- Sep 26, 2017
- 26,761
- 44,093
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Rumour GFC 2018 Player Trading, Drafting, FA, Rumours, and Wish lists - PT3
- Thread starter dazbroncos
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
I disagree with the vast majority of the commentary on WB. Buzz is at least 8 games ahead of Gardner atpit.
So do I.
Buzza is still ahead of the curve the club would have plotted.
Tonight, if weather (and the late change fetish) do not intervene is a big opportunity for Wylie. A good one here and the leading edge of the curve swings up after a flatline for most of 2018.
Gardner can play. The MC however must have their reasons for not debuting the kid when he was in good form as a KPD last year.
Have we been linked to Roughead?
I found this article thought provoking ...
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...t/news-story/dc0cfbd30c5f199c6e1d962f7b2cd9a4
Reid said the Crows were open to all options given their stated ambition to recruit local players.
“You have to weigh up every option,” he said.
“Live trading will likely come into play, so we are still working out the mechanics of that as well.
“There could be three years worth of picks, so not only what you hold this year but 2019 and 2020 picks as well, so there is a lot to take into consideration.
“In the past you crossed your fingers and hoped a player dropped (to your position in the draft order).
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...t/news-story/dc0cfbd30c5f199c6e1d962f7b2cd9a4
Crows are going to go flat out to get as many of the sa boys as possible... and it sound like even if its costs them future draft picks from 2019 and 2020 they will do what ever they have to do.
I would say that with Kelly we have been thinking very much about 2018... but perhaps with futures available from 2 years ahead we should aim for two future first round picks... short term pain but long term a lot of options.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...t/news-story/dc0cfbd30c5f199c6e1d962f7b2cd9a4
Reid said the Crows were open to all options given their stated ambition to recruit local players.
“You have to weigh up every option,” he said.
“Live trading will likely come into play, so we are still working out the mechanics of that as well.
“There could be three years worth of picks, so not only what you hold this year but 2019 and 2020 picks as well, so there is a lot to take into consideration.
“In the past you crossed your fingers and hoped a player dropped (to your position in the draft order).
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...t/news-story/dc0cfbd30c5f199c6e1d962f7b2cd9a4
Crows are going to go flat out to get as many of the sa boys as possible... and it sound like even if its costs them future draft picks from 2019 and 2020 they will do what ever they have to do.
I would say that with Kelly we have been thinking very much about 2018... but perhaps with futures available from 2 years ahead we should aim for two future first round picks... short term pain but long term a lot of options.
- Apr 9, 2015
- 5,641
- 9,549
- AFL Club
- Geelong
- Other Teams
- Melbourne Renegades
If we managed to get 2 first round picks for him could potentially trade one for key forward like Wright or a ruckman. While still being able to get someone from the draft.
It’d be very tempting but draft picks are so hit and miss I’d rather we got a player for Kelly if he goes.
Geelong give Pick 12 and Kelly
Freo give pick 5 and Darcy
That could work for geelong already getting a ruck and a higher pick for a potential star (obviously actual picks will be determined).
But Geelong could get creative and trade the freo pick for a player and later pick.
Cats trade pick 5 to the suns for Wright and pick 17. The suns could then pick up the King twins.
Mahlepi
Cancelled
PICKS ARE OVER RATED
carlton picked curnow with pick 12, their third pick, and he is their best selection
carlton picked curnow with pick 12, their third pick, and he is their best selection
Picks are not over rated ..they are collateral.. its simply an order of choice.. You may say the draft is over rated compared to being in mature talent but picks... .
Nope... was just saying as he's looking elsewhere possibly.
catempire
Premium Platinum
They are definitely overrated. People expect to get the best possible outcome from a pick and underrate the certainty of a player as a known quantity.
whats new we disagree..
catempire
Premium Platinum
Get better opinions then!
CatTricks
Norm Smith Medallist
Have it on pretty good authority that Taylor will pull the pin at the end of the season.
He is really struggling with this foot injury.
He is really struggling with this foot injury.
picks aren't overrated, getting a 10 year player is a lot more valuable than getting a 5 year player, it also costs more to bring a player over than to retain one (of course you are going to get plenty of failures but getting a gun kid makes up for it)
a team that is in the window should trade picks for players but all other teams should be getting picks
we should go hard at accumulating the best picks we can for the future because our window is well and truly shut, we are 10 years from a flag
we have well over a dozen list cloggers that need to be turned over in the next few years, we dont want to be replacing most of them with pick 60+
a team that is in the window should trade picks for players but all other teams should be getting picks
we should go hard at accumulating the best picks we can for the future because our window is well and truly shut, we are 10 years from a flag
we have well over a dozen list cloggers that need to be turned over in the next few years, we dont want to be replacing most of them with pick 60+
catempire
Premium Platinum
Quintessential overrating of picks. No recognition of the uncertainty of the draft.
Why you are the one who is wrongGet better opinions then!
catempire
Premium Platinum
I’m never wrong, just ask me.
Narkle was pick 60. Smedts a first rounder.
We need a lot of picks in draft but I think we are better taking more in the 25-45 range than a couple in 1-25 range.
I would trade out our first round again if the right player or the right combination of lower picks is offered.
There is a team on here of that mindset you are only the HBF..you have admitted error's in the past.. its just that it only happens once in a blue moon.
The key to the statement that "picks are over rated" or not... one must establish how doe we value them and who do you feel over rates them to the point that they are universally over rated.
Imo.. that is my "opinion" ...Picks are not over rated .. the concept of the draft is. Anyone picking from a group of players would always like to have the earliest choice. Thats what draft pick are. You have the school aganist the wall..you are one of the capt. do you want to pick 1st.. or pick after everyone else has 17 picks.
The draft pool is what that is over rated.. Happens every year.. next year is a super draft. This kid is a gun. I ask what has he proved..and against who..and in what system. It would be interesting to see what would happen the AA side got to play an AFL side.. I know they have played a VFL side but not quite the same.
I doubt very much you trade Kelly for P60 because picks are over rated so any pick is OK
catempire
Premium Platinum
I don’t know that we are that far apart.There is a team on here of that mindset you are only the HBF..you have admitted error's in the past.. its just that it only happens once in a blue moon.
The key to the statement that "picks are over rated" or not... one must establish how doe we value them and who do you feel over rates them to the point that they are universally over rated.
Imo.. that is my "opinion" ...Picks are not over rated .. the concept of the draft is. Anyone picking from a group of players would always like to have the earliest choice. Thats what draft pick are. You have the school aganist the wall..you are one of the capt. do you want to pick 1st.. or pick after everyone else has 17 picks.
The draft pool is what that is over rated.. Happens every year.. next year is a super draft. This kid is a gun. I ask what has he proved..and against who..and in what system. It would be interesting to see what would happen the AA side got to play an AFL side.. I know they have played a VFL side but not quite the same.
I doubt very much you trade Kelly for P60 because picks are over rated so any pick is OK
To illustrate my point: I reckon if you did a straw poll of 100 footy fans on whether they would prefer Tim Kelly or pick 10 in this year’s draft you’d get ~70% choosing pick 10. Yet on sheer mathematical probabilities Kelly should be the choice there. He gives you a very high probability of ~100 quality games. The expected number of total career games from pick 10 is 87. High quality games from pick 10 would be more like 20-30. You might get Dangerfield but you might get Nathan Freeman.
That’s what I mean by overrating picks. People think they are more certain than they are.
But that is a simplistic way of looking at it.
Tim Kelly is almost 24, he probably has 3-4 years of very good football and another few years of average football
The first question should be is our club a realistic chance of winning a flag in the next 4 years? if the answer is no then go to the draft
2nd question if answering yes to the first, do we need a player like Kelly or do we have other needs?
3rd question can we afford him in our salary cap?
How many clubs are left? WCE, Melbourne, Adelaide, Port, Richmond, GWS, which of those can afford him? Richmond probably need a ruck/chf more, GWS might not need him
Pick 10 might be a dud, but you are mostly paying for time value (more time to build a list to win a flag)
if finishing as high as possible was all that mattered then you'd pick Kelly every time for pick 10, but winning a flag is what matters so for most clubs you want the chance of a 10 year player who you can retain for under market value
catempire
Premium Platinum
For Geelong you’d pick Kelly 10 out of 10 times. Even Carlton or Brisbane should favour Kelly.
I agree, would be happy to trade our first for multiple picks or future picks just because we have so many list cloggers that we need to try develop some players so our list is stronger in the future.
We will have plenty of higher picks when we are forced to play more kids and drop down the ladder.
Don't want to be stuck playing geriatrics and guys like Murdoch/Menegola/Kolo/Guthries/Gregson in the coming years because we only have only really late draft picks and perennially injured players.
no way
we are 10 years from a flag and Carlton/Brisbane are at least 5 years away
Brisbane maybe because like Sydney they need to finish high for memberships but as far as winning a flag they would pass on Kelly
catempire
Premium Platinum
No team is ten years from a flag. This is a flawed view that clouds much of what you post.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
