Prediction Changes: Round 11 vs Hawthorn + Pre-match discussion

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Paracleet

Emotion is not going to get the job done..
Jun 30, 2011
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Yeah, but from what I've seen this year, we are significantly better with him playing more forward than in the middle.

A 50/50 split seems to be the way to go at the moment and we cant have 40-50% of the game with all 4 of them forward.
40% at the highest I reckon. The most on ground time he's spent forward was last week and that was a fair bit less than 1/2 the game. I think it'll be the same today.

You notice him when he's there but thinking back I'd say he spent nearly all of the 2nd and 3rd quarters on the ball, as well as spurts in the first and last.

Anyone got stats on this?
 

Paracleet

Emotion is not going to get the job done..
Jun 30, 2011
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BTW based on studious observation of the radar and dem feels: It may not rain at all this evening beyond some brief sprinkles.
 

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Gimme the Fyfe

Debutant
Sep 6, 2011
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BTW based on studious observation of the radar and dem feels: It may not rain at all this evening beyond some brief sprinkles.
Can I ask, where abouts did you hear the forecast?

Just saw a 100% probability of 15-33mm according to the Bureau of Meteorology website.

 

ubiquitous226

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Nov 26, 2018
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Can I ask, where abouts did you hear the forecast?

Just saw a 100% probability of 15-33mm according to the Bureau of Meteorology website.

That's for the whole day, this is for the evening.

Screenshot_20200810_160606.jpg
 

Joao

Brownlow Medallist
May 2, 2017
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Context Context Context.

This years draft predictions is based on evidence and all draft reports have said the same thing.

My “prophetic statements” are based on draft experts Views and what clubs have already said. Plus, the lack of second year players in last year’s championship confirms what the reports are saying.

With regards to Valente what evidence apart from his junior career do you have that he will be a gun.

Here’s my evidence.

Valente was drafted at pick 32 and slipped from being a projected first rounder.

This year we have a large injury list but he has been only named as emergency.

Other younger or same age players have gotten a game this year ie Sturt, Frederick, Serong, and Young.

We don’t have data, match reports, or vision for Valente in the WAFL this year.

We do have unconfirmed reports from the club that Valente is highly rated.

Therefore, I don’t understand how people can write him off or say he will be gun.
The context is judging a player yet to debut but at least has many positive reports from inside a club they actually train and play reserves at.

The other is judging a whole group on the same thing with less information at an earlier stage with little to no training information. Ludicrous to think it is somehow any better. Just because loads of people do it and you recycle "expert" opinions doesn't make it any less rubbish and the fact that paid professionals consistently get it wrong should make that obvious.

Nobody should be or is saying he is a definite bust nor should they be recommending a 5 year million dollar deal, those on here are simply responding to the significant praise shown towards Valente since his draft year until now.
 
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Johnny Dalmas

Club Legend
Oct 16, 2015
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Hogan seems to be available this week and played back in a scratchie this morning. Seems we REALLY like Fyfe forward
And so we should. Fyfe deep forward is a great outcome for the team. He doesn't lose outright too many 1-on-1 battles and so he demands a good defender. That means Tabs & Lobb (and anyone else) get a less good defender.

Or: Tabs doesn't kick 4 goals if Darcy Moore can give him his undivided attention.
 

Johnny Dalmas

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The context is judging a player yet to debut but at least has many positive reports from inside a club they actually train and play reserves at.

The other is judging a whole group on the same thing with less information at an earlier stage with little to no training information. Ludicrous to think it is somehow any better. Just because loads of people do it and you recycle "expert" opinions doesn't make it any less rubbish and the fact that paid professionals consistently get it wrong should make that obvious.

Nobody should be or is saying he is a definite bust nor should they be recommending a 5 year million dollar deal, those on here are simply responding to the significant praise shown towards Valente since his draft year until now.
I've never known a guy who is yet to debut 18 months into his career get so much praise. It could means he is going to be an out-and-out champ who has just had to bide his time because on injury and a crazy COVID interrupt season. Of course, it could mean that he isn't going to be the player he was hyped up to be before the draft.

I just worry that if he is going to be good, then why did Serong debut ahead of him. And why is he behind Blakley in the midfield depth chart. And how come he can't force Match Committee's hand to find him a role ahead of Colyer or, earlier, Banfield.

Perhaps I just overthink this stuff. Wouldn't be the first time!
 

WilloTree

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Sep 16, 2015
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And so we should. Fyfe deep forward is a great outcome for the team. He doesn't lose outright too many 1-on-1 battles and so he demands a good defender. That means Tabs & Lobb (and anyone else) get a less good defender.

Or: Tabs doesn't kick 4 goals if Darcy Moore can give him his undivided attention.
Darcy Moore was sh*t last week. Massively over-rated on what I've seen.
 

WilloTree

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I've never known a guy who is yet to debut 18 months into his career get so much praise. It could means he is going to be an out-and-out champ who has just had to bide his time because on injury and a crazy COVID interrupt season. Of course, it could mean that he isn't going to be the player he was hyped up to be before the draft.

I just worry that if he is going to be good, then why did Serong debut ahead of him. And why is he behind Blakley in the midfield depth chart. And how come he can't force Match Committee's hand to find him a role ahead of Colyer or, earlier, Banfield.

Perhaps I just overthink this stuff. Wouldn't be the first time!
I'll have a go -
Serong will be an out and out gun. Demanded to be picked and we can see why. Valente not in the same class.
Blakely was also demanding a game through excellent match sims, prac matches and training commitment/attitude. Blakely has runs on the board and he's also in his prime physically.
Colyer and Banfield play different roles to Valente.

It's a good problem to have when you have midfield depth. It doesn't necessarily mean Valente's a bust, just that there's finally some competition for spots.

p.s. Tom North will be a bit worried though.
 
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eastfreo75

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 11, 2011
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The context is judging a player yet to debut but at least has many positive reports from inside a club they actually train and play reserves at.

The other is judging a whole group on the same thing with less information at an earlier stage with little to no training information. Ludicrous to think it is somehow any better. Just because loads of people do it and you recycle "expert" opinions doesn't make it any less rubbish and the fact that paid professionals consistently get it wrong should make that obvious.

Nobody should be or is saying he is a definite bust nor should they be recommending a 5 year million dollar deal, those on here are simply responding to the significant praise shown towards Valente since his draft year until now.
Can you explain why Sturt signed a two extra year in May 2019 and Valente is still uncontacted? Sturt didn't play a single AFL at that stage.

Action speak louder than words. If he is as good as you say, why isn't he in the team?

Serong, Brayshaw, Cerra, and Young all played early.

Sorry mate, but Valente isn't in the same class as the players above.

Blakely, and Acres have played in front of him. Therefore, he is down the pecking order in a midfield is developing.
 

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Quokka

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I've never known a guy who is yet to debut 18 months into his career get so much praise. It could means he is going to be an out-and-out champ who has just had to bide his time because on injury and a crazy COVID interrupt season. Of course, it could mean that he isn't going to be the player he was hyped up to be before the draft.

I just worry that if he is going to be good, then why did Serong debut ahead of him. And why is he behind Blakley in the midfield depth chart. And how come he can't force Match Committee's hand to find him a role ahead of Colyer or, earlier, Banfield.

Perhaps I just overthink this stuff. Wouldn't be the first time!
Gotta mention Viv Michie, three years on the list and played one game right at the end. Coming back from injury he was killing it in the WAFL but it wasn't until he moved to Melbourne that we all accepted that maybe he wasn't being held back he just might not have been good enough.
 

Righteo

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Gotta mention Viv Michie, three years on the list and played one game right at the end. Coming back from injury he was killing it in the WAFL but it wasn't until he moved to Melbourne that we all accepted that maybe he wasn't being held back he just might not have been good enough.
Technically it was half a game
 

Scham

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Gotta mention Viv Michie, three years on the list and played one game right at the end. Coming back from injury he was killing it in the WAFL but it wasn't until he moved to Melbourne that we all accepted that maybe he wasn't being held back he just might not have been good enough.

Quite a few used to get fired up about Ballard not getting more of a go too.
 

Joao

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May 2, 2017
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I've never known a guy who is yet to debut 18 months into his career get so much praise. It could means he is going to be an out-and-out champ who has just had to bide his time because on injury and a crazy COVID interrupt season. Of course, it could mean that he isn't going to be the player he was hyped up to be before the draft.

I just worry that if he is going to be good, then why did Serong debut ahead of him. And why is he behind Blakley in the midfield depth chart. And how come he can't force Match Committee's hand to find him a role ahead of Colyer or, earlier, Banfield.

Perhaps I just overthink this stuff. Wouldn't be the first time!
Put a line through last year, he was in such bad shape physically they brought him back through the WAFL reserves IIRC. Not only that it spilled into this year and he hasn't had a proper preseason.

Serong is clearly a cut above and I have no problem with that. Can easily make the argument that he is our 3rd best mid already. Blakely we have all seen play quality midfield games in the past so I also don't have a problem with the idea he is ahead. If North or Banfield get a game in as a midfield before him, I'll concede the point.

I don't think it takes much analysis to recognise that Valente wouldn't make a good pressure forward (which is exclusively where those two have played). You might as well ask why he didn't ruck when Darcy was injured.

Can you explain why Sturt signed a two extra year in May 2019 and Valente is still uncontacted? Sturt didn't play a single AFL at that stage.

Action speak louder than words. If he is as good as you say, why isn't he in the team?

Serong, Brayshaw, Cerra, and Young all played early.

Sorry mate, but Valente isn't in the same class as the players above.

Blakely, and Acres have played in front of him. Therefore, he is down the pecking order in a midfield is developing.
Of course I can't explain it because I don't know. I have heard agents say they advise (highly rated juniors) injured players not to sign until they play as blokes off zero games get less than those that have shown something at the level. He came to the club injured, that's my guess. I suspect you can't explain anything in this space either.

Where did I say how good he was? I'm bullish because everyone keeps blowing his horn and I rated him as a junior. I haven't seen him play meaningfully since 2018. I certainly never said he was better than any of those blokes and including Young or Acres is disingenuous since they play completely different positions. As much as I love and Andy (esp) and Cez, neither of them lit it up in their first year (except Cez at HB against Crows).

I am not projecting him to come in and win the Brownlow, I am expecting him to become a quality player over the next 3-4 years. The first step of that is getting a debut, but clearly our midfield is going alright.
 

Sweetback

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Gotta mention Viv Michie, three years on the list and played one game right at the end. Coming back from injury he was killing it in the WAFL but it wasn't until he moved to Melbourne that we all accepted that maybe he wasn't being held back he just might not have been good enough.
He was too busy reading books to make a proper fist of footy
 

Johnny Dalmas

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Oct 16, 2015
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Put a line through last year, he was in such bad shape physically they brought him back through the WAFL reserves IIRC. Not only that it spilled into this year and he hasn't had a proper preseason.

Serong is clearly a cut above and I have no problem with that. Can easily make the argument that he is our 3rd best mid already. Blakely we have all seen play quality midfield games in the past so I also don't have a problem with the idea he is ahead. If North or Banfield get a game in as a midfield before him, I'll concede the point.

I don't think it takes much analysis to recognise that Valente wouldn't make a good pressure forward (which is exclusively where those two have played). You might as well ask why he didn't ruck when Darcy was injured.


Of course I can't explain it because I don't know. I have heard agents say they advise (highly rated juniors) injured players not to sign until they play as blokes off zero games get less than those that have shown something at the level. He came to the club injured, that's my guess. I suspect you can't explain anything in this space either.

Where did I say how good he was? I'm bullish because everyone keeps blowing his horn and I rated him as a junior. I haven't seen him play meaningfully since 2018. I certainly never said he was better than any of those blokes and including Young or Acres is disingenuous since they play completely different positions. As much as I love and Andy (esp) and Cez, neither of them lit it up in their first year (except Cez at HB against Crows).

I am not projecting him to come in and win the Brownlow, I am expecting him to become a quality player over the next 3-4 years. The first step of that is getting a debut, but clearly our midfield is going alright.
I'm not expecting him to play as a pressure forward. But they will find a role for guys they rate.
 

Joao

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I'm not expecting him to play as a pressure forward. But they will find a role for guys they rate.
JL has said repeatedly that he wants our players to play in roles they played and excelled in as juniors. For Valente, that is inside mid. It is probably the one knock I have on him is that I don't know that he has another position.

Mitch is probably the only one playing right out of position from our young players (arguably Cez too), but he seems to have found his feet in the forward line because he is awesome.
 

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