Prediction Round 17: Changes Vs North Melbourne + pre-match discussion

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go_the_dockers

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Gawn won 54.5% of his hitouts with 9 to advantage from 36 hitouts total.

Darcy won 33.3% of his hitouts with 6 to advantage from 16 hitouts total.

Both with 4 clearances each.

ignoramus I think the stats back up your thoughts. Darcy has a really good hitout to advantage ratio - when he wins it, it's often to advantage.
The two free kicks against were costly.
He needs to work out a way to stop them.
 

Dockeroo

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Pearce will be needed for the monster key forwards. Hawkins, Dixon, Lynch etc. It’s possibly Logue could handle them based on how he plays on JK, but we don’t know that yet. Would have no faith in any of our other KPDs containing these guys in a big final.
For that reason AP is an automatic starter.
 

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Dockeroo

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I think Hamling is a top player and is still ahead of Cox for me in our defensive mix. I just think Pearce is a bit better. He was AA level before the injury last year.
I keep thinking of how Tom Lynch ripped Geelong to shreds in the second half of the prelim final last year. Effectively he won them the flag in those two quarters as the grand final was a joke.
In addition, Collingwoods lack of a proper key forward cost them the prelim final last year against an inferior GWS (mihocek disappeared into thin air that day).
Even though the traditional KPF is considered a bit less essential in the modern game by some, it seems in recent years they are still the game breakers in big finals.
When we hopefully reach those big games in the next few years, we will need (a) our own Key forward to be the difference in a tight final (Tabs and hogan tracking ok here, less faith in Lobb) and (b) a KPD who will prevent the Hawkins/Lynch equivalent kicking 4 goals in a half on us.
For me, AP is our best placed defender to do that.
 

Joao

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I am actually pretty concerned about fatigue now. Another 5 day break with bulk travel the day of the game and we haven't managed our squad at all through the congestion.

Prepare the melt thread, I'm tipping North.
 

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wild side

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I think Hamling is a top player and is still ahead of Cox for me in our defensive mix. I just think Pearce is a bit better. He was AA level before the injury last year.
I keep thinking of how Tom Lynch ripped Geelong to shreds in the second half of the prelim final last year. Effectively he won them the flag in those two quarters as the grand final was a joke.
In addition, Collingwoods lack of a proper key forward cost them the prelim final last year against an inferior GWS (mihocek disappeared into thin air that day).
Even though the traditional KPF is considered a bit less essential in the modern game by some, it seems in recent years they are still the game breakers in big finals.
When we hopefully reach those big games in the next few years, we will need (a) our own Key forward to be the difference in a tight final (Tabs and hogan tracking ok here, less faith in Lobb) and (b) a KPD who will prevent the Hawkins/Lynch equivalent kicking 4 goals in a half on us.
For me, AP is our best placed defender to do that.
Hope I'm wrong but Pearce just doesn't have the body for the rigours of AFL
 

wayToGo_

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I am actually pretty concerned about fatigue now. Another 5 day break with bulk travel the day of the game and we haven't managed our squad at all through the congestion.

Prepare the melt thread, I'm tipping North.
We've been saying that for a few rounds now and it hasn't happened. Mundy was saying the other day that he felt really good even with 4 day breaks. Seems the short quarters makes a big difference to recovery. Not saying we aren't a decent chance to lose but they finished strong last week, so I can't see a reason not to be ok for 4 qtrs this weekend.
 

Alfonz

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The two free kicks against were costly.
He needs to work out a way to stop them.
It would be nice if his opponent was treated the same. I've lost count of the amount of times Darcy gets pinged for a free, but his opponent does the same thing and nothing happens. Ruck frees are usually complete bollocks, considering both players are infringing at almost every ruck contest.
 

Sweetback

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We've been saying that for a few rounds now and it hasn't happened. Mundy was saying the other day that he felt really good even with 4 day breaks. Seems the short quarters makes a big difference to recovery. Not saying we aren't a decent chance to lose but they finished strong last week, so I can't see a reason not to be ok for 4 qtrs this weekend.
Wonder if the shorter quarters would be good for someone like A Pearce as well.
 

mightymouse75

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It would be nice if his opponent was treated the same. I've lost count of the amount of times Darcy gets pinged for a free, but his opponent does the same thing and nothing happens. Ruck frees are usually complete bollocks, considering both players are infringing at almost every ruck contest.
He needs to be able to read the umpiring & draw kicks as well
 

Joao

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We've been saying that for a few rounds now and it hasn't happened. Mundy was saying the other day that he felt really good even with 4 day breaks. Seems the short quarters makes a big difference to recovery. Not saying we aren't a decent chance to lose but they finished strong last week, so I can't see a reason not to be ok for 4 qtrs this weekend.
Sure we have done well but these are humans, they definitely have a limit. Several teams have played woefully this year with the travel the day of the game too.

I think if we can last the 4 quarters we win but I certainly don't think its anywhere near a given.
 

Fat Nyfe

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I am actually pretty concerned about fatigue now. Another 5 day break with bulk travel the day of the game and we haven't managed our squad at all through the congestion.

Prepare the melt thread, I'm tipping North.
I have a similar feeling, we've just played 3 games in 10 days. Young side with a lot of travel and not much recovery time, would not be surprised at all if we look a bit lethargic.

I think the odds are about right at 1.50 vs 2.50, favourites but certainly not unloseable for us and Freo tends to dole out these reality checks from time to time.
 

BStaff17

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I am actually pretty concerned about fatigue now. Another 5 day break with bulk travel the day of the game and we haven't managed our squad at all through the congestion.

Prepare the melt thread, I'm tipping North.
Wont be easy especially when you throw in we have to be up at 5am to get a flight from cairns to brisbane.

Then bus it down to carrara.

Even Mundy said he has never had to fly on the day of the game before so it will be a unique preparation.

Jlo seems to be a no excuses coach and wont use it if we lose. But certainly a danger and something to be wary of
 

Square Peg

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Wont be easy especially when you throw in we have to be up at 5am to get a flight from cairns to brisbane.

Then bus it down to carrara.

Even Mundy said he has never had to fly on the day of the game before so it will be a unique preparation.

Jlo seems to be a no excuses coach and wont use it if we lose. But certainly a danger and something to be wary of
Jesus why can't they fly direct cairns to gold coast? Bloody AFL.
 
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