Who will be better in 2024? Hawthorn or Essendon?

[Mojo]

Who's going to tell him we traded one in?

Shhh.. I wouldn't brag about that one.

 

[owen87]

Shhh.. I wouldn't brag about that one.

I suppose we can't all snag Mabior Chol.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I suppose we can't all snag Mabior Chol.

Not to say it’s going to happen, but I remember when Wright was a no-good pick up from the Suns once too.

I like that Chol has owned his disappointing career to date and is keen to make the most of it.

 

[owen87]

Not to say it’s going to happen, but I remember when Wright was a no-good pick up from the Suns once too.

I like that Chol has owned his disappointing career to date and is keen to make the most of it.

I'm really looking forward to Round 1 for the heavyweight McKay vs Chol matchup.

 

[Caligo]

I'm really looking forward to Round 1 for the heavyweight McKay vs Chol matchup.

Won't happen will it? McKay will take Lewis I think. (Assuming all of mckay, Lewis and chol play)

Lewis kicked 3 on mckay last time they met.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Essendon have a more talented list, have recruited better this off-season, are further ahead in their development and have a better coach. They were already 4 wins and 10% better than the Hawks in 2023. Spanked them by 10 goals h2h.

Why is this a thread?

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Essendon have a more talented list, have recruited better this off-season, are further ahead in their development and have a better coach. They were already 4 wins and 10% better than the Hawks in 2023. Spanked them by 10 goals h2h.

Why is this a thread?

No one knows for sure yet which team recruited better this season.

I feel like Hawthorn traded for needs/holes in their list but Essendon arguably had a better national draft haul.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

No one knows for sure yet which team recruited better this season.

I feel like Hawthorn traded for needs/holes in their list but Essendon arguably had a better national draft haul.

No point commenting on the draft yet.

All but certain McKay, Gresham, Duursma and Goldstein will have more impact than Chol, Ginnivan, Gunston and D’ambrosio. Especially next year.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

No point commenting on the draft yet.

All but certain McKay, Gresham, Duursma and Goldstein will have more impact than Chol, Ginnivan, Gunston and D’ambrosio. Especially next year.

Goldstein is cooked and Gresham is absolutely flakey

Chol and Ginnivan will have a very significant impact for the Hawks I think

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Goldstein is cooked and Gresham is absolutely flakey

Chol and Ginnivan will have a very significant impact for the Hawks I think

Hawks are at that point where reserves players from other clubs will have a big impact for them. But I doubt they’ll be better than the Essendon group.

 

[hawkman]

Essendon have a more talented list, have recruited better this off-season, are further ahead in their development and have a better coach. They were already 4 wins and 10% better than the Hawks in 2023. Spanked them by 10 goals h2h.

Why is this a thread?

Were they even the better team by the 2nd half of the year? After round 9 both teams has 6 wins Hawthorn had a percentage of 95 Essendon 81

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Were they even the better team by the 2nd half of the year? After round 9 both teams has 6 wins Hawthorn had a percentage of 95 Essendon 81

6 wins, 8 losses and a percentage of 95 is not bad at all, given how inexperienced the side was.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawks are at that point where reserves players from other clubs will have a big impact for them. But I doubt they’ll be better than the Essendon group.

Red Bull will be disappointed you didn’t do the line.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Were they even the better team by the 2nd half of the year? After round 9 both teams has 6 wins Hawthorn had a percentage of 95 Essendon 81

The season is 24 rounds long, no point looking at sections of the year to suit a narrative.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Red Bull will be disappointed you didn’t do the line.

I have no idea what this means but as a mod you need to do better and stick to the thread topic.

 

[hawkman]

The season is 24 rounds long, no point looking at sections of the year to suit a narrative.

Would have thought Round 15-24 form is more relevant to how a team is going to look the following year than Round 1-10 form

 

[JayJ20]

Would have thought Round 15-24 form is more relevant to how a team is going to look the following year than Round 1-10 form

Not really.

Carlton had a horrible end to 2022 as did GWS yet both made the prelim.
St Kilda had a horrible second half in 2022 and made finals in 2023.

Conversely, Fremantle and Richmond had strong second halves in 2022 yet had a poor 2023.

Focusing on sections of the year is pointless because there are many factors that impact form, including off-season trades, natural development, injuries etc.

 

[peetoo]

Were they even the better team by the 2nd half of the year? After round 9 both teams has 6 wins Hawthorn had a percentage of 95 Essendon 81

Would not surprise if Essendon start better, but slow down and the hawks improve over the year. Last few year bear this out

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not really.

Carlton had a horrible end to 2022 as did GWS yet both made the prelim.
St Kilda had a horrible second half in 2022 and made finals in 2023.

Conversely, Fremantle and Richmond had strong second halves in 2022 yet had a poor 2023.

Focusing on sections of the year is pointless because there are many factors that impact form, including off-season trades, natural development, injuries etc.

That might all be true, but Hawkman’s post is absolutely correct in specific reference to Hawthorn.

Our head of footy Rob McCartney put it on the record last summer that for all the doom about how we’d “gutted the midfield” that they had all the confidence based on their internal metrics that the midfield would start slowly, but then the side would improve after the midway mark and surprise a few.
Lewis being injured early really added to that, but by the last third of the year the midfield had become a strength and Hawthorn was a different side.

 

[JayJ20]

Were they even the better team by the 2nd half of the year? After round 9 both teams has 6 wins Hawthorn had a percentage of 95 Essendon 81

Most of Essendon's percentage was lost vs GWS and Collingwood. Essendon's percentage was 99.1% heading into round 23.

Also, I had a look at Hawthorn's wins in the second half and it isn't really that impressive to be claiming that they'll significantly improve (at least more than Essendon).

Beat Collingwood who they always beat. Beat them 14 out of the last 17 times. Pushed them in 2022 to lose by 4 points in a year Collingwood were 2 points away from a grand final. Still didn't help Hawthorn the following year.
Beat Bulldogs who lost to West Coast at home the next round.
Beat Brisbane at the MCG who they always beat. Hawthorn won the last 4 games. Brisbane haven't beaten Hawthorn since 2019 despite finishing top 4 (either ladder or the end of the year) every year since and Hawthorn finishing bottom 6. Doesn't mean much for next year.
Beat North, which literally every team from round 2 to round 24 did.
Smashed by Port, Gold Coast and Carlton.

Essendon in comparison have had a bad end to an otherwise decent year. Losses above 50 points:

Essendon:
Collingwood 70
Geelong 77
GWS 126

Hawthorn:
Melbourne 54
Port 55
Essendon 59
Carlton 60
Gold Coast 67
Fremantle 69
Sydney 81
Geelong 82

That's 3 uncompetitive games against good teams to 8 uncompetitive games against average to good teams.

The two anomalies in Essendon's 126 point loss to GWS and Hawthorn's 116 point win vs a terrible West Coast puts a blanket on the real gap between the two teams in 2023. Both won't be great in 2024, but I don't think Hawthorn will be that good like I don't think Essendon will either.

 

[Caligo]

Most of Essendon's percentage was lost vs GWS and Collingwood. Essendon's percentage was 99.1% heading into round 23.

Also, I had a look at Hawthorn's wins in the second half and it isn't really that impressive to be claiming that they'll significantly improve (at least more than Essendon).

Beat Collingwood who they always beat. Beat them 14 out of the last 17 times. Pushed them in 2022 to lose by 4 points in a year Collingwood were 2 points away from a grand final. Still didn't help Hawthorn the following year.
Beat Bulldogs who lost to West Coast at home the next round.
Beat Brisbane at the MCG who they always beat. Hawthorn won the last 4 games. Brisbane haven't beaten Hawthorn since 2019 despite finishing top 4 (either ladder or the end of the year) every year since and Hawthorn finishing bottom 6. Doesn't mean much for next year.
Beat North, which literally every team from round 2 to round 24 did.
Smashed by Port, Gold Coast and Carlton.

Essendon in comparison have had a bad end to an otherwise decent year. Losses above 50 points:

Essendon:
Collingwood 70
Geelong 77
GWS 126

Hawthorn:
Melbourne 54
Port 55
Essendon 59
Carlton 60
Gold Coast 67
Fremantle 69
Sydney 81
Geelong 82

That's 3 uncompetitive games against good teams to 8 uncompetitive games against average to good teams.

The two anomalies in Essendon's 126 point loss to GWS and Hawthorn's 116 point win vs a terrible West Coast puts a blanket on the real gap between the two teams in 2023. Both won't be great in 2024, but I don't think Hawthorn will be that good like I don't think Essendon will either.

That is a really expansive attempt to avoid hawthorn hammering both grand finalists. Well done.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Except the Hawks have no actual quality ruckman, functional foward line and a backline and defence that is way too reliant on a 29 year old James Sicily.

Essendon are no world beaters but got far less holes on this list than Hawthorn.

I expect them to be a 3 or 4 win better team than Hawthorn again next season

I’ll bite.

Reeves is quality, his tap work is as good as any in the comp and for me personally I rate pure tap work as the most important part of a ruck. And his other parts of his game will continue to improve, he’s huge for the midfield.

The forwardline looks good with Lewis, Breust, Ginnivan, Moore just to name a few with Chol, Gunston, Watson, MacDonald & Butler the others

And of course Hawthorn are reliant on their captain and best player but their backline isn’t short of talent.

Hardwick, Weddle, Jiath, McCabe, Mitchell

On top of Impey, Scrimshaw, Sicily & Blanck + Amon is playing there this year.

Hawthorn have a strong midfield and a pretty good forwardline with a growing defense. They’ll be competitive in 2024 and will make finals over the next 2 seasons.

 

[JayJ20]

That is a really expansive attempt to avoid hawthorn hammering both grand finalists. Well done.

Is it false though? How many years have Hawthorn supporters been quoting about beating sides like Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood? For years. Hawthorn always beats good sides and they will mostly likely do so next year (very likely to be Collingwood and Brisbane outside of QLD again). Has it lifted Hawthorn out of the bottom 6? No.

Beating good teams you always beat as a bottom side doesn't mean much when you get thrashed by average sides like Gold Coast and Fremantle.

I know Essendon comfortably beating Melbourne, Carlton and GWS in Melbourne means nothing for next year. What matters is how competitive a team is throughout the 24 rounds. That is a true marker of a team on the rise. Adelaide are a perfect example of a team on the rise.

In short, I don't expect either team to be good, but I believe Essendon has the more experienced and advanced list. Will it translate to a higher finish? Likely, but not definitely.

 

[Caligo]

Is it false though? How many years have Hawthorn supporters been quoting about beating sides like Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood? For years. Hawthorn always beats good sides and they will mostly likely do so next year (very likely to be Collingwood and Brisbane outside of QLD again). Has it lifted Hawthorn out of the bottom 6? No.

Beating good teams you always beat as a bottom side doesn't mean much when you get thrashed by average sides like Gold Coast and Fremantle.

I know Essendon comfortably beating Melbourne, Carlton and GWS in Melbourne means nothing for next year. What matters is how competitive a team is throughout the 24 rounds. That is a true marker of a team on the rise. Adelaide are a perfect example of a team on the rise.

In short, I don't expect either team to be good, but I believe Essendon has the more experienced and advanced list. Will it translate to a higher finish? Likely, but not definitely.

I agree that hawthorn for a little while now have been better the better our opponents are, and have really struggled against mid range and even weaker teams. Consistency is a real problem for us, and being so young only makes that harder. Hopefully this is the year we start to show that intent against every team and not just the very best.

I am not at all sure we will though.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Most of Essendon's percentage was lost vs GWS and Collingwood. Essendon's percentage was 99.1% heading into round 23.

Also, I had a look at Hawthorn's wins in the second half and it isn't really that impressive to be claiming that they'll significantly improve (at least more than Essendon).

Beat Collingwood who they always beat. Beat them 14 out of the last 17 times. Pushed them in 2022 to lose by 4 points in a year Collingwood were 2 points away from a grand final. Still didn't help Hawthorn the following year.
Beat Bulldogs who lost to West Coast at home the next round.
Beat Brisbane at the MCG who they always beat. Hawthorn won the last 4 games. Brisbane haven't beaten Hawthorn since 2019 despite finishing top 4 (either ladder or the end of the year) every year since and Hawthorn finishing bottom 6. Doesn't mean much for next year.
Beat North, which literally every team from round 2 to round 24 did.
Smashed by Port, Gold Coast and Carlton.

Essendon in comparison have had a bad end to an otherwise decent year. Losses above 50 points:

Essendon:
Collingwood 70
Geelong 77
GWS 126

Hawthorn:
Melbourne 54
Port 55
Essendon 59
Carlton 60
Gold Coast 67
Fremantle 69
Sydney 81
Geelong 82

That's 3 uncompetitive games against good teams to 8 uncompetitive games against average to good teams.

The two anomalies in Essendon's 126 point loss to GWS and Hawthorn's 116 point win vs a terrible West Coast puts a blanket on the real gap between the two teams in 2023. Both won't be great in 2024, but I don't think Hawthorn will be that good like I don't think Essendon will either.

That’s a pretty flippant disregard for what actually took place in 2023, and the reasons why Hawthorn were so poor early in the year. See my post above yours.

Better yet, Hawthorn were 9th in the comp for Quarters won from Round 10 onward, and in that time we played 9 games against the eventual finalists and ended the Dogs chances.

On top of that, there are these metrics below that showed Hawthorn were a different side in the backend of the year to the one that got smashed by Cats, Swans, Port and whoever else.