'm pretty comfortable to state that based on what I've seen this year, Geelong are clearly the favourites, but Collingwood are right there in the mix with the next rung of teams.
We're getting a great run for our money this year again as Collingwood supporters. As a team who have played in one in every three Grand Finals since the beginning of time, we're overdue given we haven't appeared in one since 2018.
“Probability” arguments are a very slippery slope because of inherent selection bias. If you multiply Geelong’s odds in their last 11 matches you get somewhere around $44 - depending on which agency - or around a 2% chance they win all 11. Are we supposed to believe that that is a fluke too?
Yeah just realised my calcs in recent posts were way off
Need to revisit high school maths! It's been a while...
Still, the core concept of "they've won a lot of games that could've gone either way, so their ladder position flatters them" doesn't rely on any maths at all
- Feb 19, 2020
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Yes
- Thread starter
- #232
We were very lucky in games against Richmond, the Dogs (about 2 months ago) and the recent one against Port Adelaide.
It's not skating on our luck to the same extraordinary extent as Collingwood's recent run, but I reckon if you were to roll the dice on those three games in a row ten times, you'd probably get a Geelong clean sweep only once or twice.
- Apr 10, 2017
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As much as it pains me to say it, and against what I thought of them ( and Geelong ) at the start of the year, they have earned the right to some respect, and proved many wrong in the process ( including me ).
Lucky things tend to happen to those who work hardest at it.
No think you guys are the team to beat at this stage although if the Pies form continues into the finals they could be the team you could be playing on that last Saturday in September - however once the finals start it’s a complete reset and anything can happen however if you finish in the top 2 then there’s a very good chance you could take home the chocolates.
- Sep 14, 2005
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I don’t see a scenario where we wouldn’t play the Cats in the first 3 weeks unless we finish top 3, which would involve us winning the remaining 2 games.
- Thread starter
- #236
If we finish first and you go out in straight sets from fifth, third or second, and we win our QF, it could happen
- Sep 3, 2019
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It literally cant happen if we go out in straight sets
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- #238
- Sep 3, 2019
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Yeah sorry i misread. I think well be playing you guys week 1 FWIW
mcgarnacle
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 2, 2003
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Geelong kick straight and they win the 2008 GF. What's your point? They finished 4 wins ahead of second blitzing teams every week and then couldn't get it done when the heat was on.
Collingwood are getting it done under pressure. This will hold them in good stead when it ******* matters, and it has mattered just about every ******* week!
Bring on Sunday. It'll be fantastic!
- Thread starter
- #241
The point is that Melbourne not kicking straight is outside, largely, of Collingwood’s control.
I think people should start watching games of football instead of looking at stats sheets to determine who should and shouldn't have won the match.
The way last Friday night's game evolved was that Melbourne got out to an early lead, with Collingwood working harder for longer to reel them in and take control of the game.
Interestingly, there is a distinct pattern of this in-game trend for most if our recent wins, which is certainly preferred to the alternative which we experienced in our round 3 match against Geelong.
- Sep 14, 2005
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If you watch that first half again, Melbourne didn’t miss that many gettable shots. Outside Gawn’s howlers (which is stock standard), the 3 goal margin was fair. I think people are simply looking at some of the stat differentials and automatically assuming the Dees should’ve been further infront because of that. General flow of the game in their i50s though did not see them miss that many easy shots where they deserved to be more goals infront.
Well I don't think they are luckier than anyone else, they certainly weren't lucky in 2018 in that last minute.
I thought I saw better pressure ever put on Melbourne the other night than anyone else in the comp. It looked like Premiership day pressure.
Dees a top outfit!!!
Got!GOT!
Every time they went near the ball. That is a need , and they were all into it.
So 11 straight, and lots close wins? Says says to me , the closeness that is,
Was anything BUT luck!!
They have improved out of sight, and luck has nothing to do with it, and the coach doesn't look at all, like someone who takes things for granted, or someone who thinks its done and dusted.
I think they are all well aware of what is needed, and the big Tree, is playing like he was born to it.
- Sep 3, 2019
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The most arsey team in history is Hawthorn. Lucky under a kick prelim wins, umpire based and injury based to their opponents.
Than the 3 game streak again decided by umpiring in 2016, fluked top 4.
Collingwood are winning close ones mostly through belief. That last 5 minutes was outstanding Vs Melbourne.
Than the 3 game streak again decided by umpiring in 2016, fluked top 4.
Collingwood are winning close ones mostly through belief. That last 5 minutes was outstanding Vs Melbourne.
Collingwood increasingly controlled the 2nd half but Melbourne should've been much further in front at the half.
The half time score flattered Collingwood and masked the extent to which Melbourne was winning the play.
I knew that was a Geelong supporter, an outrage!!!!!!!!
Not sure if anyone has mentioned it or not and it is made less ‘Arsey’ by the fact that the team in 8th finished 3 wins and a bit of percentage behind them, but in 2016 in addition to stringing together 4 finals wins - one of them by a kick - the Dogs won 5 games that year by 10 points - wins of 10 (they kicked the last 3 goals of the game), 8, 4, 4 (kicked a goal with 50 seconds to play) and 3 (scores level with 8 minutes to play), another where they were leading by 3 with 4 minutes to play and kicked 2 goals in red time.
No flag is Arsey it’s a stupid premise but in a bizarro world they could have easily missed the finals.
Tells you a bit about their fortitude as much as anything.
No flag is Arsey it’s a stupid premise but in a bizarro world they could have easily missed the finals.
Tells you a bit about their fortitude as much as anything.
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