Prediction Round 17: Changes Vs Hawks + pre-match discussion

[Freoforever86]

Don’t mind Banfield in for a bit of fwd pressure.

Would have liked to see one of Hughes or Young in too though.

Hopefully both in next week

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I’ve watched a lot of Peel games and IMO Valente is well off AFL and O’Driscoll is barely keeping himself in the Peel team (at this stage in his career) but agree Crapden is not the answer if we want to play finals


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I'm not sure "Crapden" is helping anybody or really required. Dude still tries his heart out for the club and the names are a bit overkill.

O'Driscoll I think is now one of Peel's best each week after a very average start

 

[FreoMatt]

Okay, so question for people who aren't ignoramuses when it come to the nuts and bolts of footy. Goal-kicking aside, the key problem has been slow starts. The eye suggests that the lethargy (let's call it) is, if not confined to the midfield, then felt foremost and most significantly at the centre bounce, if only because that's where everything starts. Certainly, my memory is of badly losing Q1 centre clearances in both Carlton games, the derby, plus more than one or two others.

With a starting quartet of Darcy plus any three of Fyfe, Mundy, Brayshaw and Serong (and Cerra), what/who, specifically, is the problem? Is it that Serong's run-with efforts aren't impacting the clearance (even if he might be beating his player)? Is it that Fyfe and/or Mundy are still half asleep? Is it lethargy, or is it structure, hence pre-game analysis and preparation (coaching)?

I'd love to have the time, stats, access to vision and tech to be able to analyse each and every Q1 centre bounce in losing games and see how it unfolded, but Kayo subscription aside I have none of those things. Going only on (untrained) eye and (fallible) memory, then, I have this suspicion that Darcy — who is great; this is not a shot at him — often "works himself into the game" and then "starts to get on top of his opponent", which suggests that he doesn't start on top. Anyone else see or remember it that way? How much of the slow starts could be chalked up to that?

I’ve been thinking the same thing, 5 games this year (Melb, Lions,Essendon, Port, Carlton) we have been down 3-5 goals early in the game, then come back to win (or even up) the last 3 quarters but still lose the game. Also noticed Mundy (I think) has started on bench for last few games


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[jusjoshin]

out: s**t kicking
in good kicking

Not holding out much hope, I've been calling for this change all season.

 

[Scham]

out: sh*t kicking
in good kicking

Not holding out much hope, I've been calling for this change all season.

The one change that we've made isn't going to help in that area.

 

[estibador]

I'd actually take that.

I'd prefer the opposite though. We really need to start conquering some of these hoodoos away from home.

 

[Freomaniac]

The Tas government is meant to be re-signing a new three year deal soon so you may be stuck here a bit longer yet unfortunately.

Wait a minute? The Tassie government is renewing a 3 year deal for hosting games in the AFL?

Is it just hawks or North or both?

 

[Freomaniac]

I’ve watched a lot of Peel games and IMO Valente is well off AFL and O’Driscoll is barely keeping himself in the Peel team (at this stage in his career) but agree Crapden is not the answer if we want to play finals


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Mitch Crowden isn't exactly the worse player on our list. I would of put him on a forward pocket or Forward flank. Let him get his 10-15 disposals and hope he kicks 2 or 3 goals.

I am hoping Luke valente at least has one AFL game before he is delisted at the end of this season.

I mean giro will get his 20-15 disposals a game in WAFL level but he should be a chance too

 

[Tbonefreo]

Mitch Crowden isn't exactly the worse player on our list. I would of put him on a forward pocket or Forward flank. Let him get his 10-15 disposals and hope he kicks 2 or 3 goals.

I am hoping Luke valente at least has one AFL game before he is delisted at the end of this season.

I mean giro will get his 20-15 disposals a game in WAFL level but he should be a chance too

Who is the worst player on our list?

 

[Freomaniac]

I'd prefer the opposite though. We really need to start conquering some of these hoodoos away from home.

I sort of agree with you in a way.

Still remember that 2010 season. Had the swans twice. Beat them at the SCG then lost to them late in the season at home.

I mean if we had Essendon twice. I don't mind losing to them in Perth by 40-50 points then beat them by 10-20 points in docklands or MCG.

I won't be surprised if Freo get North twice and the away game is at Tassie. Or we get north just once and it's in Tasmania anyway.

I'm keen to get a win there. I'm glad we beat the crows in Adelaide this season for the 1st time since 2015. I would love to get our 1st win vs port at Adelaide oval too

 

[Bring back Drum]

Mitch Crowden isn't exactly the worse player on our list. I would of put him on a forward pocket or Forward flank. Let him get his 10-15 disposals and hope he kicks 2 or 3 goals.

I am hoping Luke valente at least has one AFL game before he is delisted at the end of this season.

I mean giro will get his 20-15 disposals a game in WAFL level but he should be a chance too

I’ve got some good news & some bad news on Valente............

 

[Madas]

Other than the fact Hill really is done so should be counted as the least useful.
Further clarification I’ve never seen Thomas or Valente play so can’t judge Also can barely remember Bainfield so may have a bit of recency Bias .

For me it’s Giro .
Never was a huge fan .

 

[ignoramus]

Hasn't Mundy started on the bench for the last two games?

I’ve been thinking the same thing, 5 games this year (Melb, Lions,Essendon, Port, Carlton) we have been down 3-5 goals early in the game, then come back to win (or even up) the last 3 quarters but still lose the game. Also noticed Mundy (I think) has started on bench for last few games

Time to start starting games with Mundy in the centre, perhaps?

 

[Freomaniac]

Who is the worst player on our list?

Hard to say.... Depends on the situation.

If its out of the injured players, Maybe Stephen Hill as he is at the end of the season. Been a good servant though.

As for the ones currently unavailable, I wont comment on guys like Thomas or Valente as they have not played dockers games yet. As of right now, As much as I like him, Ethan Hughes. Like Darcy tucker, I have seen him Butcher the ball that leads to turnovers and opposition goals.

Banfield and Blakely both have gone backwards since the start of 2020.

Ironic that I mention hughes as I would of considered him as a possibility to play as a medium forward this week.

 

[Mr Taswegian]

Wait a minute? The Tassie government is renewing a 3 year deal for hosting games in the AFL?

Is it just hawks or North or both?

This is for both teams but the government have just said it's a good chance so not at all certain.

 

[stax on the mull]

Someone has to replace Bewley on the wing - not replace what he contributed last week, but play the role of a winger and pick up around 20 possessions. If its Cerra as named, then I guess Fyfe and Mundy spend most of their time in the middle, similar to last week.

Their midfield could match it with ours on a good day and their smaller defenders could provided some good rebound (at least "on paper" it looks quite good) with Burgoyne, Scrimshaw, Jiath and Hardwick.

Banfield likely to play as a 3rd tall as much as he can, (maybe just to try and not get outmarked) but I don't see any glaring mis-matches in Hawthorn's defence with the inclusion of Grainger-Barras. Frost and Hartigan most likely take on Treacy and Lobb.

Lobb should have a bit too much reach overhead for any of the Hawthorn defenders unless McEvoy drops back - as he may do, since they have 2 rucks.

With O'Brien and Lewis missing, Jeka and Koschitzke are virtually rookie tall forwards - so Logue and Pearce should be able to handle them. Moore got a few goals against us last time and I guess Brockman is a bit of X-factor - but nothing that's going to beat us all day long. I'd be more worried if they had someone like Wingard in there who might just turn up and play well against us - and the same if they had Impey in the back half.

The only issue for our back line might be how they use their 2nd ruck as we don't have a 3rd tall defender and would have to use Ryan in that role.

Now Tassie want their own side, Hawthorn shouldn't garner that much local support and we have the Moose factor.

Are the Hawk fans allowed to travel?

Anyway, think our lads will be focused to put in a strong effort for Fyfe's 200th.

 

[wakojako]

Someone has to replace Bewley on the wing - not replace what he contributed last week, but play the role of a winger and pick up around 20 possessions. If its Cerra as named, then I guess Fyfe and Mundy spend most of their time in the middle, similar to last week.

Their midfield could match it with ours on a good day and their smaller defenders could provided some good rebound (at least on paper it looks quite good) with Burgoyne, Scrimshaw, Jiath and Hardwick.

Banfield likely to play as a 3rd tall as much as he can, (maybe just try and not get outmarked) but I don't see any glaring mis-matches in Hawthorn's defence with the inclusion of Grainger-Barras. Frost and Hartigan most likely take on Treacy and Lobb.

Lobb should have a bit too much reach overhead for any of the Hawthorn defenders unless McEvoy drops back - as he may do, since they have 2 rucks.

With O'Brien and Lewis missing, Jeka and Koschitzke are virtually rookie tall forwards - so Logue and Pearce should be able to handle them. Moore got a few goals against us last time and I guess Brockman is a bit of X-factor - but nothing that's going to beat us all day long. I'd be more worried if they had someone like Wingard in there who might just turn up and play well against us - and the same if they had Impey in the back half.

The only issue for our back line might be how they use their 2nd ruck as we don't have a 3rd tall defender and would have to use Ryan in that role.

Now Tassie want their own side, Hawthorn shouldn't garner that much local support and we have the Moose factor.

Are the Hawk fans allowed to travel?

Anyway, think our lads will be focused to put in a strong effort for Fyfe's 200th.

Like the effort they put in last week when finals ia on the line

 

[wakojako]

Anyway, think our lads will be focused to put in a strong effort for Fyfe's 200th.

Like the effort they put in last week when finals is on the line

 

[stax on the mull]

Like the effort they put in last week when finals is on the line

I think finals are still on the line.

 

[wakojako]

I think finals are still on the line.

Okay do me a favour and rewatch the Carlton game. Can you honestly say that our team deserves to play finals?

 

[stax on the mull]

Okay do me a favour and rewatch the Carlton game. Can you honestly say that our team deserves to play finals?

I don't understand your question about who deserves to be in the final 8 and who doesn't. I pretty much hate all the other teams in the competition - so at any point I could argue that certain teams don't deserve to be there, but at the end of the day its the number of wins and losses that decides that .

Last week we were only playing for a spot in the 8 at the end of Round 16. The fact that we lost - and according to comments by Fyfe and Darcy over the last couple of days, finals are still the aim, - then that goal would be "on the line" even more than it was last week.

I'm just saying there's another strong motivating factor this week - and that I think we will beat Hawthorn.

 

[FreoRicci]

I think this could potentially be Launceston's lowest ever AFL crowd,do people know how many tickets have been presold?

After humiliating Freo, I think the mayor? With not wanting us to ever play there again, wouldn’t be surprised. Launceston deserves it. AFL keeps sending us down there, no idea why

 

[FreoRicci]

We really lifted last week once Serong was relieved of his run with role. We could possibly being playing a tagger in Banfield as well.

And why not ? Banfield has the tank and is a scrapper. Just chuck him there. Cerra and Serong would get off the chain

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Someone has to replace Bewley on the wing - not replace what he contributed last week, but play the role of a winger and pick up around 20 possessions. If its Cerra as named, then I guess Fyfe and Mundy spend most of their time in the middle, similar to last week.

Their midfield could match it with ours on a good day and their smaller defenders could provided some good rebound (at least "on paper" it looks quite good) with Burgoyne, Scrimshaw, Jiath and Hardwick.

Banfield likely to play as a 3rd tall as much as he can, (maybe just to try and not get outmarked) but I don't see any glaring mis-matches in Hawthorn's defence with the inclusion of Grainger-Barras. Frost and Hartigan most likely take on Treacy and Lobb.

Lobb should have a bit too much reach overhead for any of the Hawthorn defenders unless McEvoy drops back - as he may do, since they have 2 rucks.

With O'Brien and Lewis missing, Jeka and Koschitzke are virtually rookie tall forwards - so Logue and Pearce should be able to handle them. Moore got a few goals against us last time and I guess Brockman is a bit of X-factor - but nothing that's going to beat us all day long. I'd be more worried if they had someone like Wingard in there who might just turn up and play well against us - and the same if they had Impey in the back half.

The only issue for our back line might be how they use their 2nd ruck as we don't have a 3rd tall defender and would have to use Ryan in that role.

Now Tassie want their own side, Hawthorn shouldn't garner that much local support and we have the Moose factor.

Are the Hawk fans allowed to travel?

Anyway, think our lads will be focused to put in a strong effort for Fyfe's 200th.

McEvoy Jeka and Kossie forward should have you stretched with Pearce Logue and probably Ryan.

Hartigan should use his size v Lobb and Frost and Treacy with the more mobility and a bit of mongrel. DGB third tall intercepting

Moore and Brockman with Breust will be good not sure on who plays on them for Freo care to help?

 

[jimboslice]

Boy Langmuir makes some interesting decisions. Banfield? Out of everyone? Okay.